204
FXUS64 KHUN 290653
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
153 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 850 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

 - Dangerous heat will return early next week and will tend to
   intensify through the week with heat indices approaching or
   exceeding 100 degrees.

 - There are low chances for thunderstorms each day mainly from
   Sunday afterward, and especially in higher terrain areas during
   the afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

An inverted trough at the surface through 925 mph was located
near the I-65 corridor in AL into middle TN. This feature shifts
west today and allows PWs of 1.0-1.5 inches and surface dew
points in the lower 70s to advect northwest into areas along and
east of I-65. This may allow for additional cumulus to develop
today. The probability of a shower or thunderstorm is 10% or less
along Sand and Lookout Mtns and into Cullman County. Otherwise,
expect another day with highs in the lower 90s to for most valley
areas, with upper 80s along the higher terrain in our eastern
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The short term forecast will change little as the synoptic pattern
favors a strong upper high/ridging centering closer to the region.
As H85 heights rise, so will our temperatures each day with mid
90s highs becoming more widespread over the area. The good news is
that the southerly Gulf fetch is not as strong with this wave and
moisture/humidity will not be quite as high. This will keep
thunderstorm chances capped at 20-30% or below each day, mainly
over NE AL. Heat indices will climb to the 99-105 degree range
which will pose a risk for heat related illness especially for
those more susceptible to heat. Right now the coverage of heat
indices at or above 105 degrees looks a bit more limited and we
have no current plans to issue any Heat Advisories, but that could
change as we get closer to next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
updates and always follow heat safety guidelines!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

By the start of the long term, ridging will be centered over the
TN Valley. This will be paired with high pressure over the eastern
CONUS at the surface. The high pressure will work to keep rain
chances low and set temps on a warming trend. Highs look to warm
from the low 90s back to the high 90s by the end of the week.
Surface high pressure will induce weak ESE flow which will
gradually return dew points to the 70s. While we will have to keep
and eye on trends, models currently keep dew points in the low
70s which will work in our favor to keep heat indices below Heat
Advisory criteria (105F). Under ESE flow, dew points look highest
in NE AL. As such, low chances (20% or less) for terrain enhanced
showers are forecast each afternoon. Without any widespread
forcing for clouds and rain, heat will be our primary concern
through the long term forecast. Make sure to check back for
updates and continue to practice proper heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northern Alabama and
southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Temperatures for September 5th and 6th. There is a 40-60%
chance for temperatures above 95 degrees F and heat index values
exceeding 105 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17