222
FXUS64 KHUN 132330
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

East of I-65 there remains a persistent area of mostly stratiform,
light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorm activity initiating
west of I-65. These storms are initiating in an airmass that has
not been worked over from morning activity and CAPE values
remain between 1000-2000 J/kg. Early evening storms will be
focused in this area before tapering off after 7 PM. Localized
flooding issues and brief gusty winds will be the primary threats
with any stronger thunderstorms that develop but severe weather
is not expected. As such the Flood Watch will continue through 7
PM for counties north the TN River, Marshall, and Dekalb counties.
Fog development is not expected currently with dense cloud cover
overnight, but saturated soils will support fog if cloud cover is
less than currently forecast. Lows will fall to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 928 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

We will begin a bit of a pattern shift during the short term
period as low pressure off the northern Atlantic coast is finally
pushed north and the upper trough over the eastern US becomes less
pronounced. At the same time, high pressure will build west over
the Gulf while another high shifts east through the central Plains
and into the Midwest. This will ultimately work to lower rain
chances each day while also increasing temps as we head into the
weekend. Although rain chances will be lower Thursday (capped at
40%) we will still have to monitor for flooding especially in
areas that receive heavy rainfall today. Rain chances lower to
20-30% on Friday as highs reach the low to mid 90s and heat
indices approach the 105 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A strong area of high pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature across the Tennessee Valley this weekend into early next
week. Subsidence from the ridge will largely suppress convection
and cloud cover. As a result, high temperatures will return to
the low to mid 90s each day, with a few locations potentially
reaching the upper 90s by Sunday/Monday. The combination of these
very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will
create heat index values between 100-105 degrees across much of
the area, including several locations above 105 degrees. This will
create moderate to major heat impacts during this window. Heat
Advisory products may be needed for portions of the area during
this time frame, particularly in northwest/north central Alabama
and those with plans this weekend should keep heat safety tips on
their mind.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Shower activity across the region was decreasing in coverage and
intensity. For the most part, showers should cease by the late
evening. Lower altitude clouds in the IFR/MVFR AGL, with some VSBY
reductions are possible in the late night around sunrise Thu. VFR
conditions should return later Thu morning. The heating and
subsequent destabilization should result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thu afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001-005-006-
     008>010.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RSB