298
FXUS64 KHUN 110800
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
300 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

 - Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the 95
   to 103 degree range today through Friday.

 - Additional chances of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain
   Friday afternoon and evening, and again over the weekend.

 - Monitoring the risk for additional heavy rain and flooding
   early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Throughout the near term period, a flat subtropical ridge in the
mid-levels will extend from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico
eastward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southeastern
Atlantic Coast. Our forecast area will remain on the northern edge
of the ridge, in an environment of weak subsidence and light
(10-20 knot) NW flow aloft. In the low-levels, south-southwesterly
flow between a high (centered northeast of Bermuda) and a
developing low (that will track northeastward from southwestern KS
into the western Great Lakes) will continue to sustain a very
warm/moist boundary layer airmass characterized by dewpoints in
the u60s-m70s.

After a muggy start to the day (featuring lows in the lower 70s
and patchy lake/valley fog), abundant sunshine this morning will
lead to a rapid increase in temperatures, with highs ranging from
the m-u 80s in elevated terrain to the l-m 90s in the valley. Heat
index values will once again reach 95-100F for most lower
elevation communities, but may also hit the 100-103F range in a
few locations. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will remain very low (5-10%) region-wide, with greatest coverage
today expected to extend from east-central AL northeastward across
northern GA and into western NC. However, if a remote storm
manages to materialize (primarily across northeast AL), the
thermodynamic environment (CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and DCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg) would support strong downburst winds up to 50-60
MPH, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with the most intense
cells.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

As a broad trough moves eastward across the Northern/Central
Plains on Thursday, warm air advection in the low/mid levels in
the southern tier of the CONUS will lead to an eastward expansion
of the upr ridge across our region. Similar to today, forecast
thermal profiles will feature substantive CAPEs, but a deep layer
of dry air aloft and a slightly weaker capping inversion. Shear is
also lacking with wind speeds largely less than 30 kts through the
entire convective column. A few showers couldn`t be ruled out,
with better chances probably along the higher terrain, but POPs
will be at/below 10 pct.

For Friday and Saturday conditions will begin to change. A cold
front in association with the northern trough is expected to
reach the TN Valley by late in the day on Friday. Increased
moisture pooling ahead of the impending front and the added
dynamic lift will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. The vertical thermal/moisture profiles also begin
to look a little more concerning on Friday. Substantial CAPEs
>3000 J/kg along with heavy water/moisture loading (PWs ~2 inches)
and large theta-e max/min differences in the low to mid levels
suggest a good potential for strong/damaging downbursts in the
afternoon. The primary limiting factor will be sufficient sfc
heating, which will be dependent on the presence of preceding
cloud cover in assoc/w the front.

The ultimate movement of the sfc front is uncertain, but there is
reasonable potential it may stall in the immediate area.
Nevertheless, a developing/expanding ridge centered in the Gulf
will tend to maintain a presence of low-lvl convergence across our
region on Saturday. This will take place as another, in what will
be a series of vort maxima rotate eastward into the region along
the broader trough/ridge interface. Western portions of the area
will tend to be favored for showers/thunderstorms on Saturday, but
this could change with further forecast refinement. After all,
this involves timing details on day 3 while there is still a range
of differences in the timing scenarios. Nevertheless, at this
time, forecast thermal/moisture profiles appear a little less
robust on Saturday, but still capable of producing strong updrafts
and the potential for downbursts.

Lastly, it should be stated that heat indices could reach upwards
of ~97-102 F during the Fri/Sat period, but will be largely
dependent on the amount of cloud cover and shower activity that
develops, and its timing. Other data from WBGT and Heat Risk
suggest that we could be near criteria for enhanced heat
messaging, but that`s not real clear at the moment given the
prospects for increased clouds/showers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The main concern in the long term period will be the continued and
increasing threat for flash flooding as multiple consecutive days of
heavy rainfall are forecast. Ridging over the Gulf and zonal flow
aloft will become less of an influence on weather locally by early
next week as upper troughing begins to dig across the northern Plains
and portions of the Midwest. As this happens, a tropical airmass will
reside over the Southeastern US as convergent flow increases across
the area. Medium to high PoPs will be in place each day through at
least Tuesday, peaking during diurnal heating times in the afternoon.
As has been the case over the past 24 hours, models continue to drive
lower confidence in when the flooding threat will come to an end due
to differences regarding when a cold front will push through the area
with high pressure to follow. These details should come into better
focus over the coming days, but the WPC continues to highlight the
threat for excessive rainfall through Sunday with future outlooks
likely highlighting the risk through Tuesday. PWATs will range from
2-2.3" with the highest potential on Monday as it stands right now.
Steering flow looks a little stronger than this past week, but
stronger forcing may result in both stronger and more widespread
storms leading to convectively enhanced rainfall rates. Some of these
storms could be on the stronger side if better shear is realized, but
that seems to be the secondary concern at this time.

With the extra humidity in the air, heat indices will stay in the mid
to upper 90s each afternoon through Monday with some relief coming
after the front moves through the area Tuesday or Wednesday. Those
with interests outdoors will want to keep a close eye on the forecast
as we head through the weekend and be prepared for the duel threat of
flooding and heat!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast
period. Clear skies during the early morning hours will
transition to partly cloudy by 16Z as strong warming of the
locally moist boundary layer results in the formation of sct-bkn
Cu in the 3500-6000 ft layer. Skies will become clear once again
this evening as the Cu field begins to dissipate around or shortly
before sunset. A lgt SSE flow will prevail overnight (reducing
the risk for vsby reductions in lgt BR/FG). Winds will veer to SW
and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD