821
FXUS64 KHUN 121709
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1109 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 944 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Warming temperatures through late week and into the weekend.

 - Low to Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 944 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The upper level trough that brought anomalous cold conditions
across the Southeast to start this work week continues to lift off
to the northeast. Sfc high pressure centered over FL will bring
westerly flow across the TN Valley. Under mostly sunny skies,
expect afternoon temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s
which is near the climatological normal for this time of year.
Afternoon boundary layer mixing will bring some wind gusts between
15-20 mph before subsiding near sunset.

Tonight, light winds and clear skies allows for ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop down into
the mid to upper 30s. Something to keep an eye on is the potential
for fog in the early morning hours as dewpoint depressions
decrease to 0-3 degrees. While fog is not anticipated to be
widespread, there may be some patchy areas of dense fog where
visibilities will drop below a mile.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 944 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Dry weather continues heading through the end of the work week. An
850mb ridge begins to amplify across the Southeast along the
western edge of the sfc high pressure centered near FL. In
response to the ridge, sfc flow becomes more southerly to
southwesterly resulting in a continued warming trend through
Friday. Expect afternoon highs to be in the upper 60s on Thursday
and back into the lower 70s on Friday. This flow pattern will also
advect in better moisture off the Gulf with dewpoints rising into
the 50s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

This weekend will start out with a busy upper level pattern.
There`s a trough off the southern part of the West Coast, another
one up in south central Canada and a third trough still anchored
in far Northeast U.S/eastern Quebec, with a ridge underneath it
all.

High pressure will keep us dry and warm on Saturday with breezy
southwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies pushing daytime highs
to unseasonably warm values in the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, the
trough in south central Canada will overcome the ridge and try to
phase in with the stubborn trough near Quebec. Its associated sfc
low in the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front through the
OH Valley, the Mid MS Valley and into the Southern Plains. Right
now, looks like low chances of precip return Sunday night with
low/medium chances on Monday and Tuesday as the cold front gets
hung up on the OH Valley to Mid MS Valley. The question is on
exactly where that front will get held up which will affect our
precip chances. One feature that will effect the front`s location
is the now cut off low that lifts out of the Four Corners and into
the Plains on Monday. After that, there is a lot of model
disagreement on location, intensity and timing so have low
confidence for Tuesday. Regardless, looks like temps will be in
the upper 60s early next week with low/medium chances for precip,
but stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions forecast to continue through the TAF period. Winds
gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon will subside this evening. There
is a low chance for some visibility reductions near sunrise
tomorrow do to fog, but for now left out of forecast due to
uncertainty in how widespread fog will be.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 19-20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...GH