622
FXUS64 KHUN 040645
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1245 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Low to medium chances of fog tonight into early Tuesday across
   much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

 - Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend will continue
   through Thursday night.

 - Conditions appear conducive for a risk of strong to severe
   thunderstorms at some point from Friday-Saturday night, with
   timing still highly uncertain. A much colder airmass will
   follow in the wake of this system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

An upper level system that brought showers to the area yesterday,
was on a weakening trend as it moves further off of the Mid
Atlantic coast. Upper level ridging over the Southern Plains will
build a bit more to the south across the northern Gulf region,
while a near zonal mid/upper flow pattern becomes established over
much of the eastern Lower-48. This setup should remain in place
for the remainder of the workweek. At the surface, broad high
pressure was in place across this region. Clear skies prevailed
from SE of the Mid South to the Atlantic and Gulf coast. Area
temperatures at 9 PM have cooled into the 40s with light winds.

Given light winds, clear skies, and great opportunities for
radiative cooling in these longer autumn nights, a risk for
overnight fog development cannot be ruled out. With an exception
of new NAM MOS hinting at fog, the other guidance for the most
part was fog free. With conditions still favorable for fog, I
prefer the more foggy blends output. Foggy or not, expect another
chilly night across the Tennessee Valley, with lows falling into
the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few spots could experience patchy
frosting should temperatures dip to 35-37 degrees.

Any fog that forms should quickly dissipate after daybreak.
Tuesday should feature generally sunny skies, with highs rising
into the mid 60s to around 70. Light and variable winds in the
morning should become light from the SE-S in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the remainder of the week, low temperatures will become
milder. High pressure over the region should shift to the east
during Wed/Thu, resulting in a deeper southerly flow. This will
help moderate daily temperatures. Lows Tue night should cool into
the lower 40s, and low/mid 40s Wed night. Even with milder
conditions, we cannot totally rule out late night patch fog
development, confined mainly in/near wind sheltered locations and
near bodies of water. And under generally sunny to partly cloudy
skies, high temperatures on Wed/Thu should rise into the lower 70s
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Two main features of focus for the long term period will be a
system that brings potentially strong storms Friday and an influx
of cold air early next week. Significant disagreement remains in
clusters regarding the evolution and track of an upper level
disturbance shifting generally eastward throughout the U.S. into
the Tennessee Valley vicinity this weekend. LREF shows up to
400-500 J/kg of CAPE moving in along and west of I-65 Friday
afternoon/evening, which could allow some strong storms if
realized. However, confidence remains low due to the
aforementioned disagreement. Blended guidance was kept in the
forecast through the long term due to uncertainty, which brings
medium chances of showers and thunderstorms into the area by
Friday afternoon and continues rain chances through Friday
evening.

Ensembles are agreeing on an influx of cold air early next week,
in which we could drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for overnight
lows (potentially prompting freeze products). The Climate
Predication Center (CPC) has outlooked portions of NE AL in a
moderate risk (40-60%) for much below normal temperatures on
November 11th. Therefore, if you have any agricultural or outdoor
interests, it will be important to stay up to date on the latest
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Clear skies and light winds prevailed across the area. Given
longer fall nights, a risk for more fog in the overnight remains.
Have MVFR VSBY reductions beginning at 07Z at KMSL, and 08Z at
KHSV. VSBY reductions could become lower, however not enough
confidence to mention that at this time. Any fog that forms should
dissipate shortly after sunrise Tue morning, with VFR weather
returning. Light winds are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The Climate Prediction Center has included areas along and east
of I-65 in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures for
November 11th. Temperatures below 28-32 degrees F are possible
during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB