180
FXUS64 KHUN 130746
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
246 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mid-level high pressure, currently centered over the northern
Gulf, will build northward throughout the day today. This will
allow for similar weather as yesterday with little change to the
hot, humid airmass currently over the Tennessee Valley. This was
shown by the 13/00z sounding taken at BMX which had a PWAT of 2.00
inches putting it above the 90th percentile for that day. With
the addition of daytime heating, CAPE values will climb to
1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon with minimal shear in place in this
synoptic regime. The result will be another afternoon with medium
chances between 30%-60% for pulse-type thunderstorm activity.
Lightning, brief gusty winds, and localized nuisance flooding will
be the main threats. Initiation late in the afternoon will likely
be driven by outflow boundary interaction with weak, westerly
storm motion. High temps will remain in the low 90s today with max
heat index values this afternoon reaching the upper 90s to around
100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Fairly typical summertime pattern is in place, much like we have
seen the last several days. A 5h anticyclone along the eastern
Gulf Coast will narrow and lift northward very slowly into
southern MS or southwest AL Monday, and into north AL Tuesday.
This keeps the trough axis and shortwave well west of the MS
River, and ridge rider MCVs moving through the OH Valley into the
central Appalachians. I expect limited convective activity into
Monday with the ridge placement. But given the strong instability
and moisture a couple of small clusters may develop producing
outflows that trigger additional thunderstorms surrounding the
original. By Tuesday, one or more weak MCVs will turn back
southwest from the central Appalachians, sparking convection that
could start to migrate southwest into eastern AL perhaps as far
northeast AL and southern middle TN. High temperatures will reach
the lower to perhaps middle 90s each day, especially Tuesday with
lows in the lower 70s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Without any significant synoptic features to disrupt our current
pattern, the forecast will remain largely unchanged as we head into
the long term forecast. For a majority of the forecast period we will
again find ourself sandwiched between mid level troughing to our
north and ridging to our south. At the surface this will amount to
hot and humid conditions with continued daily chances for
afternoon thunderstorms. While the weather conditions listed above
have become quite familiar for residents of the TN Valley this
summer, their inherent risk still warrants discussing. Starting
with heat and humidity, high pressure to our SE will allow high
dew points in the mid 70s to remain situated. This paired with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day will easily push
apparent temperatures above 100 degrees for most locations. We
will be keeping a close on on Wednesday and Thursday should a Heat
Advisory be needed. Regardless of any heat products, individuals
should continue to practice proper heat and sun safety each day.

While we will retain a low to medium (30-60%) chance of afternoon
shower and thunderstorms each day, the good news is that we are not
forecasting a widespread severe risk at all in the long term
forecast. Rather, diurnal heating will allow for significant CAPE
each afternoon with outflow boundaries being a primary forcing
mechanism for storms. Storms that do fire up will be capable so gusty
outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. For those with
outdoor activities next week make sure to remain weather aware and
remember when thunder roars go indoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Any lingering shower and isolated storm activity has dissipated
over the last couple of hours with precipitation not expected at
the terminals overnight. There is a low chance (less than 20%) of
any vsby restrictions in BR less than 5 miles at KHSV and KMSL so
have not included in this package. Light and variable winds
tonight will be replaced by prevailing southwesterly winds between
240-270 degrees after 15z ranging from 6-9 knots. The exception
will be any gusty, erratic winds originating from convection
tomorrow afternoon after 18z. Best forecast at this time for
storms is 19z-22z at KHSV and 18z-21z at KMSL. Any thunderstorm
activity directly impacting the terminal could produce brief
restrictions in vsbys and cigs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KG