754
FXUS64 KHUN 160241
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - Low chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday climb to
   medium chances Friday and Saturday.

 - Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday
   before gradually warming this weekend.

 - Heat Risk will reach the moderate category over the weekend.
   Heat index values are forecast to peak in the upper 90s to
   lower 100s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Only a couple of remaining small showers remain these should
dissipate overnight. We are expecting areas of low clouds and
patchy fog to develop overnight within the very moist and light
flow conditions. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The upper level low that has shifted west-northwest over the past
couple of days has become an open wave trough axis over the Ozarks
and will lift northwest into the central Plains today, then
ingested into the northwesterly flow at the base of the upper
trough in the eastern Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, multiple
models show an MCV developing over GA resulting from ongoing
convection along an exists shear axis. The models shows this MCV
shift slowly west into western GA on Thursday afternoon with an
inverted trough axis extending into the TN Valley. This pivots
further west on Friday, increasing the chances of showers and
thunderstorms. A wave also develops in the northeastern Gulf which
may influence this trough axis to move further south and southwest
Saturday. In either case, low to medium shower and thunderstorm
chances exist Friday into Saturday, with highest chances across
the eastern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will remain
consistent, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in
the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A deep upper low pressure system over eastern Canada this weekend
will slowly weaken as we go into the new week. The presence of the
low will in part induce mean troughing along the eastern seaboard
from Sunday through the middle of next week. A broad area of surface
low pressure should be situated over the southeast region over the
weekend. This will create unsettled weather across the Tennessee
Valley to start the new week. Moisture associated with an area of
low pressure over the SE will bring scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm chances on Sun. The higher rain chances will be more to
the east, with lesser shower coverage to the west. With a mix of sun
and clouds, seasonably warm or hot conditions are expected Sun, with
highs from the upper 80s east to lower 90s west, and heat index
values from the upper 90s to 104 degrees in a few spots.

The SE area of low pressure should weaken as we go into Mon, along
with mean east coast troughing moving a bit more to the east. This
will help return mainly drier conditions to the area for Mon-Wed.
Under partly cloudy conditions, high temperatures for this period
should range mostly in the lower 90s, with some mid 90s on Tue. Heat
index values should range from the upper 90s to 104 for the Mon-Wed
timeframe. The heat could become an issue on Tue, with an area around
greater Huntsville rising into the 105-106 degree. This period is too
far out to consider Heat Advisory this issuance, but something to
keep in mind for next week. Rather warm low temperatures are expected
in the period, in the low/mid 70s. A return of deeper moisture could
bring low end chances of showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Isolated -SHRA will dissipate by 01Z. VFR conditions are expected
until late tonight when lower clouds and patchy FG are forecast to
develop. There is a high chance of ceilings of 010-015agl (MVFR)
at KMSL and KHSV from 11-16Z. Will reassess the FG potential this
evening for the next update, but confidence remains higher on
lower clouds than FG for the terminals. Ceilings will scatter and
lift to VFR by 16Z. There is a low chance of -SHRA and TSRA again
Thursday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17