454
FXUS64 KHUN 230133
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
833 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A cold front was dropping southeast into TN and southern MO early
this evening as WNW 5h flow persists. This will bring a stream of
mid and high clouds into the TN valley tonight. There is even some
model support of a band of high based showers (more likely virga)
overnight. For now, will keep the forecast dry with PoP less than
10%. But like last night, WNW flow can surprise many times over.
Otherwise, with dew points in the upper 40s to middle 50s, low
temperatures will still dip into the 50s overnight, despite
periodic cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday brings more seasonably cool weather with highs in the
middle to upper 70s as the frontal boundary sinks south. Clouds
will also tend to decrease. The pattern then becomes more
favorable for multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Friday night into Saturday. Then again on Sunday into
early Monday. The surface boundary will attempt to lift northward,
but will struggle with outflow/cold pools keeping this from
occurring with much confidence. Thus, the surface warm sector may
remain mainly just to our south through early Sunday. It`s still
unclear if the warm sector will surge north on Sunday afternoon
which could increase the risk of stronger storms due to greater
surface based instability. Deep layer wind fields will tend to
decrease overall by Sunday, which may lower the risk of severe
weather. But this may also slow storm motions and increase risk of
excessive rainfall with time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Sunday night an upper level ridge will continue to translate east
across the Gulf coast. Along the northern edge of this, additional
shortwaves look to ripple through the TN Vally on Monday. This
unfortunately will make for a rather wet holiday with consistent rain
and thunder chances throughout the day. These rain and thunder
chances will be further supported by an approaching cold front
nearing the area Monday evening. While the passage of the front does
look to maintain rain chances through the evening, long range models
are rather pessimistic regarding an environment supportive of severe
weather. Rather, model guidance suggests we will have limited
instability due to the ongoing rain throughout the day.

While the front looks to pass on Tuesday morning, it looks to weaken
as it progresses SE. Thus, low rain and storms chances will be
maintained through the long term forecast as the front decays to our
SE. Aside from the likely overcast conditions through mid week, the
additional byproduct will be mild temperatures across the area for
mid May. Temperatures look to remain near or below 80 each day
making for slightly cooler than seasonable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF period
at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RAD