870
FXUS64 KHUN 050803
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
303 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A hot day is forecast across the Tennessee Valley as southwesterly
flow advects in a warm and humid airmass. Today will be the
warmest day is a week or so with afternoon highs topping out in
the low to mid 90s. Despite the warm conditions, the atmosphere
should remain capped with no storms expected until later this
evening. By this afternoon, a cold front will gradually approach
the forecast area from the NW. This will provide the necessary
lift to generate convection. More details on the storms in the
short term portion of the discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Updated to include the upgrade to Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5)
from the SPC for NW AL and southern middle TN.

Conditions will change Friday night into Saturday as
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. The cold front
will finally slip down into the TN Valley. However, a shortwave
will slide into the Mid South and OH Valley as well, providing a
chance for storms to become strong to severe. SPC has placed us in
a Slight Risk for NW AL and southern middle TN and a Marginal Risk
for the res of the forecast area. Some storms will arrive between
sunset and midnight with high res models showing a short break
before the line moves through. With decent instability and bulk
shear along with an increase of moisture in place will allow for
storms to be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Parameters weaken towards sunrise and the line looks to exit
shortly after as the front sinks southeastward. A few general
showers/storms could linger after sunrise and into the early
afternoon hours. Daytime highs on Saturday will be around 10
degrees cooler, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

As the front continues to drift southward across the state, high
pressure from the Northern Plains and Midwest will build in as
the upper level trough starts to slide eastward. Breezy northerly
winds will filter in cooler and drier air to the TN Valley with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and decreasing cloud cover.
Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 923 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Zonal flow aloft to start the long term looks to turn into weak
ridging by Tuesday. Although an upper shortwave swings over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, mainly zonal flow will return to
the Tennessee Valley as the base of that trough traverses the
region. Northwest flow is then anticipated by Thursday as a stout
upper ridge builds over the central CONUS. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will build over the Midwest and the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys early next week. This feature is expected to gradually push
eastward through midweek due to systems developing over the western
CONUS and central Canada.

For sensible weather for our local area, the influence of surface
high pressure is expected to keep mainly dry conditions through the
majority of the long term period. Although, temperatures are forecast
to gradually increase through the week. Highs begin in the mid 70s
to lower 80s on Monday, then by Thursday reach the mid 80s to around
90 degrees. Lows follow a similar pattern, increasing from the lower
to mid 50s early in the week into the mid to upper 50s by later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR conditions with light and variable winds continue into
tomorrow. A line of showers and storms is expected to arrive near
the terminals in the late afternoon/early evening. This will
reduce by ceilings and visibilities. Still some uncertainty in
timing so left within a prob 30 group.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....JMS/GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...GH