281
FXUS64 KHUN 200235
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

As an upper level low continued to barrel through the southern
Plains, the Tennessee Valley remains in an area of PVA ahead of a
deepening trough axis moving eastward into the area as we approach
the early part of the week. Dry conditions persist for now due to
the Atlantic high slowing down the progression of the
aforementioned low pressure system and subsequent cold front.
Cloud cover, however, has not been discouraged as southerly winds
bring Gulf moisture into the area. This will allow for relatively
warm low temperatures overnight-- remaining in the low to mid 60s.

Easter Sunday brings continued dry conditions ahead of the cold
front well to our west. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. As the pressure gradient
increases ahead of the incoming low pressure system, gusty winds
up to 20-25 mph are forecast as a result during the afternoon
hours and will persist through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

As the upper level low moves eastward toward the Tennessee Valley,
low to medium rain chances (20-50%) make their debut in NW AL
late Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of the cold front`s
arrival. Shower/thunderstorm chances are forecast to gradually
make their way eastward and increase throughout the late
morning/afternoon hours. While greater instability remains south
of our area, there is a low-medium chance we could have a few
stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds up to 40-50 mph
and small hail with DCAPE values around 300-500 J/kg as well as
deep low level lapse rates. In addition to this, moderate to heavy
rainfall could produce ponding of water in areas of poor drainage
or low- lying areas as PWATs near the 90th percentile per BMX
sounding climatology. Something we will be keeping an eye on to
limit strong storm potential will be how much the cloud cover and
precipitation during the morning hours limit instability during
the afternoon. Gusty, non-thunderstorm winds up to 20-25 mph
persist through Monday night as the increased pressure gradient
continues to influence the area. However, this is below local Wind
Advisory Criteria.

Medium to high rain chances (40-80%) are forecast to persist
through Tuesday as the front pushes southeastward through the
area and becomes stationary, bringing around an inch of rainfall
to the Tennessee Valley (with up to 1.25-1.5" in areas south of
the Tennessee River where heavier showers/thunderstorms are more
likely). Rainfall chances are forecast to decrease (but not
completely diminish) Tuesday night, dropping to around 30%. High
temperatures during this time remain in the 70s-80s with overnight
lows dropping into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

An unsettled pattern continues through the long term period with
several small shortwaves influencing the area, causing prolonged
low-medium rain chances through the week. After the aforementioned
cold front becomes stationary on Tuesday, it is forecast to make
its way back northwestward and return with another round of
rainfall. High temperatures through the week are forecast to
remain in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. For those who
are already tired of the warmer weather, the ongoing cloud cover
will provide relief from the heat as it persist through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period at
both KMSL and KHSV. Gusty, southerly winds up to 16-18 kts are
forecast to move into the Tennessee Valley around 14-15Z Sunday
and persist through the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC