861
FXUS64 KHUN 262322
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
522 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon in
wake of the front, with northerly winds reinforcing this cool, dry
air mass. Winds will drop off after sunset and it`ll be a good
setup for radiational cooling underneath a clear sky. Lows will
drop into the mid to upper 30s in most locations. Some patchy fog
may develop immediately along bodies of water (due to the
temperature difference between the water and surrounding air).
Some patchy frost may also develop late tonight and early
Wednesday morning in sheltered valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

We quickly transition to a more active period of weather Wednesday
and Thursday as our winds veer to the south, advecting in a warm
and more moist air mass into the region. This can be seen in our
high temperatures which will climb into the low to mid 60s by the
afternoon and dewpoints which which will rise into the upper 50s
to lower 60s by Wednesday evening. A shortwave will dive ESE from
the central Plains into the Mid South/lower Ohio Valley during
this timeframe, dragging a cold front through the Tennessee Valley
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. As forcing
increases after Midnight, coverage of showers and at least a few
thunderstorms should increase as inhibition begins to erode away.

Ensembles continue to show a wide range of possibilities with
respect to the storm environment, where storms will initiate, and
what the coverage will be. The Grand Ensemble mean indicates
roughly 100-250 J/Kg of SBCAPE overnight, before it gets squeezed
to the south by mid-morning on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). The
shear profile will most certainly favor organized convection (if
it can develop), with favorable hodographs for a low-end tornado
threat (as evidenced by the 2% marginal area for tornadoes from
SPC). Hi-Res guidances isn`t as bullish on thunder prospects in
the latest 12z runs, but think evidence is certainly strong
enough to warrant concern for some organized strong to marginally
severe storms. The primarily concern would be localized
gusty/damaging winds and a tornado or two with the strongest
convection.

A few elevated storms may persist into the mid/late morning hours
on Thanksgiving Day behind the front, but most of the convection
and precipitation will be shifting south of the area by 15-18z. NW
wind will begin to advect in a cooler, drier air mass by the
afternoon hours and by Thursday night temperatures will likely
fall into the low to mid 30s. Much colder air will follow this
weekend into early next week. More on this in the section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Bottom line up front: While no precipitation is forecast, it will be
MUCH colder from Friday into early next week (way colder than we`ve
seen so far this season). In fact, this is just in time for
meteorological winter, which begins on Sunday. After the cold front
that will bring the showers and storms discussed in the near and
short term moves southeast, drier, colder air will be ushered into
the region on Friday. Highs are forecast to merely top out in the
40s! Northwest flow aloft as well as a reinforcing cold front moving
over the Tennessee Valley Friday night continue this cold snap, with
low temperatures expected to dip into the 20s Friday night. Surface
high pressure is then forecast to dive down over the South from the
northern Plains, bringing an even colder, arctic airmass and thus
frigid temperatures to the region for late weekend into early next
week. Highs both Sunday and Monday will struggle to warm past the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows are forecast to bottom out in the upper
teens to lower 20s Sunday night and be only a few degrees warmer
Monday night. Wind chills could drop into the teens for some
locations as well both nights, but especially Monday night. We`ll
continue to monitor trends, as Frost/Freeze Warnings appear likely by
late week. Overall, make sure to plan and prepare for this cold
weather by remembering the 4 P`s: people, pets, pipes, and plants!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

With high pressure out of the Plains states building into the
region in the wake of a frontal passage, VFR conds are generally
expected thru the TAF period. Light/var winds will also turn south
near 7-8kt Wed morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09