245
FXUS64 KHUN 240835
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

High pressure will continue to be dominant over the region today,
with the 500mb and 850mb highs shifting slightly southwest through
the day. This will result in another day of brutal heat, with
highs reaching into the mid 90s and heat indices near 105 degrees.
This also brings the risk of heat-related impacts up to the Major
Risk category - affecting anyone without effective cooling and
adequate hydration. Please practice heat safety today by staying
hydrated, taking frequent breaks in the shade or cooling areas,
using sunscreen, and protecting people and pets more susceptible
to the heat. Will see mostly sunny skies and winds will remain
light and variable throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The chances for afternoon thunderstorms has increased slightly on
Wednesday, with chances remaining low (10-20%) but storms that do
develop will have the capability of being strong to marginally
severe. We will continue to monitor short term trends regarding
storms tomorrow and will update accordingly. The main concern
continues to be the dangerous heat through the short term
forecast.

Previous discussion:
The center of the 5h and 8h highs will shift southwest into the
central TN valley into Wednesday, producing continued hot
temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will also persist, although a bit of
afternoon mixing may dip dew points slightly lower as the slight
drier air and lower PWs shift westward. Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain at 10% or lower the next two
days. That changes considerably Wednesday night into Thursday as
the center of the upper high shifts west and an upper low lifts
into the FL peninsula with an inverted trough axis, and possibly
convectively enhanced MCVs shift west. A few showers or
thunderstorms could arrive Wednesday night, mainly in our eastern
counties. But Thursday should provide at minimum scattered showers
and thunderstorms, but I suspect PoPs will continue going up model
run to run. Gusty to damaging downburst winds and frequent
lightning will be likely with the thunderstorms Thursday into
Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

As the upper low in FL wobbles northwest into GA Friday into
Saturday, PoPs will progressively go up into the medium to high
chance range and very likely into Sunday and Monday as well was
the low weakens but a trough/shear axis remains over GA and east
TN. Thunderstorms should tend to diminish in coverage and
intensity each evening with loss of daytime heating. Locally heavy
rain is possible based on 90th percentile and higher data, but
ensemble forecast mean data suggests around an inch or so through
day 7. The airmass suggests higher would be more likely. The good
news is that the clouds and precipitation will keep high
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will
likely reach their maxes during midday or early afternoon as
convection erupts each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at both
terminals with clear skies and light/var winds. Will monitor sites
overnight to make sure fog development is accounted for in TAFs if
this becomes an issue.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ001>003.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ALZ004>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ076-
     096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25/17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25