959
FXUS64 KHUN 090359
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Only a few small showers left on the radar late this evening as
slightly drier air moves into the area. This should also help
mitigate fog concerns across much of the area except for areas
that received recent rainfall and sheltered areas/river valleys.
The remainder of the night should be fairly uneventful with
clearing skies and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Large scale subsidence will take over as high pressure positions
just to our north and keeps the relatively drier air in place.
Will maintain a dry forecast through the day tomorrow with highs
mostly in the upper 80s. A few locations could hit the 90 degree
mark, especially in urban areas. Clouds will slowly increase
toward the afternoon as better moisture begins to advect into the
area as we head closer to the evening hours. Overall, not a bad
forecast for a Saturday in early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The Southeast will remain positioned between an upper trough over
the northern Plains and low pressure off the northern Atlantic
coast while upper ridging continues to bring warmer temps and
better moisture to the area. Will see an increase in thunderstorm
chances each afternoon with low chance PoPs (20-30%) Sunday
afternoon increasing to 30-40% on Monday. With PWATs between
1.8-2", we could see some heavy rainfall producers but the overall
threat for flooding looks low at this time. Afternoon
thunderstorms could also produce gusty winds and frequent
lightning, so be sure to monitor the forecast if you have any
outdoor plans and have a plan in place should you need to seek
shelter indoors quickly if lightning occurs. The good news is that
even though it will feel hotter than what we have experienced over
the past week, heat indices should remain below the 100 degree
mark through Monday. Please still remember to stay hydrated and
always look before you lock! Overnight lows will remain in the
upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Extended range guidance from the lastest suite of global models
suggests that the Atlantic subtropical ridge (in the mid-levels) will
gradually expand northwestward into the southeastern CONUS over the
course of the long term period. As this occurs, a weak shortwave
trough (initially across the central Plains) will lift northeastward
along the northern flank of the ridge, and although there is
considerable uncertainty regarding the speed of this feature, there
is reasonable agreement that a minor increase in WSW flow aloft (to
10-20 knots) will contribute to moistening profiles aloft and a
greater spatial coverage of showers/thunderstorms (both during the
day and at night) on Tuesday/Wednesday. Current blended model data
indicates a 50-60% POP both afternoons, and with CAPE constrained to
the 1000-1500 J/kg range by nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates,
lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the most significant
impacts as storms will be unorganized and should exhibit slow/erratic
motions. With precipitable water values expected to be rising back
into the 2-2.2" range at the beginning of the extended period, flash
flooding could become a concern in a few locations. Highs both days
will be in the 85-90F range, with lows in the u60s-l70s.

By Thursday/Friday, there are indications that the subtropical ridge
will become more established across the TN Valley, and although this
will ultimately result in steeper lapse rates aloft/higher CAPE (and
subsequent risk for strong-severe downburst winds), it should also
result in a progressively lower coverage of thunderstorms both
afternoons. As POPs fall back into the 30-40% range, highs will
increase into the u80s-m90s, with dewpoints in the l-m 70s supporting
afternoon HI of 100-105F once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue at the HSV/MSL terminals this
forecast period, with a light SE wind (~ 5 kts) expected to keep
nocturnal BR/FG development confined to the larger valleys of
northeast AL. Diurnal Cu formation is likely to occur once again
by 16Z, but with very little in terms of convection indicated in
the most recent CAMs we will not include any PROB30 groups for
SHRA/TSRA at this point. Skies will partially clear Saturday
evening, with SSE flow of 5-10 kts (during the daylight hours)
gradually subsiding during this timeframe.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD