539
FXUS63 KICT 291857
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
157 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of rounds of strong to severe storms this afternoon
  and again late tonight.

- Lingering storms possible on Monday across southeast Kansas.

- Slight cool down to last through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A rather messy setup for scattered strong to severe storms is
shaping up across the forecast area. Robust thunderstorm activity
could begin by early this afternoon across eastern Kansas, then a
second round is possible late tonight into the overnight hours as
storms roll off the High Plains.

Currently, there are several features that are being noted across
the area. The first is a robust outflow boundary that has absolutely
hauled southward this morning out of southeastern Nebraska and into
eastern Kansas. Junky showers and storms have accompanied the
boundary all morning, and now more robust convection has commenced
along the boundary as of 2PM this afternoon. Additionally, there are
a couple of remnant MCVs: one across central Kansas and another
across northern Oklahoma. Both are drifting east-northeastward into
a quickly destabilizing airmass along and east of I-135. Given weak
shear and a bit of capping, its still a touch unclear how many, if
any, locations along and east of I-135 will see strong or severe
storm activity this afternoon. However, with the necessary forcing
mechanisms in place, chances are increasing for more widespread
thunderstorm activity across the aforementioned areas over the next
few hours. The main concerns this afternoon will be wind gusts up to
60 mph and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding in
some spots.

Meanwhile, a fairly stout deep layer trough is trekking its way
across the northern plains today and will serve as a catalyst for
another round of thunderstorm development across the High Plains
later this afternoon and evening. The storms will progress westward
tonight into a healthy axis of instability that will generally
reside along the I-70 corridor. Around 2500-3500 J/kg of instability
along with 20-25 knots of shear should support this MCS as is
progress across central Kansas late tonight through the overnight
hours. The potential for 60-70 mph wind gusts will be the main
concern, and locally heavy rainfall could cause some localized
flooding, especially in areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Lingering showers and storms could last until the morning or early
afternoon hours on Monday across eastern and southeast Kansas, but
this activity is not expected to be severe.

In the wake of today`s system, cooler temperatures will be in store
for Monday night through Tuesday night along with drier conditions,
especially on Tuesday. With the axis of deep, rich moisture shunted
into Oklahoma and Texas, rain chances will be very low (at or under
15%) and will be limited to far southern Kansas Monday and Tuesday.
By mid-week, the pattern becomes ill-defined (welcome to Summer!)
but global models somehwat indicate a weak mid/upper ridge building
into the central plains for Wednesday through Friday with very low
periodic chances (at or under 15%) for a stray shower or storm
mainly limited to southern and southeast Kansas. This will also
allow for temperatures to recover to around average for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Concerns continue to increase regarding further TS development
over the next few hours impacting all sites with the exception
of KRSL & KGBD although these sites will most likely be impacted
by TS later tonight with a secondary round of storms moving in
from the high plains. As an outflow boundary moves southward
across the region a few storms have formed and are moving
northeastward. Expecting this trend to continue and increase in
coverage over the next few hours although confidence in this
scenario is not particularly high. If these storms do continue
to develop they will most likely impact KHUT & KICT shortly
after TAF issuance with KCNU perhaps a bit later as storms move
in from the north over southeast Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...SGS