583
FXUS64 KHUN 140423
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1123 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Some light to moderate showers as well as a few storms persist to
our west over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee as of
this writing. Hi-Res model guidance suggests that these will
continue to dwindle over the next couple of hours with the loss of
daytime heating. Little to no rain is then forecast for the
overnight period along with warm low temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. While patchy fog is possible later tonight due to
calm winds and elevated moisture, cloudy skies will likely hinder
this becoming widespread and/or dense. We`ll keep an eye on this,
but confidence in dense fog is low. If you do encounter fog, make
sure to slow down and use low-beam headlights!

An upper trough swinging over the Southeast as well as a surface
front stalling over Tennessee will keep medium to high chances of
showers and storms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. With
highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, ample instability
is expected. Although, guidance continues to show bulk shear
values around 20 knots or less. Thus, severe weather is not
anticipated, but some gusty winds as well as frequent lightning
are possible with any stronger storm. In addition, model PWATs
range between 2.0-2.10 inches, which is above the 90th percentile
when looking at BMX Sounding Climatology. Therefore, showers and
storms will be efficient rainfall producers and very well could
lead to another day of flooding concerns. Please be cautious and
turn around, don`t drown if you encounter flooded roads!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday Night through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Bottom line up front: hot and humid conditions are on the way for
this weekend and into early next week!

As an upper trough pushes to the northeast by late week, an upper
ridge will build in quickly behind it over the Tennessee Valley.
Expect decreasing shower and storm chances through Saturday.
Although, we`ll need to keep an eye on the downburst potential.
Bulk shear values shown by model guidance are insufficient for
organized severe storms, but instability values range between
1500-2500 J/kg. Thus, any stronger storms and/or downbursts that
do form will have the capability of producing some gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to return by the weekend as
high temperatures warm into the lower to mid 90s by Saturday.
This, along with dew points in the 70s, will result in heat index
values generally between 97-102 degrees (especially over north-
central and northwest Alabama). Make sure to practice heat safety
if you work outside or have outdoor plans! Stay hydrated, wear
light-colored and loose-fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks
in the shade!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will persist over
the Tennessee Valley through much of the long term period. Overall
subsidence will keep chances of showers and storms low Sunday
through Tuesday. The main concern for this time frame will
therefore be the heat as forecast highs climb back into the lower
to mid 90s with dew points in the 70s. This will lead to heat
indices in the 98-104 degree range, with the highest values
generally along and west of I-65 (especially for urban areas).
While these values remain below Heat Advisory criteria at this
time, we will continue to monitor trends in case this changes and
guidance trends warmer. Regardless, we urge everyone to remember
heat safety! Please drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in
the shade, and never leave people or pets in vehicles!

By midweek, an upper low over the Gulf coast will shift north and
weaken the aforementioned ridge. Chances of showers and storms
will then increase for the local area and slightly cooler
temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s) will follow as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Very low clouds are forecast to develop over the next few hours,
with ceilings below 005agl (LIFR). FG is more uncertain, but may
need to amend for this as trends develop. Improvement back to VFR
is expected by 16Z. However, scattered SHRA and TSRA are forecast
to develop which could lower visibility due to +RA in the heavier
TS. By 00Z, the SHRA and TSRA activity should dissipate with VFr
conditions during the evening hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17