442
FXUS64 KHUN 220430
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1030 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 907 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Sfc winds out of the NW have diminished into the 5-10 MPH range,
although gusts remain near 10-20 MPH this Thu evening. An upper
low/trough axis also continues to rotate eastward thru the OH
Valley/Mid Atlantic states, with some cloud cover approaching
southern mid TN. Some of this cloud cover may also spread into
parts of NE AL overnight, with the remainder of the area predom
under mostly clear skies into early Fri. Given the continued
influx of cooler air into the central TN Valley, overnight lows
still look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 30s for most spots. A
few locations may drop to the freezing mark early Fri morning,
although the duration should only be for an hr or two. Some of the
wind sheltered areas may also see a little frost into the early
morning period, but overall sfc winds around 5-10 MPH should help
offset the prob for more widespread frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

An upper level cutoff low over the Great Lakes region will
translate eastward this weekend and push off into the Atlantic on
Friday. Our flow aloft will moderate from sharp northwest flow on
the back end of that trough to more zonal flow by the end of the
weekend. At the same time, surface high pressure from the Southern
Plains will reach the Southeast on Saturday into Sunday. The
impacts to sensible weather will be cold air advection on Friday
keeping some areas in the upper 40s for high temperatures with
most areas near the TN river in the low 50s. Friday night, clear
skies and light winds will bring most temperatures down into the
upper 20s to low 30s and there is higher confidence in sub-
freezing temperatures for several hours. There is a high chance a
freeze warning will be required Saturday morning. Afterwards, the
transition to zonal flow aloft and the surface high moderating and
settling over the region will keep temperatures this weekend
closer to daily averages. Highs rise from the upper 50s on
Saturday to the low to mid 60s on Sunday with lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A more active pattern will begin to evolve during the early to
middle part of next week. A fast-moving mid to upper trough will
shift across the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the
Mid South and Tennessee Valley Monday evening/night -- bringing
medium to high chances (60-80%) of rain showers and a few
thunderstorms. Something to keep an eye on Tuesday Night into
Wednesday will be another area of low pressure developing across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which may eventually bring additional
rain chances to the region during the peak travel period for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Still a bit of spread with the timing and
evolution of this potential system, but we may be positioned for
some beneficial rainfall during this window.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Sfc winds out of the NW have fallen below 10kt heading into the
overnight hrs although these winds should again increase closer to
10kt with higher gusts Fri morning. Otherwise, a strong dome of
high pressure layered across the Plains states should maintain VFR
conds thru the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...09