634
FXUS64 KHUN 212320
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
520 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure to the west continues to track eastward
tonight. Wind gusts up to 41 mph in Muscle Shoals earlier today
will decrease in the evening with most areas staying near 10 mph.
The big question for the forecast tonight is will temperatures
drop to or below freezing. This latest forecast has a few rural
areas touching 32, but confidence in several hours at or below
freezing is not there at this time. 10 mph will make it difficult
for deposition of frost and should keep the boundary layer well
mixed, which will also prevent any decoupling of winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

An upper level cutoff low over the Great Lakes region will
translate eastward this weekend and push off into the Atlantic on
Friday. Our flow aloft will moderate from sharp northwest flow on
the back end of that trough to more zonal flow by the end of the
weekend. At the same time, surface high pressure from the Southern
Plains will reach the Southeast on Saturday into Sunday. The
impacts to sensible weather will be cold air advection on Friday
keeping some areas in the upper 40s for high temperatures with
most areas near the TN river in the low 50s. Friday night, clear
skies and light winds will bring most temperatures down into the
upper 20s to low 30s and there is higher confidence in sub-
freezing temperatures for several hours. There is a high chance a
freeze warning will be required Saturday morning. Afterwards, the
transition to zonal flow aloft and the surface high moderating and
settling over the region will keep temperatures this weekend
closer to daily averages. Highs rise from the upper 50s on
Saturday to the low to mid 60s on Sunday with lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A more active pattern will begin to evolve during the early to
middle part of next week. A fast-moving mid to upper trough will
shift across the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the
Mid South and Tennessee Valley Monday evening/night -- bringing
medium to high chances (60-80%) of rain showers and a few
thunderstorms. Something to keep an eye on Tuesday Night into
Wednesday will be another area of low pressure developing across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which may eventually bring additional
rain chances to the region during the peak travel period for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Still a bit of spread with the timing and
evolution of this potential system, but we may be positioned for
some beneficial rainfall during this window.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure layered across the Plains states coupled with the
passage of a reinforcing cold front will help maintain VFR conds
thru the TAF period. NW winds near 10kt with higher gusts will
turn NNW around 12kt with higher gusts Fri morning as well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...09