595
FXUS64 KHUN 082306
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
606 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

 - Medium chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms are
   expected Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Low
   chances for strong to severe storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Cloud cover continues to stream northeastward from convection
firing along the Gulf Coast. Some light showers have for the most
part only advanced as far north as central AL. A dry airmass
across northern AL will make it difficult for any shower to push
into our local forecast area. However, some hires model guidance
does show a few showers reaching our southeastern zones.
Therefore, have kept the blended very low chance (10-25%) PoPs
for areas south of the TN River. Otherwise, most places stay dry
tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

As we head into the weekend, a weak shortwave is forecast to push
through the area on Saturday. Moisture is limited, especially
north of the Tennessee River. Therefore, for areas south of the
river a very low chance (5-15%) of isolated showers. Both warm air
and moisture advection behind this shortwave begins to increase
on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. With southerly sfc
flow, temperatures are expected to warm up into the low to mid
80s on Sunday. This will increase SBCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg as
the front passes through during the afternoon/evening hours. The
good news is that severe storms are not expected, but medium
chances (40-70%) for showers and storms will continue Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Guidance is more convergent on a more amplified longwave trough
axis and parent low moving from the Ohio Valley east through the
area Sunday night into Monday. This could bring additional showers
and thunderstorm activity to the area during that period, before
much cooler air pushes back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both HSV and MSL until about 08z
on Saturday. Mid-lower level clouds are forecast to move into the
area before daybreak on Saturday. These clouds are expected to
lower ceilings to about 1000 feet, putting both terminals squarely
in MVFR conditions. Some model guidance does hint at even lower
ceilings (possibly IFR conditions), though confidence is low at
this time and will reassess the next TAF issuance. PoPs are low
as rain is expected to remain south of the area. Other than that,
winds are expected to remain fairly light and variable overnight.
By about 17-18z on Saturday, clouds should begin to move out of
the area, bringing both terminals back into VFR conditions, with
winds around 5 kts from the SW.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...Serre