352
FXUS64 KHUN 222007
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure will shift east tonight which will lower wind
speeds tonight. Low clouds blanketing the upper MS and lower MO
valleys is progged to also shift southeast tonight. HREF guidance
from several members indicate this may affect mainly southern middle
TN and perhaps far northeast AL. Areas to widespread frost appear
likely tonight with low temperatures in the lower 30s. There may be a
few locations briefly dipping to 31-32 at 11-12Z, but a widespread
freeze appears unlikely. Thus, have opted to issue a Frost Advisory
for our AL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

5h will become deamplified quickly Saturday into Sunday across much
of the southern and central CONUS. The surface high will shift into
the FL peninsula by Sunday. This will ensure a dry weekend with a
warming trend. Morning lows Sunday will be in the middle 30s for most
with perhaps a couple of spots in southern middle TN dipping to 32. High
temperatures will reach the 50s Saturday and lower to middle 60s for
valley areas (upper 50s Plateau areas) on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A more active period will set up beginning Monday as upper ridging
shifts east of the area and a trough nears from the central Plains.
Will see moisture increase on Monday ahead of a cold front tied to
the aforementioned trough and will result in the warmest day of the
forecast period with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday
afternoon. Will introduce low chances (20-30%) for rain Monday
afternoon with high chances (70-80%) during the evening and
overnight hours. Moisture looks to be a bit limited over the area
with this system, so overall rainfall amounts look to be below 1/4"
at this time. With limited instability, thunder chances remain very
low at this time.

The forecast for Tuesday looks cooler but dry at this time, with
highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows will drop into the
upper 30s/lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is when our
next system shifts east through the Plains and model guidance
diverges from there. While the GFS favors more of a heavy rain event,
the ECMWF takes the sfc low slightly farther north and puts us more
in the warm sector. The exact track of the sfc low will make a big
difference between just rain and potentially strong storms, but we
continue to have very low confidence on how this system will set up
over our area. What we do have confidence in is that the area will
see at least some rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday and cooler
temperatures will follow. Stay tuned for updates as the late-week
system gets closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR flight weather conditions will last into this evening.
North to northwest winds will gust at 15-20kt this afternoon.
There is a medium to high chance that low ceilings of 015-025agl
(MVFR) spread south through southern middle TN into parts of north
AL, including KHSV. It is a lower chance at KMSL. Conditions are
forecast to improve back to VFR by 16Z, but there remains some
uncertainty on this clearing trend, so updates may be needed.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17