304
FXUS64 KHUN 060201
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
901 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Loss of daytime heating has decreased the threat of thunderstorms
for tonight. A muggy overnight is anticipated as temperatures only
slide into the 60s to lower 70s. Some low cloudiness may
development, but not expecting it to be widespread at this time
with a light southeast wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Not much change in previous thinking as an active weekend of weather
is ahead. Ample heating will drive CAPE values into the 2000-3000
j/kg range Friday afternoon, with 25-30kt of 6km bulk shear. This as
a remnant MCV from overnight convection in the Plains arrives. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, but areal
coverage is somewhat in question with somewhat stronger QG forcing
just to our north.

The severe risk and areal coverage will go up on Saturday into
Saturday night as multiple shortwaves/MCVs track east, and 5h winds
accelerate to 40-50kt. 8h winds will increase to 25-30kt, and bulk
shear values go up to 35-40kt. The risk of excessive rain may also
increase due to repetitive episodes of thunderstorms through
Saturday night into early Sunday.

The good news is, the models indicate the surface boundary sinking
south on Sunday. Temperatures will cool off with highs in the
lower 80s. Suggested blended PoPs remain on the high side, and
this may need some adjustment down if this trend holds. However,
if the boundary holds up and persistent rainfall develops,
excessive rainfall may be more of an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Rainy conditions will continue into the long term forecast as the
front lingers in the TN Valley through the start of the work week.
The front looks to slowly sag SE from Sunday night into Tuesday with
an eventual exit Tuesday afternoon as the parent low pushes into the
NE. The lingering presence of the trough does look to induce
additional days of rain and storm chances however a widespread severe
and flooding risk is looking less likely. Rather, it looks like we
will be able to obtain just enough CAPE and retain just enough shear
from the front to support some rain and storms both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon with low confidence in any reaching severe
limits. Further, models maintain event rainfall totals of 2-3
inches through Wednesday, which the summer foliage will easily
soak up. Thus, flooding concerns through next week will likely be
limited to rises on rivers, creeks, and streams along with the
potential for some localize flooding issues in low lying areas.

Beyond Tuesday, we will find ourselves between the front exiting
to our east and a developing cut off low to our west. These two
features will unfortunately provide just enough support for
additional days of afternoon rain and storm chances through the
end of the long term. Neither feature will be close enough to
support a significant severe risk, rather just additional days
where general summer time thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The evening looks to be quiet with any evening showers dwindling
over the next couple of hours by 06/01-02Z Friday. A quiet night
is on tap across the forecast area. Confidence of patchy fog/BR
was too limited to add in the 00Z TAF cycle but can`t be ruled out
in sheltered areas. Scattered cumulus field should develop around
06/15-17Z Friday, with initial showers development possible
during this timeframe. The greatest coverage of storms will be in
the aftn to evening hours, with the onset between 06/21-22Z &
persisting through the end of the TAF period. Added a temporary
flight category reduction for storms during this timeframe. Light
southerly sfc winds will prevail the next 24 hours, generally
under 10mph sustained & brief higher gusts. /DC/JAN/

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...DC