237
FXUS64 KHUN 172014
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(This Afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Very hot temperatures are ongoing across the Tennessee Valley with
area observation sites reporting mid to upper 90s. The only
exception is in locations that saw some thunderstorms earlier this
afternoon. The good news is that despite the warm temperatures,
dewpoints have mixed out into the upper 60s which has prevented
heat advisory criteria to be exceeded. That being said, heat index
values 100-104 are occurring so be careful if doing any activities
outside this afternoon. A few thunderstorms have developed over
the last hour or two. With numerous outflow boundaries situated
across the forecast area, expect more storms to develop through
the rest of the afternoon and early evening before subsiding after
sunset. While no severe storms are forecast, a strong storm or
two is possible and would be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. By tonight, a tranquil evening is in store
with overnight lows remaining mild in the lower 70s. Some fog may
develop, especially in areas that saw rainfall this afternoon or
in our typical fog prone areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Not much change in the hot weather pattern as we head into the new
work week. High pressure remains dominant overhead and combined with
synoptic level subsidence dry conditions should prevail.
Unfortunately this will limit the amount of cloud cover, hence
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s both
Monday and Tuesday with heat index values reaching into the triple
digits. Therefore a Heat Advisory has been issued for areas along
and west of I-65 starting 10am Monday and continuing through 8pm
Tuesday. Overnight temps will not provide much relief from the
heat as they only dip into the low to mid 70s. Due to the heat
make sure you stay hydrated and avoid doing strenuous outdoor
activities during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Global models suggest that a broad/weak mid-level trough axis
will drift slowly southeastward from the Mid-MS Valley into the
central Gulf Coast states over the course of the long term period,
as the parent low lifts out to the northeast. This feature will
be accompanied by a subtle surface trough that should provide a
notable increase in coverage of showers/thunderstorms and a
decrease in temperatures through Saturday. At the onset of this
regime, there will likely be a favorable overlap of instability
and storm coverage on Wednesday afternoon/evening, as there are
still indications that a small MCS could evolve early in the day
in the Lower OH Valley vicinity that would spread southeastward
into our region by late afternoon/early evening. Should this
occur, a more widespread wind damage event may unfold, as this
system will enter a hot/unstable environment across the TN Valley.
Beyond Wednesday, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
remain fairly high during the day and at night through the end of
the forecast period, with locally heavy rainfall once again
becoming a concern as PWAT values will surge back above 2". Due to
the increasing coverage of clouds and precipitation, highs will
fall back into the 80s Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with light NW
winds. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm near the terminals
this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-
     096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH