690
FXUS64 KHUN 151207
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
607 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

 - High rain chances will continue through this afternoon. No
   severe weather nor flash flooding is forecast.

 - Dry and mild conditions are forecast through the mid-week
   period.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 154 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Scattered light showers continue to track northeast across the
area although we remain in a bit of a dry slot ahead of an
approaching sfc low progged to move across or just south of the
TN Valley later this morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
currently being observed south of the I-20 corridor, but luckily
for us locally instability remains a lot more limited and only a
few rumbles of thunder are forecast through the morning hours.
Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will move into
the area later this morning, but it is worth noting that the
aforementioned dry slot has really cut down our expected rainfall
totals. With amounts ranging from 0.4-0.7" no flooding or
significant rises on area rivers and streams is expected. Elevated
instability will remain limited through the afternoon hours
keeping thunderstorm chances low but still in the forecast
mainly south of the TN River. With close proximity to the sfc low,
expect southeast winds to be breezy, gusting to 20-25mph at times.

Strong WAA with this system will support highs in the upper
50s/lower 60s despite overcast skies and rain throughout the day.
Rainfall should start to come to an end from west to east late
this afternoon and end area wide shortly after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

At the start of the short term period strong high pressure over
Mexico looks to build amounting to mid level ridging taking over
much of the lower 48. Locally this will lead to a much welcomed
warming trend with temps rising into the high 60s on Monday and
reaching the low 70s on Tuesday. Unfortunately the warm temps won`t
be paired with sunny skies come Tuesday. Cloud cover will
increase from the west as it shears off of a distant mid level low
moving through the northern Plains. Even with the increase in
cloud cover, conditions will remain dry through the short term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A nearly zonal flow should be in place across the greater CONUS,
albeit with slight troughing west and ridging east late Tuesday. An
upper level disturbance involved with a troughing feature off of the
southern California coast will move inland during the course of the
mid and latter week. This disturbance and high altitude subtropical
moisture from the Pacific basin will bring an increase in clouds
across the Tennessee Valley into the late week.

In response to a deep southerly flow and warming trend, it should not
be as chilly Tuesday night with lows in the low/mid 50s. Despite more
clouds than sun, higher height values and a southerly flow will help
high temperatures for the mid week rise into lower 70s. Slightly
milder conditions are expected Thursday, with highs rising into the
low/mid 70s, and lows in the mid/upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday
nights.

The moisture advection from the Pacific, as well as from the Gulf of
America will bring lower end shower chances to the area beginning
Wednesday night. Rain chances should remain below 30 percent through
Thursday across the area. A stronger system taking shape over the
Southern Plains and Rockies, along with a stronger inflow of moisture
will bring higher rain chances Thursday night into Friday night. A
cold front should begin moving across the area Friday night into
early Saturday. Far as deterministic models show, the ECMWF was the
fastest showing that feature, with the GFS/Canadian about 6-hours
slower. This front could bring some thunder mixed in with more
widespread showers before daybreak Saturday. Looks like the winter
season is not quite done with, with highs on Saturday only in the
lower 60s and lows Saturday night around 40. Taking a peek ahead, it
looks even colder for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

MVFR conditions have prevailed over the area this morning as light
to moderate rain moves through. There have been no thunderstorms
observed so far with only low chances for thunder in the forecast
through the remainder of the day. Cigs will lower to IFR or
potentially LIFR this morning and amendments may be needed
throughout the day especially in the event of any heavier rain
bands. SE winds will gust to 20-25kts at times and shift to the
north later this afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast
to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25