495
FXUS64 KHUN 140526
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - NWS HeatRisk values will largely be in the Moderate category
   during the forecast period, although Major category is expected
   mainly for portions of NW Alabama and urban areas Monday
   through Wednesday.

 - Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM through 8 PM on Tuesday for
   portions of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This evening we are monitoring what should soon be a decaying
cluster of thunderstorms across NW TN that are slowly tracking
southeast. These storms have been poorly modeled by hi-res
guidances, but with the loss of diurnal heating and a weakly
sheared environment we do expect these storms to decay before or
shortly after reaching the TN/AL state line. There will be another
low to medium chance for patchy dense fog again tonight, and
conditions will need to be monitored in case a Dense Fog Advisory
is needed. Overnight lows will continue to be on the warmer side
of seasonal norms, falling to the lower 70s to upper 60s in the
higher terrain.

Dry conditions will persist through Monday as upper ridging and
subsidence build into the region and temperatures continue to
rise. Although moisture/humidity is slightly more limited with
this heat wave, afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will bring heat indices to the 99-106
degree range. This will pose a danger for heat related illness
especially for those that are especially sensitive to the heat or
without proper cooling and hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the short term period
as the aforementioned ridge and high pressure aloft continues to
build over the eastern CONUS. H85 rises along with a drier
southeasterly fetch will keep sfc temps on the rise while also
suppressing moisture advection from the Gulf. A Heat Advisory has
been issued from 11 AM through 8 PM on Tuesday across portions of
north central and northwest AL as well as portions of southern
middle TN. Afternoon highs could approach 100 degrees across
northwest AL with heat indices reaching 106 degrees. Similar
conditions are forecast on Wednesday and an extension of the Heat
Advisory may be needed if forecast trends increase temperatures
further. With overnight lows in the 70s, compounding heat effects
will lead to moderate to major HeatRisk categories, highlighting
a danger to those working or spending time outdoors without
adequate cooling and hydration. Please dress in lightweight,
light colored clothing and drink plenty of fluids when
participating in outdoor activities. Also remember to never leave
people or pets unattended in vehicles!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The TN Valley won`t find a break from the heat in the Long Term. The
lingering ridge across the Southeast will start to retrograde as a
cut off low pushes into FL starting on Thursday. With a sfc high
anchored across the east coast, highs will remain in the 90s through
the week. However, the low will pull additional moisture into the
region, pushing Heat Index values around 100 degrees, but at this
time below any advisory criteria. The low will slide westward
across the northern Gulf through the weekend, and this will allow for
a front in the Ozarks and OH Valley to dip southward towards the TN
Valley. Models still disagree on if the front will make it in or
not this weekend and the outcome will have an effect on our
temps, cloud cover, and our precip chances. If it moves through,
we could have a quick break in the heat but increased rain
chances, but if it remains to our north, hot and humid conditions
will persist. Will stick with guidance that has the 90s lingering,
heat index values still hovering around 100 degrees and low
precip chances (15-25% Sat, 20-30% Sunday). However, trends will
be monitored for future needed adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. The one exception may be early this
morning, when localized MVFR fog may develop around daybreak. Have
handled this with a TEMPO between 09-13z for now.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>007.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24