613
FXUS64 KHUN 312347
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
647 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with
mostly clear conditions prevailing across the Tennessee. A few
showers have developed along a weak convergence boundary in DeKalb
County, but otherwise the remainder of the area will remain
devoid of convection. This activity and cloud cover will gradually
diminish with the loss of heating and it will once again be a
good setup for radiational cooling. Overnight low temperatures
will gradually fall into the lower 60s in most locations by early
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A couple of shortwaves rippling southeast along a broad upper-
trough across the eastern CONUS will pivot into the Mid South on
Monday (Labor Day), bringing a return of low chances (20-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
An even stouter shortwave will pass into the Tennessee Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday, helping to force a frontal boundary into
the region. Some added shear from this feature, combined with
appreciable instability could allow for at least a few strong,
more organized thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. PoPs have added increased slightly to 30-60%
during this window and think everyone will have a decent shot of
seeing at least some precipitation during the Monday to Wednesday
timeframe. The added cloud cover and rain chances will help lower
high temperatures by a few degrees, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

By mid week, a low pressure system is forecast to push southward
into the Great Lakes region- bringing the shortwave southeastward
into the Ohio River and northern Tennessee Valleys. A subsequent
cold front is forecast to form and push southeastward by Thursday.
There continues to be slight disagreement on the eventual
placement of the aforementioned shortwave and adjacent cold front,
however, trends continue to point towards the feature remaining
north of our CWA (primarily in middle Tennessee). Therefore,
continued with blended guidance of low to medium chances of
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The LREF shows
limited CAPE (~300-500 J/kg) with relatively weak shear and
unimpressive low level lapse rates (~6 C/km) Wednesday evening. We
will continue to monitor this trend as we push into early next
week. Post-frontal conditions are forecast to be cooler and dry
with dew points dropping into the low 50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies and light northeasterly winds. Low chances for showers
and storms will increase Monday afternoon and have included PROB30
groups for both terminals to highlight this risk. Reductions to
MVFR or lower conditions will be possible during heavier storms.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25