753
FXUS64 KHUN 222350
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
550 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mid level cloud cover associated with a passing upper trough axis
continues to gradually move eastward over the mid TN Valley going
into the afternoon hrs this Sat. This cloud cover should begin to
exit the area later this afternoon, as temps climb into the 40s.
Mostly clear skies should then prevail tonight as high pressure
continues to gradually settle into the region from the west. Lows
into early Sun may at least be a few degrees higher compared to
the last few mornings, as temps fall more into the lower/mid 20s.
With sfc winds becoming light, patchy freezing fog is possible
late tonight in more of the fog prone sheltered/valley areas,
although the prob is not very high attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure will begin to move east of the area heading into the
second half of the weekend period, as a sfc wave develops in the
NW Gulf. As this sfc moves east Sun afternoon/evening, cloud cover
may again increase from the south. But any associated rainfall
looks to remain south of the area. The subtle warming trend will
continue Sun/Sun night, as highs trend closer to 50F and lows fall
into the upper 20s/near 30F. Mostly clear/sunny skies will then
prevail into the new week, as highs on Mon climb more in the upper
50s/near 60F, while lows Mon night trend in the mid 30s/near 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Northwest to zonal flow aloft will give way to a couple incoming
shortwaves over the Tennessee Valley Thursday through Friday morning.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will largely dominate over the
region through midweek until a trailing cold front from a low
pressure system traversing the Great Lakes sweeps through our area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure then looks to
build into the Deep South for late week.

The above pattern will lead to no rain chances until Wednesday
evening/night, when low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers returns
to the local area. Forecast rainfall totals have decreased
significantly from last night, dropping to between a hundredth to
five hundredths for our area. Therefore, flooding does not look to be
a concern with these showers. Additionally, model guidance indicates
abundant bulk shear, but nonexistent surface instability and minimal
elevated instability during the early evening hours. While it really
doesn`t take much instability for thunderstorms during the cold
season, overall confidence in thunder occurrence is very low at this
time. As we get closer, perhaps chances of a couple elevated
thunderstorms may become plausible. Regardless, severe weather is not
anticipated. Showers may then linger Thursday morning as the system
quickly departs to the east, but dry conditions will return by
Thursday evening and persist through Friday.

The warming trend is expected to continue through Wednesday, with
forecast highs topping out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees!
However, with the aforementioned cold FROPA, temperatures will then
cool back into the 50s by Friday. Lows will follow a similar trend,
with values in the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night. Cooler lows, in
the mid to upper 30s, are then anticipated Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Current satellite data indicates that the western edge of a bkn-
ovc As layer will continue to progress eastward this evening,
leaving SKC conds at the terminals thru late Sun morning. Although
winds will be calm (as our region remains embedded within a large
sfc ridge), the risk for FZFG btwn 4-14Z should be confined to
larger river valleys and we will not include vsby reductions in
the TAFs attm. Bkn-ovc mid and high-lvl clouds will begin to
spread back across the region by 16Z in advance of a sfc low
tracking northeastward across the northwestern Gulf. Lgt rain on
the northern edge of a broad stratiform precip shield may begin to
impact the southwestern portion of the forecast area late Sun
aftn, but at this point we have not included any precip in the
TAFs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD