882
FXUS64 KHUN 040552
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1252 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

With a mid and upper level ridge axis now to our east along the
east central Coast, flow has become southeast to south. This
change has not alleviated the smoke plume in high levels over the
region. However, loss of daytime heating will result in cumulus
dissipation early this evening. A light southeast to south
surface flow will keep temperatures mild overnight with dew
points staying in the lower 60s. A smoky but clear sky is
anticipated overnight. Low temperatures will dip into middle to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The upper low over the northeast Gulf will begin to lift northeast
through Wednesday Night into GA. This will generate outer bands
of convergence that pivot northwest into central and north AL
during the afternoon hours. Most CAMs keep this at 20% or less
coverage, so not expecting a large adjustment to the forecast at
this point. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s both
Wednesday and Thursday, possibly hitting 90 in a few spots.
Thursday remains more uncertain on thunderstorm chances as the
upper low weakens and lifts northeast into the Carolinas.
Nevertheless, instability and moisture will be plentiful for more
typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms, so low chances will
be maintained.

On Friday, the 5h ridge will hold strong across southern TX into
the Gulf, with a strong mid level speed max and shortwave impulse
pushing east through the central Plains and Ozarks early in the
day, and into the OH and lower TN valley Friday afternoon and
evening. The warm sector will warm into the upper 80s to around 90
once again with dew points into the lower 70s potentially. Bulk
deep layer shear will increase to 25-35kt with ample surface-based
CAPE of 2000+ J/Kg to yield severe storms with hail and wind the
main threats. Thus, will keep medium to high PoPs Friday into
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The beginning of the long term will feature a quasi-zonal pattern
across the regional initially, which will gradually give way to an
Eastern trough pattern by early/mid next week. At the end of
Friday and into the weekend, an enhanced southern stream mid-lvl
jet will move across the region, atop a moisture-laden air mass.
The better dynamics associated with the jet will tend be to our
north, with the jet weakening as it evolves southward across the
region during the weekend. Resulting deep layer shear of ~40 kts
will be supportive of modest storm organization, but which will
also be dependent on necessary CAPEs. In general, ML/SB CAPES
would tend to be supportive, but it`s expected that the
possibility for heavy cloud cover at times and precipitation will
tend to modify or temper instability. Aside from this caveat,
MLCAPES yielding 1500 J/kg amidst the model shear and elongated
hodographs during portions of Saturday/Sunday could generate
severe weather potential, mainly in the form of large hail and
damaging winds. PWs and Spec Humidity values will be supportive of
very heavy rainfall rates with values largely >90th percentile
for much of the weekend based on NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles, while
wind profiles indicate some training of cells could occur along a
W-E oriented thermal boundary. Thus, it`s important not to forget
the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding during this
period as well.

The thermal boundary/front will tend to sag slowly southwards
through the period, with better thermal forcing to our south
probably on Monday and afterwards. Nevertheless, the continuation
of rich low-level moisture and diurnal heating (combined with
uncertainty on the southward extent of movement of the boundary)
will lead to a continuation of POPs into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR weather should continue into the early afternoon, as a
southerly flow continues across the Tennessee Valley. This flow
will bring deeper moisture to the area as we go into the late
morning. The moisture and strong daytime heating could produce
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Given that more of the models were showing this wetter trend, have
added a PROB30 of -TSRA for both terminals this afternoon, which
also coincides with the highest instability. Any shower activity
should fade after sunset, with VFR weather expected Wed evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...RSB