329
FXUS64 KHUN 230725
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
125 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

After a chilly and frosty morning, upper ridging will slowly
build into the region today along with surface high pressure. The
lower cloud deck that nudged into the local area overnight (mainly
over southern middle Tennessee and portions of north-central and
northeastern Alabama) is expected to gradually lift and erode away
through this morning. Clear skies will then follow for this
afternoon. Northwest flow will keep somewhat cool temperatures in
the forecast today, with highs topping out in the mid to upper
50s. Some locations in the higher elevations of northeast Alabama
could see cooler highs, in the lower 50s. Enjoy your Saturday, but
make sure to grab a jacket if heading outdoors!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Another cool night is on deck for tonight as high pressure
settles in, with calm winds and mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 30s for
many areas and this, coupled with low dew point depressions, will
result in frost formation. A Frost Advisory may become necessary
once again, but we`ll reassess with the next forecast update.

As surface high pressure begins to push to the east on Sunday and
a cold front advances towards the Tennessee Valley on Monday, a
warming trend with increasing moisture will be the theme through
Monday. Highs warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Monday
afternoon, with lows increasing into the 40s to around 50 degrees
Sunday night. Our next chance at rain will also come late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. Expect medium to high chances
(50-80%) of showers over the local area through Monday evening.
This system will be fairly fast-moving, as rain chances decrease
by early Tuesday morning as the system departs to the southeast.
Not anticipating a wash out by any means, as forecast total
rainfall looks to remain below a quarter of an inch area-wide.

As the cold front moves to the southeast, cooler temperatures
will be ushered into the region (especially by Tuesday). Lows
Monday night will thus be a touch cooler than Sunday night, with
temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

By Tuesday morning, we will be in the wake of a cold front as the
broad upper trough axis shifts east of the area and the upper
level flow becomes more zonal to slightly northwest. High pressure
will settle into the region Tuesday, keeping the forecast dry
with highs in the 50s and lows dropping into the low to mid 30s.
High pressure will remain dominant through the daylight hours on
Wednesday with highs reaching back near 60 degrees. Moisture will
begin to increase late Wednesday into Thursday as an upper trough
begins to swing across the eastern US, and sfc cyclogenesis
develops over the southern Plains. There is still considerable
disagreement regarding the northward extent of the sfc low and
where the Tennessee Valley will reside regarding the warm sector.
Have stuck with blended guidance for now, increasing rain and low
thunderstorm chances late Wednesday with medium (40-60%) rain
chances persisting through Friday morning. The main concern as it
stands now will be localized flooding, but will continue to
monitor trends in case a severe threat shifts north of the Gulf
Coastal region.

As the upper trough shifts east of the area early Friday, a cold
front will bring a much colder airmass to the region heading into
the weekend, and confidence is increasing that much if not all of
the area will experience sub-freezing lows Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next hour or two, but MVFR
CIGs may move over the HSV terminal by 7Z. This lower cloud deck
will mainly encompass areas along and east of I-65, with lower
confidence in this affecting northwest Alabama (and the MSL
terminal). However, anticipating VFR conditions to return later
tonight, with clear skies forecast by late morning/early afternoon
on Saturday. Winds will be light to calm overnight, increasing to
around 5 knots or less by tomorrow afternoon, then diminish to be
light once again by Saturday evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26