711
FXUS64 KHUN 211822
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1222 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

High pressure centered over Southern MO/Northern AR has resulted
in a cool, but sunny day across the Tennessee Valley. Mostly clear
skies are forecast once again tonight coupled with light
northerly winds will quickly drop temperatures tonight into the
upper teens to lower 20s. While not as cold as the previous few
nights, it will still be necessary to bundle up in layers if
heading out the door late this evening or early tomorrow morning.
The good news is that the very dry airmass will limit any fog
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

As we head into the weekend, the center of high pressure will
slowly push eastward under zonal flow aloft. In response, a more
westerly flow pattern takes shape which will gradually warm
temperatures back up towards climatological norms. Despite sunny
skies, a weak shortwave will traverse the Tennessee Valley on
Saturday, which will limit the warming potential. However, it
will be warmer than the past few days with afternoon highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s and overnight lows in the mid 20s. A mid
level ridge begins to nose its way in from the west on Sunday.
This results in some additional warming with highs in the low to
mid 50s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A deep upper level low over northern Canada will move southward
as we go into the new week. While a nearly zonal flow should
continue across much of the CONUS, a series of upper disturbances
in the main westerlies, as they move south of this low, will help
induce a ridging west and troughing east upper pattern in the
latter half of the week. The passing of a disturbance Wed/Thu will
also help return rain chances to the Tennessee Valley Wed/Thu
(more on that below).

For the first half of the new workweek, dry weather is expected
across the region. A surface high that is now bringing frigid
conditions to the area, by Monday should be moving off of the east
coast. This will return a southerly flow across the area. That
and more sun than clouds will help high temperatures rise into the
lower 60s. Jan 16th was the last day with high temperatures of at
least 60. Mon night should feature not as cool conditions with
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A moderation in temperatures
will continue on Tue/Wed with highs in the mid 60s both days. Lows
will range in the 40s.

An upper level system moving in from the west should result in
the formation of a surface low over the western Great Lakes on
Wed. This next system will bring a cold front across the area Wed
night. Thus a chances of showers returns to the area. Instability
should not be sufficient to support thunder. The cold front should
be east of the area by Thu morning. Post frontal showers should
gradually end from west to east during that day. Only 1/10 of an
inch of rainfall is expected. With more clouds and rain chances,
highs on Thu should be a bit cooler, in the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A dry WNW flow aloft will gradually back to WSW overnight as a
shortwave trough tracks east-southeastward from the central High
Plains. Although this will promote a minor increase in the
coverage of mid/high-lvl clouds, conditions will remain VFR at the
terminals. As a surface ridge builds southeastward into the
region from southern MO, NE flow of 5-10 kts this aftn will become
lgt/vrbl overnight, prior to the onset of lgt SSW return flow by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...70