113
FXUS64 KHUN 230248
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
848 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 848 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure building in from the southeast Great Plains
will help continue dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley.
Area temperatures across this region ranged from the mid 30s at Ft
Payne to the mid 40s at Muscle Shoals and Huntsville, with light
winds. Although the high was nearing the area, overall thermal
advection appeared more neutral as opposed to warm/cold. Thus
overnight temperatures should cool into the low/mid 30s. Therefore
will maintain the Frost Advisory. That said, those colder and
more sheltered locations could chill to freezing for a short time.

An item complicating the forecast is an area of stratus with cloud
bases in the ~3000 ft AGL range over middle and eastern Tennessee.
Model output was suggesting that this moisture, and associated
clouds should move over the area in the overnight. Areas that
have higher odds of being impacted would be more over the central
and eastern areas. The clouds moving in would provide a moderation
effect on cold temperatures, which would be more in-line with
frosting as opposed to freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

5h will become deamplified quickly Saturday into Sunday across much
of the southern and central CONUS. The surface high will shift into
the FL peninsula by Sunday. This will ensure a dry weekend with a
warming trend. Morning lows Sunday will be in the middle 30s for most
with perhaps a couple of spots in southern middle TN dipping to 32. High
temperatures will reach the 50s Saturday and lower to middle 60s for
valley areas (upper 50s Plateau areas) on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A more active period will set up beginning Monday as upper ridging
shifts east of the area and a trough nears from the central Plains.
Will see moisture increase on Monday ahead of a cold front tied to
the aforementioned trough and will result in the warmest day of the
forecast period with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday
afternoon. Will introduce low chances (20-30%) for rain Monday
afternoon with high chances (70-80%) during the evening and
overnight hours. Moisture looks to be a bit limited over the area
with this system, so overall rainfall amounts look to be below 1/4"
at this time. With limited instability, thunder chances remain very
low at this time.

The forecast for Tuesday looks cooler but dry at this time, with
highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows will drop into the
upper 30s/lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is when our
next system shifts east through the Plains and model guidance
diverges from there. While the GFS favors more of a heavy rain event,
the ECMWF takes the sfc low slightly farther north and puts us more
in the warm sector. The exact track of the sfc low will make a big
difference between just rain and potentially strong storms, but we
continue to have very low confidence on how this system will set up
over our area. What we do have confidence in is that the area will
see at least some rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday and cooler
temperatures will follow. Stay tuned for updates as the late-week
system gets closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR weather should continue into the late evening, as surface high
pressure over the southern Great Plains builds eastward. An area
of lower level moisture (and stratus) extending from the Upper
MS Valley to northern TN should move southward in the late night.
Present indications suggested some of these clouds could move
across the KHSV terminal before daybreak Sat, thus included a
TEMPO for MVFR CIGs. These clouds should remain east of the KMSL
airport. VFR weather otherwise returns a few hours after daybreak
on Sat, continuing into the afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB