055
FXUS64 KHUN 301839
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
139 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2026

 - An unsettled weather pattern begins Friday night and continues
   through Sunday with medium to high chances (50%-80%) for
   showers and thunderstorms each day into mid next week.

 - There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorm
   development Saturday into Saturday night.

 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
   forecast into early next week (30-60%). Temperatures should
   slowly warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s then.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Temperatures have climbed into the 84 to 86 degree range
primarily at 130 PM. Southern middle Tennessee and far NE Alabama
have seen their dewpoints drop due to mixing of drier air aloft
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Elsewhere, not as much mixing has
occurred with dewpoints still in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Still,
much nicer than a few days ago regardless. A scattered cumulus
field has developed over portions of NW Alabama over the past few
hours. This will likely continue through sunset before dissipating
with the loss of daytime heating. Currently, still on track to
hit primarily the upper 80s to around 90 degrees today.

A primary convergence axis that is creating some shower and
thunderstorm activity to our west and southwest stretches from
the Florida panhandle NW to near Meridian, MS into southern
Arkansas. As this boundary slowly pushes towards the NE, expect
some partly cloudy conditions to redevelop overnight over the
area. However, this cloud cover shouldn`t impact temperatures
much. Lows should still drop with light and variable winds into
the lower to mid 60s in many areas. The exception to this will be
NW Alabama, where dewpoints will likely stay in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. Not expecting any fog formation tonight, but if
some patchy fog were to form, NW Alabama would see any.

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This boundary keeps moving northeast into the day on Friday. At
the same time a fairly strong upper low pivots southeast through
the western Great Lakes region. Some models hint that the boundary
will push into NW Alabama during the early evening hours on
Friday. Shear does not look very good (mainly less than 20-25
knots). However, instability is ample for general thunderstorm
development. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours would be the
main threats. Later in the evening, stronger forcing ahead the
approaching upper level trough axis correlated with the upper low
(then over the northern Indiana/Illinois areas) approaches the
convergence boundary already moving east through northern Alabama.
This increase in forcing should increase shower and thunderstorm
coverage over northern Alabama towards daybreak.

The most persistent period of showers and thunderstorms looks to
be Saturday morning, as the upper level trough axis associated
with the upper low over the northern Indiana/Illinois areas swing
east around it towards the Tennessee Valley. There seems to be
more of a consensus that the showers and thunderstorms push more
to the southeast of northern Alabama during the early afternoon
hours. PWATS climb back above 2.0 inches, so heavy rainfall may be
an issue Saturday morning given stronger forcing shown at 700 mb.
However, shear does not look very impressive in the morning.

Then models are showing another round of showers and thunderstorms
developing ahead of the longwave trough axis later in the
afternoon. Though the best shear (around 35 knots or higher)
remains east of the upper low (corresponding to an increasing low
level jet), models do show 25-40 knots possibly pushing southeast
into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee during the
late afternoon/early evening hours. 1000 to 2000 J/KG of CAPE is
in place in several models during this period. Thus, our main
round strong to severe storms may occur with this second round of
activity. Better helicity should remain more in northern Tennessee
northward closer to the upper low. So, right now expecting a
tornado threat to remain north of the area. However, given
instability and shear, some severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds are possible. Flash flooding will also have to be
watched closely on Friday afternoon if the second round of
rain/storms materializes. Very heavy rainfall rates with PWAT
between 2.0 and 2.2 inches will be possible. If we get sunshine in
the afternoon, highs could rebound into the 85 to 90 degrees
range in NW AL. Further east, lower to mid 80s may be more
prevalent. This strong to severe thunderstorm activity could last
past midnight before pushing southeast of the area with only
lingering light rain is still in place afterwards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2026

Ensembles continue to show the main upper level trough axis
lingering from the Ohio Valley southward into northern Alabama
through Sunday. This should keep medium shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast through then. This should keep higher rain
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast and highs more pleasant
in the lower to mid 80s.

Ensembles begin to diverge more Sunday night into early next week.
Some guidance drops the upper low all the way south into northern
Alabama (if this occurs, shear could be significant and a severe
threat may re-materialize). Others keep the upper low over the
Ohio Valley, but shift the longwave trough axis east into Georgia.
So the forecast into early next week is very uncertain. NBM seems
to be taking the middle road, keeping low to medium chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday of
next week.

At the tail end of the long term, an upper level ridge and
subsequent high pressure begin to work eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley which should begin to dry out the area along
with increasing temperatures yet again. Highs throughout the long
term period are forecast to warm into the 80s with overnight lows
in the upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Some
scattered mid/high CIGS around 10,000 feet should develop around
the terminals tonight. Dry air should keep fog formation from
occurring towards daybreak on Friday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW