691
FXUS64 KHUN 300624
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1224 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Cold, light rain continues into Sunday morning (50-80%
   chance).

 - Wind chills drop into the upper-teens to low 20s Monday
   morning.

 - More cold rain, heavy at times, from Monday afternoon through
   Tuesday (90%-100% chance), low chances (~10-20%) for flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Wide band of light to moderate rainfall will continue moving
slowly eastward across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee
ahead of an approaching cold front. Near surface layer still
remains quite dry and areas west of I-65 have recently saturated
and begun to see widespread light rainfall in area gauges
totaling less than 0.1 inches as of 9 PM. Temperatures are
expected to remain above freezing, albeit chilly, and frozen
precipitation is not anticipated. Any sleet/graupel should be
very localized and non-impactful. Areas east of I-65 are still
working to overcome those 20-30 degree dew point depressions at
the surface but should begin to see more widespread drops reaching
the ground in the next couple of hours. Light rain will continue
into the morning hours tomorrow with rainfall totals most likely
remaining less than 0.25 inches. Pressure gradient ahead of the
front remains tightened enough to continue southeasterly gusts of
20-25 mph in a few areas this evening. Low temps are expected in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The aforementioned cold front will pass through the local area on
Sunday morning, shifting winds to the northwest and pushing out
any lingering rainfall to our south and west. Daytime temps will
only be a hair cooler than we saw today but will be noticeably
colder as we go into Sunday night/Monday morning. Temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s combined with a little bit of wind at 5-10
mph will lead to apparent (feels-like) temperatures in the upper
teens to low 20s Monday morning. Those heading outside in the
early morning on Monday should dress appropriately for the cold
temps.

On Monday, our attention will turn to the next incoming weather
system as mid-level troughing deepens over the MidWest before
swinging across the TN Valley Monday night into Tuesday. At the
sfc, low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf and progress
northeastward across the FL panhandle into central GA and the
Carolinas. As a result, increasing rainfall chances will
overspread the area Monday afternoon from the south, peak Monday
night at 95%-100%, and exit to the east late Tuesday morning into
early Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will surge northward in
southerly flow with a set up more favorable for increased
precipitation rates and total rainfall amounts. Forecast 30 hour
totals look to be between 1.0-1.75 inches. Reasonable worst case
scenario would be localized spots seeing up to 2.5-3.0 inches of
rainfall, primarily in areas south of the TN River. We will keep
an eye on the forecast for any potential for frozen precipitation
but at this time the forecast remains all rain.This would likely
only occur if precip moved in early on Monday then currently
forecast. It will be cold again with temps in the 40s throughout
the rainfall event but by the time temps drop below freezing on
Tuesday night any precipitation should have already exited the
area. Chances for thunderstorms remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry and chilly with high and
low temps hovering around 10 degrees below normal for early
December. Morning temps in the mid 20s to low 30s can be expected
with afternoon highs around 50 degrees. The next weather system is
expected late in the week which will be the next shot at any
potential rainfall and/or wintry precipitation. Ensemble
scenarios vary in terms of timing and strength of this system so
the finer details of the forecast remain to be seen but it will
definitely be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Light rain has resulted in MVFR conditions in some locations
across the area and further reductions to cigs are forecast
through much of the TAF period. Rainfall will continue to push
east of the area later this morning but IFR to perhaps LIFR cigs
are forecast to move in during that time. Conditions should
slowly improve late this afternoon into this evening. Have
maintained southerly wind shear of 40kts at 2kft early this
morning. Amendments may be needed to account for category changes
as the rain continues to push through the area this morning.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...25