846
FXUS64 KHUN 292017
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
217 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Cold rain moves in later today/tonight and continues into
   Sunday morning (60-80% chance).

 - Wind chills drop into the upper-teens to low 20s Monday
   morning.

 - More cold rain, heavy at times, from Monday afternoon through
   Tuesday (90%-100% chance), low chances (~10-20%) for flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Rain with isolated areas of embedded mdt showers are moving
eastwards across northern Miss and SW Tenn. Dew point depressions
are still rather large in the immediate area, on the order of
about 30-35 degrees F in some locations. However, sufficient
moistening of the low-level environment is taking place with the
line of rain to our west to allow some lgt rain to reach the
sfc. Such is the case with recent obs from Memphis and locations
in NW Miss. So, it is anticipated that this initial line of rain
could produce lgt rain at the sfc after entering NW AL around 21Z.
POPs were updated to account for this, but kept in the slight
chance to chance range to account for the spotty areas of mdt
precip that may sufficiently wet the column. Otherwise, the bulk
of activity is still expected later tonight, but expected rainfall
amounts have not changed much (~0.25" or less overnight).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1000 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Temperatures early Sunday morning will largely be in the upr 30s
to mid 40s, as the rainfall comes to an end...making for a rather
raw, chilly start to the day. Clouds will tend to erode slowly
from east to west, but it`s not clear how far the clearing line
will move eastward by sunset. Western portions of the area are
more likely to observe some sun by afternoon before sunset, with
lesser chances as you move eastward. The air mass moving into the
area will be a mix of N Pac and modified continental air, so it
will not be overly cold. However, temperatures will struggle to
reach the upper 40s for most locations.

The main polar front will maintain a presence to the north of our
area early in the week, while a broader West-East upr trough is
carved out across the CONUS. A more significant trough will tap
into moist air masses from the Gulf and Pacific with greater
moisture advection ensuing across the region by later Monday.
Stronger isentropic lift ahead of this next trough will allow for
a heavier rainfall potential across the area beginning Monday
afternoon and lasting into Tuesday. Currently, forecast rainfall
amounts are largely around 1-1.25 inches during the period, but
reasonable case higher scenarios are upwards of ~1.5 inches. These
higher amounts could result in Minor Flooding on some
creeks/rivers with experimental guidance from HEFS and NASA SPoRT
indicating ~10-20% probabilities of flooding mainly on the Flint
and Paint Rock Rivers. A small chance for thunderstorms (<20%) was
included for some far southern portions of the area late Monday
night, with the prospects for minor instability aloft there. High
temperatures Tuesday may occur during the morning for some
locations, with temperatures nearly steady during the day, and
highs mainly in the 40s. Gradual clearing and ongoing cold air
advection will see temperatures falling into sub-freezing
territory on Wednesday morning, with lows likely in the mid-upr
20s at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The cold air mass remains over the Southeast through the
remainder of the work week. Surface high pressure will track over
the Southeast Wednesday. Southerly return flow on Thursday will
increase cloud cover throughout the day. There is disagreement
between global ensemble models in how quickly the next system
arrives. At this point, it looks like late next week into the
weekend will see a return of rain. We will need to monitor how
this overlaps with the arrival of colder air. Otherwise, high
temperatures will peak near 50 each day with lows in the upper 20s
to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

RA ahead of a frontal boundary will begin to impact TAF sites
mainly after 00Z, with best chances for more concentrated RA
between 06-12Z. Impacts to ceilings/vis will largely be down into
the MVFR range, with lower confidence in ceilings down into the
IFR range, which were ultimately not included in the TAF forecast
at this time. LLWS still looks possible at KMSL, but most likely
time of occurrence has shifted to ~04-08Z. An increase to VFR
conditions is expected after the TAF ending time, between
30/18-00Z tomorrow.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...KDW