Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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199
FXUS64 KHUN 060005
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
605 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The tale of a meandering boundary across the TN Valley continues
this afternoon, and this will be the case for much of this week and
into the weekend for the CWFA. As was alluded to in the morning
update, an area of low pressure in the desert SW is traversing the S
Central Plains this afternoon, loosely connected to a diffuse
boundary that bisects N AL and Srn Middle TN, helping to spread
showers from SSW to NNE across the region. Coverage has been a bit
of a headache with varying output from HIRES models for this
afternoon and evening. Though PoPs are likely a bit overdone at this
hour, there are showers advecting into the CWFA (and further
development upstream), so will leave the higher PoPs in favor of a
high PoP/low QPF scenario for the rest of this afternoon. There are
a few tstorms noted on regional radars, the closest of which is
vacating Memphis as of this writing, and this trend of low chances
(10-30%) will continue thru this evening. Given moisture pooling
ahead of what will be the warm front lifting northward across the
area, this moisture will combine with increasing shear as the
boundary moves through this evening. Thankfully, instability later
this evening will be negligible, which will translate to the
threat for perhaps 30-40mph in any of the more robust convection
that develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Rain chances remain off/on again Thu and Fri as the area of low
pressure moves NE into the Great Lakes region, with a secondary area
of low pressure developing in OK. This will continue to meander the
boundary north and south of the area, each time providing low to
moderate chances for showers and perhaps a tstorm. Mild conditions
will continue during his time with daytime highs 65-70F Thu/Fri and
surging warmer for Saturday, topping out in the middle to upper 70s.

Saturday will be muggy as we find ourselves in the warm sector of
another approaching area of low pressure to the W. SSW winds will
gust up to 20-25mph ahead of this system, with a line of
showers/storms moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

At this time, the sfc low will move NE into the OH Valley,
plunging the front S of the area Sunday. But, like a broken
record, an upper level disturbance will induce cyclogenesis again
over the Srn Plains, dragging the boundary northward toward/
through the CWFA once again on Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to
heavy rainfall is possible with this system to start the work
week, with widespread 1-2" of rainfall expected, with higher
amounts possible. The main concern with this timeframe is more
tied to saturated conditions in place before the heavy rainfall,
so runoff will be something to watch causing the potential for
creek/river flooding for the middle of next week. The CPC has our
area highlighted in a Moderate Risk for heavy rainfall, with areas
to our N highlighted with slightly higher flooding potential for
the same timeframe. Stay tuned for further forecast updates in the
coming days involving the heavy rainfall and potential resultant
flooding we may see.

Beyond the threat for heavy rainfall for the middle of the week,
colder air comes back to the area, so I hope everyone enjoyed the
brief taste of Spring with 70F temps that we recently had. Morning
lows to start the day Thursday will flirt with the freezing mark
for much of the Central/NW portions of the area, with lows between
35- 40F for our SErn zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A return to MVFR conditions will occur by late this evening in
wake of these initial band of -RA as low stratus settle in with
this very moist environment. SSW winds up to 10 kts should keep
the boundary layer sufficiently mixed to prevent much in the way
of appreciable visibility reductions. A gradual improvement in
ceilings will occur by Thursday afternoon and a return to low-end
VFR conditions will occur.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee
Valley region in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation
between February 13-15, 2025. Precipitation exceeding 1.0 to 1.5
inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...AMP
CLIMATE...CGA