267
FXUS64 KHUN 031120
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
620 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Highly impactful tornadic supercells continue to track along a
strong boundary in northern MS through middle TN. We are
monitoring gust fronts that may push southeast of this line which
could trigger additional thunderstorms which may clip far
northwest AL. The environment is very favorable for tornadoes.
Just looking at 07Z temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and
dew points in the middle to upper 60s with ample inflow are
concerning in early April. If we can make it through 12Z, the
risk should subside a bit for our counties as the boundary may
tend to lift northward some today. However, that being said, it
will remain close and we have maintained low chances in NW AL
through this afternoon. We may approach or break record highs
today, depending on cloud cover and any precipitation in NW AL.

Record highs today are:

MSL 87 in 1934
HSV 88 in 1999

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue into Saturday. Mid/upper level
blocking over the east Pacific basin and east Atlantic and Europe
regions will keep most of the convection to our west. Thursday
appears will be the wettest day, as the line of convection moves
over our more western areas in the afternoon. Discrete cell
development is possible east of the main area of convection. In a
more unstable environment thanks to strong daytime heating (with
high temperatures into the low/mid 80s) will produce a rather
unstable conditions with CAPES ranging from around 1000 J/kg east
to over 2500 J/kg west. An at times breezy southerly low level
flow will create 100-250 m/s of 0-3km helicity. Thus in line with
the Day-2 convective outlook, storms over our more western areas
could become severe. Main threats will come from damaging wind
gusts and large hail, and a low tornado risk.

The drier trend will continue through early afternoon Saturday.
High temperatures to close out the week will rise into the mid
80s. Showers to our west should begin creeping more to the east in
the afternoon and later.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Higher rain chances should be realized Saturday evening, as the
system to our west finally moves more to the east. A cold front
with this system should move across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday - with a low confidence. The slower timing from the
blends was used this go around. Some of the storms before and with
the frontal passage could become strong to severe. Will stay with
an all modes potential of severe phenomena that could occur. One
item of the frontal passage is that much cooler air will filter
in. The substantial airmass change will help with overall storm
strength. With the airmass change and high rain chances, high
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid/upper 60s west to
lower 70s east.

Much colder air will filter in Sunday nigh with lows tumbling into
the mid 40s. Highs to start the new work week, Monday will only
rise to around 60. The cold change will continue Mon night with
lows into mid to upper 30s (close to frosting!). Highs on Tuesday
will only rise into the upper 50s. A bit colder Tue night with
lows in the low/mid 30s. This night appears to be the coldest one,
with a good chance for areawide frost and possible freezing
conditions. A warming trend is expected for the mid week, with
highs rising into the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR CIGS are in place at the KHSV terminal. Further west, VFR
CIGS have pushed north into the terminal. Think lower CIGS could
hold on a bit longer at KHSV, maybe until 17Z. Then expect VFR
conditions there as well. Breezy conditions will continue with
southerly winds increasing to between 10 and 20 knots with gusts
of 25 to 30 knots this afternoon. Wind shear will likely need to
be added this evening, but will off until next issuance to
include.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW