699
FXUS64 KHUN 230601
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 913 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A west-northwest flow aloft of 35-45 knots will persist across
the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a compact, positive-tilt
shortwave trough (currently located across eastern portions of
NC/SC). At the surface, our forecast area will remain under the
influence of a large ridge of high pressure, which will provide
calm winds and conditions optimal for radiational cooling given
clear skies and dewpoints in the upper teens-lower 20s. Thus, we
have indicated lows in the 20-25F range for most of the region,
with development of patchy freezing fog possible during the early
morning hours in sheltered valleys and near large bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure will begin to move east of the area heading into the
second half of the weekend period, as a sfc wave develops in the
NW Gulf. As this sfc moves east Sun afternoon/evening, cloud cover
may again increase from the south. But any associated rainfall
looks to remain south of the area. The subtle warming trend will
continue Sun/Sun night, as highs trend closer to 50F and lows fall
into the upper 20s/near 30F. Mostly clear/sunny skies will then
prevail into the new week, as highs on Mon climb more in the upper
50s/near 60F, while lows Mon night trend in the mid 30s/near 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Northwest to zonal flow aloft will give way to a couple incoming
shortwaves over the Tennessee Valley Thursday through Friday morning.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will largely dominate over the
region through midweek until a trailing cold front from a low
pressure system traversing the Great Lakes sweeps through our area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure then looks to
build into the Deep South for late week.

The above pattern will lead to no rain chances until Wednesday
evening/night, when low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers returns
to the local area. Forecast rainfall totals have decreased
significantly from last night, dropping to between a hundredth to
five hundredths for our area. Therefore, flooding does not look to be
a concern with these showers. Additionally, model guidance indicates
abundant bulk shear, but nonexistent surface instability and minimal
elevated instability during the early evening hours. While it really
doesn`t take much instability for thunderstorms during the cold
season, overall confidence in thunder occurrence is very low at this
time. As we get closer, perhaps chances of a couple elevated
thunderstorms may become plausible. Regardless, severe weather is not
anticipated. Showers may then linger Thursday morning as the system
quickly departs to the east, but dry conditions will return by
Thursday evening and persist through Friday.

The warming trend is expected to continue through Wednesday, with
forecast highs topping out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees!
However, with the aforementioned cold FROPA, temperatures will then
cool back into the 50s by Friday. Lows will follow a similar trend,
with values in the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night. Cooler lows, in
the mid to upper 30s, are then anticipated Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Calm winds will continue through the overnight before picking up
to less than 5 mph on Sunday. With dewpoint depressions still
between 5 and 10 degrees, leaving freezing fog and VSBY
reductions out of terminals for now. This may need to be added
towards daybreak on Sunday if it materializes. Otherwise,
scattered high clouds may become broken at KHSV late this
afternoon into the evening hours.



&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW