267
FXUS64 KHUN 021132
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Early morning satellite shows some fog has formed over the river
valley areas of NE AL, but not as widespread as we saw last night.
For now we will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory but be sure to
drive with caution if heading out early this morning. Current
temperatures have dropped into the upper 60s, making this the
coolest airmass we have felt in almost a month. Dense stratus
forming over northern GA and eastern TN may mitigate fog
development later this morning. Expect cloud cover to increase
through the morning into the afternoon hours, helping keep
temperatures in the 80s. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains
on track.

Previous discussion:
With convergence along the frontal boundary stronger well to our
south, the best chances of showers with heavier downpours should
remain well to our south during Saturday. But enough Gulf moisture
seeping northward, along with daytime heating and resultant
instability, will produce more showers and thunderstorms on Sat.
The best rain chances will be over NE AL with 60-80 percent rain
chances, with 15-25 percent chances over NW AL. Some areas
generally more to the east could receive enough rainfall that
could result in flooding. With a mix of clouds (more to the east),
high temps to close out the week should range from the low/mid 80s
higher elevations and east, to mid/upper 80s west. Expect more
comfortable heat indices only in the mid 80s to the mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

During the weekend into early next week, generally lower heights
over NE Canada to Greenland will produce a general troughing
pattern over the eastern CONUS. With lower heights, a "cooler"
trend in comparison to earlier in the week will continue. Chances
of showers will be lower Saturday night with a loss of daytime
heating. However they will not go away completely as a greater
lower level moisture returns from the Gulf. This additional
moisture will make for a wetter day areawide Sunday. Rain chances
should range from 40-50 percent west to 60-70 percent east. With
more clouds and greater rain chances, a bit cooler with highs on
Sun from the mid 70 higher elevations to mid 80s lower elevations.

Rain chances should diminish somewhat Sun evening with a loss of
daytime instability. Another muggy night can be expected with lows
in low/mid 60s. The start of a new work week, Monday will feature
partly to mostly cloudy skies with low/moderate rain chances (~30%
west to 60% east), especially in the afternoon. High temperatures
will "only" range in the mid 70s to low 80s. Expect lower rain
chances Mon night with lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

An amplified, skinny upper shortwave trough looks to progress
over the Southeast to begin the long term period. However, a stout
upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will build eastward through
the week to include the central Plains by Friday, with its outer
edge approaching the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a
boundary will meander near the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure is slated to build south from New England over the
Appalachians through the week. This may inhibit the aforementioned
boundary from progressing back north by mid to late week.

For sensible weather for the Tennessee Valley, expect increasing
temperatures through Friday as well as daily chances of showers and
storms. Although, shower/storm chances look to gradually decrease
through late week due to the approach of the previously-mentioned
upper ridge. At this time, no severe weather is anticipated due to
the lack of sufficient shear. But, enough instability will allow for
the development of at least general thunderstorms. As is usual this
time of year, any storm that is able to become strong will have the
capability of producing some gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain. Remain weather aware and go indoors if you hear thunder
or see lightning! Lastly, pleasant high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s on Tuesday are forecast to warm back into the upper 80s
to lower 90s by Friday. Enjoy the lower daytime temperatures while
they last!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

We are monitoring a low stratus deck building over northeast AL
this morning that may eventually begin to impact HSV and even as
far west as MSL. LIFR cigs have been observed with this cloud
deck and amendments will be made if this occurs. There is a
medium chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily along
and east of the KHSV terminal, and heavy downpours could cause
reductions to MVFR conditions or lower. Otherwise, expect mostly
cloudy conditions through the remainder of the day with light and
variable winds. Low stratus is forecast to move into the area
later tonight, causing a reduction to IFR to LIFR cigs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25