472
FXUS64 KHUN 071649
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1149 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 931 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index
   values in the mid 90s to 100 continue through the work week.

 - Very low (10-20%) chances of showers and thunderstorms are
   forecast today in the higher terrain of far northeast Alabama
   and the adjacent Cumberland Plateau of southern Middle
   Tennessee.

 - Medium chances (30-60%) for showers and storms return Thursday
   through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 931 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Tranquil weather today across the Tennessee Valley, with high
pressure in control of our sensible weather once again. In wake of
the backdoor front that moved through the area yesterday, a
slightly cooler and drier air mass has worked its way into the
region. All this to say that heat impacts will be a bit more muted
today, with NWS Heat Risk highlighting moderate impacts (Level
2/4) in most locations. Still, ample sunshine will allow
temperatures to reach the upper 80s to low/mid 90s once again in
the afternoon -- with notably lower heat index values in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees. That said, those participating in
outside activities today should stay hydrated and alert to dangers
posed by very warm and hot conditions.

Otherwise, we`ll have to watch for a few diurnally driven showers
and storms developing along the Cumberland Plateau later this
afternoon. Coverage should be very sparse (10-20%), with a vast
majority of locations remaining dry. After convection wanes this
evening, more tranquil weather will occur overnight with lows in
the lower 70s and a slightly more drier air mass moving in by
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 931 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

High pressure will continue to promote mostly sunny, warm, and dry
(rain-free) conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
remains just a touch above seasonable normal, but still peak in
the upper 80s to low to mid 90s (with peak heat index values
around 100 degrees). Model soundings show a signal of strong
subsidence, meaning cloud cover will be limited and thunderstorm
chances very low (5-10%) each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 833 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The main feature of discussion during the long term period will be a
closed low system shifting eastward just north of the Great Lakes
region, bringing a cold front southeastward into the Tennessee Valley
by Thursday night. Ahead of and along the frontal boundary,
increased chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
Thursday afternoon into Friday. While there will likely be a lull in
storm activity sometime Friday, this will be short-lived as an upper
level shortwave shifts eastward into the area ahead of an upper level
ridge that is forecast to set up over the southern Plains. Low to
medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
continue through the weekend. Outside of the mentioned rain chances,
heat will continue to be a concern. Highs are forecast to remain in
the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat indices near 100 degrees. While
this is below local Heat Advisory criteria, we encourage everyone to
remain hydrated and practice heat safety while outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL
and KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC