864
FXUS63 KICT 150513
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1213 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry to close out the week.

- Active pattern expected to emerge this weekend, bringing
  chances for showers and severe storms through the beginning of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a mid/upper trough
tracking into the Central Rockies as strong flow persists over the
southern CONUS. A surface low resides in northwest Kansas, resulting
in gusty southerly winds over the eastern half of the state. These
will gradually shift around to the west and then northwest later
tonight as the system and associated Pac front/dryline move to the
east. No precipitation is expected with the passage of this
boundary, though areas in western and central Kansas could see a
brief window of gusts up to 40-45 mph shortly after midnight due to
a strengthening post-frontal pressure gradient. These should subside
after a few hours as the system departs the region.

Conditions continue to look dry and seasonably warm to close out the
work week, with high temperatures anticipated to reach the low to
middle 80s Thursday and Friday. Attention then shifts to Saturday
evening into Sunday morning as 850 mb WAA begins to overspread the
area and promote the development of showers and storms. Elevated
instability exceeding 1500 J/kg and 30-40 kts of 1-7 km shear will
support storms capable of producing severe hail heading into
Sunday morning. Continued development of showers and storms is
expected into the afternoon, with a chance for severe activity
in the late afternoon and evening contingent on the setup of a
dryline over central and western Kansas. This dryline will again
become the driver of strong to severe storm potential on
Monday. Details this far out remain unclear, though to this
point guidance suggests ample deep-layer shear and buoyancy for
severe storms capable of all hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A Pacific cold front will bring gusty winds to the region late
tonight before subsiding during the predawn hours. Some gusts to
around 50 mph may be possible through 1 AM in parts of central
Kansas. Blowing dirt may reduce visibilities to around 4-5 miles
briefly at KRSL and KGBD. Meanwhile in southeast KS we could see
some LLWS at the KCNU site as the low level jet ramps up
tonight. Breezy westerly winds and VFR will prevail during the
day on Thursday.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM