216
FXUS64 KHUN 110855
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
355 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A weak upper low that was SE of the region late Fri has moved to
the Georgia coast. It will help a coastal storm form during the
course of this weekend and early next week. Effects from this
system should remain well to our east. Thus dry weather is
forecast this weekend, and should continue into much of next week.
Surface high pressure centered over SE Canada will extend its
influence to the SW, and control the Tennessee Valley sensible
weather. With more sun expected, high temperatures should rise
from the low/mid 70s higher elevations to mid/upper 70s the warmer
spots. Light winds early this morning should become northerly at
5-10 mph this afternoon.

An item of concern is the development of fog. Longer fall nights,
mostly clears skies, and light winds are favorable for fog
formation. Locations that will be more likely impacted include
sheltered valley locations and places near bodies of water. Fog
coverage so far was patchy (per the fog and nighttime microphysics
view. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Short range model consensus suggests that a mid-level trough
(initially positioned along the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will
progress slowly northeastward on Saturday night/Sunday, before
quickly becoming absorbed in the circulation around a more compact
trough tracking southeastward over the northern Mid- Atlantic
states by the end of the period. Well to our southwest, the center
of a strengthening subtropical high is predicted to build
northeastward across the Rio Grande Valley and into central TX,
with an increasing influence from this feature across our region
expected beginning on Sunday. In the low-levels, light north-
northeast flow will persist along the southern flank of a surface
high centered across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New
England, and this (in conjunction with NNW flow aloft around the
expanding subtropical high) will result in dry conditions.
Afternoon highs will gradually rise back into the u70s-l80s on
Sunday/Monday, with overnight lows in the m40s-l50s increasing
into the l-m 50s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the majority of the upcoming extended forecast period,
synoptic scale conditions across the TN Valley will remain
dominated by a 500-mb subtropical ridge that will weaken with time
as it expands southeastward from the southern Plains (Tuesday)
into the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea (Friday),
and a surface high (initially across the U.S.-Canadian border)
that will also weaken as it spreads southeastward into the Mid-
Atlantic states by late next week. Together, these features will
maintain dry conditions across the local forecast area, although a
notable increase in high-level cloudiness is anticipated by
Thursday night/Friday due to the onset of southwesterly flow
aloft. Highs will remain in the u70s-m80s, with lows in the l-m
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as it still appears as if clear skies and calm winds
will be favorable for development of patchy BR/FG across portions
of the TN Valley early this morning. Due to contracting dewpoint
depressions noted at both terminals, we have included a TEMPO
groups for MVFR vsby reductions btwn 9-13Z. Otherwise, a slight
increase in NNE flow is expected to occur after sunrise as a
developing area of low pressure tracks north-northeastward off the
southeastern Atlantic Coast, with only a few high-based Cu
possible during the daylight hours. Skies will clear by 22Z, with
a lgt NNE-calm wind expected Sat evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70/DD