582
FXUS63 KICT 210746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and dry through Friday.

- A pattern change arrives this weekend with below normal
  temperatures lingering through next week.

- Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The mid/upper ridge remains anchored over the Central Great
Basin/Southwest while the Central Plains remain on the eastern
periphery of this feature in weak northerly mid/upper flow. This
will yield another day with seasonably temperatures and dry weather
with highs in the lower 90s. As we move into Friday we expect much
of the same, although a slight increase in H100-H5 thickness is
anticipated leading to rising temperatures, especially across our
central KS counties where mid 90s are anticipated. For areas along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike we`ll see upper 80s/around 90 once
again.

Sat-Sun...A vigorous mid/upper trough over Ontario will move toward
the Great Lakes area early on Saturday. This will drive a frontal
boundary southward across the Central Plains early in the day on
Saturday. A few showers or storms may accompany the front, but
widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Shear/buoyancy profiles
do not support severe weather at this time. Mild conditions are
anticipated in the wake of the front with highs in the mid and upper
80s for most areas. As we move into Sunday, better chances for
precipitation may remain west across the High Plains but some low
pops were maintained, especially in central KS. Another pleasant
late Summer day is expected with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Mon-Wed...We continue to see mixed signals as we move through early
next week. A decent shortwave trough will arrive on Monday bringing
more widespread showers and storms to the area. But as we move
through the middle of the week, the effective frontal boundary may
slip south and this could result in higher probabilities for more
widespread showers and storms south of the area Tue-Wed but some
modest pops were maintained given the uncertainty. Much cooler air
is also anticipated with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
through the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain minimal through
this TAF period.

Not much is expected to change in the overall pattern for
Thursday, which a surface high remaining over the Great Lakes
Region and VFR conditions continuing. Very light southeast and
east winds will be in place area wide.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL