529
FXUS64 KHUN 221618
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 808 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across areas mainly southeast
of Tims Ford Lake to Pickwick Lake. One of the stronger
thunderstorms has shown some bowing characteristics, but appears
to be elevated. PWs are above 1.25 inches, and repeat episodes of
rainfall may lead to locally excessive rain amounts. Will see this
trend continue through this morning with redevelopment possible
this afternoon during peak heating. The MPD highlights the area
for possible flash flooding and will monitor that through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The frontal boundary over the region will linger through Wednesday
into Thursday, possibly lifting northward slowly with time. A
series of very weak shortwaves in the westerly flow at 7-5h will
traverse the mid South and TN valleys, triggering additional
showers and thunderstorms at times. Maxima in activity will not
take place during the daytime heating periods, but could be
amplified a bit Wednesday night into early Thursday as a slightly
more rigorous shortwave arrives. Severe weather is unlikely, but
lightning and locally heavy rainfall which will produce a low risk
of flash flooding are expected. Various mean QPF guidance
indicates 0.25-0.75 inches in far northwest AL to 1-2 inches
further southeast across the rest of southern middle TN and north
central and northeast AL. With the clouds and precipitation,
temperatures will be held in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

We remain in an active pattern late this week into the weekend
with zonal flow aloft and the aforementioned boundary just north
of the area, resulting in medium (40-70%) chances for showers and
storms each afternoon/evening. A mid/upper ridge axis over the
Gulf will gradually begin to build into the region Sunday into
Monday, resulting in much lower rain chances (10-20%) due to
strong subsidence. Ample sunshine and southerly flow will allow
help to warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

As current area of SHRA and TSRA shift southeast, periodic IFR
ceilings will be possible. A general improvement to VFR ceilings
at or above 030agl is expected further northwest including KHSV
and KMSL. This will last into the early evening hours, although
additional SHRA and TSRA may necessitate amendments. Later
overnight by 07-09Z, there is a high chance of low ceilings (IFR
and LIFR) and BR/FG development with visibility of 3SM or less.
These conditions may last through 15Z before ceilings rise back
above 010agl (MVFR).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17