537
FXUS64 KHUN 081143
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
543 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low stratus remains in place across much of the central TN Valley
this early Fri morning, with a weak frontal boundary remaining
fairly stagnant from east TN into central AL/MS. These clouds
should diminish/lift with the onset of the daytime hrs, as weak
upper ridging over the lower MS Valley/Midwest regions continues
to move east. The frontal boundary to the south should also remain
fairly stagnant into the afternoon hrs, as low level flow veers
more to the ENE. All of this should again result in seasonably
warm afternoon temps, with highs climbing into the mid/upper 70s
for most spots, under partly/mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A potent upper low/trough pattern across the southern Plains will
then traverse NNE into the mid Plains/upper MS Valley heading
into the weekend period. An attendant sfc low will also lift into
the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes areas, as another frontal boundary
approaches from the W/NW late in the weekend period. Increasing
showers, along with a few embedded tstms, are expected to develop
along/ahead of the oncoming front Sat/Sun. With the rapid influx
of moisture out of the SE/S coupled with a weak convergent pattern
along the front, some of the showers/tstms may be heavy at time
late Sat night into Sun.

This should at least provide some much needed for the central TN
Valley, especially along/west of I-65. The front may actually
slow/stall invof the area late this weekend, before eventually
drifting to the SE going into the Veterans`s Day holiday. With the
flow pattern turning more zonal, the influx of slightly cooler
may also be delayed more into the Sun/Sun night time frame.
Afternoon highs in the lower/mid 70s Sat look to trend more in the
upper 60s/near 70F Sun afternoon. Overnight lows may struggle to
fall past the mid/upper 50s as well, given the lingering cloud
cover/rainfall. Sfc winds may also gusts around 20-25 MPH at times
going more into the second half of the weekend period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

By Veterans Day, the upper level pattern over the CONUS should be
more of zonal orientation, as opposed to the current amplified flow.
An upper low that was part of the western CONUS troughing on
Monday will quickly head eastward across the St Lawrence Seaway.
A surface low under this upper support will have a cold front
extending to the SSW. This front should be moving across the
Tennessee Valley on Veterans Day. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms occurring as the front passes in the morning should
end from west to east during the course of the day. Rainfall
totals by Monday should range from one half of an inch over our
eastern areas, to as much as 2 inches for the west. High
temperatures for the day should rise into the lower 70s.

With drier and slightly cooler air finally filtering across the
area, high pressure building in from the NW will result in lows
Monday night falling into the mid 40s to around 50. Under
generally sunny skies, a bit cooler Tuesday with highs in the
upper 60s to around 70. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday
night with lows around 50.

Another storm system now moving over the North Pacific near the
International Date Line should be moving across the Lower-48
during the midweek. It will bring clouds and another chance of
showers for Wednesday into early Thursday. Wednesday appears will
be the last warm day for a spell with highs in the lower 70s.
This system will bring another cold front across the area early
Thursday. High temperatures later that day with a colder airmass
filtering in should range in the lower 60s. For reference normal
high/low temperatures by then are around 64/41.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

LIFR cigs near 400ft remain in place at both main terminals this
early Fri morning although cigs are expected to lift closer to 2K
ft later this morning. Cigs will continue to lift above 3K ft
heading more into the afternoon hrs, as a weak frontal boundary
remains stalled south of the area. VFR conds will continue into
the evening/overnight periods, as mid level cloud cover diminishes
across the area. Sfc winds will also remain out of the NE around
7-8kt for much of the daytime hrs before slightly weakening this
evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09