760
FXUS64 KHUN 041055
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

There remains a very low chance (10%) of a few showers over
northeast Alabama through early this morning. Additionally, a low
stratus cloud deck has overspread the local area over the past few
hours and this is expected to persist for much of the day,
especially east of I-65. Clouds may scatter out over the western
portion of the area by this afternoon. This cloud deck, as well as
winds between 5-10 mph will limit fog development this morning.

We are watching temperatures as well, since lows are forecast to
be fairly cool (compared to what we saw for most of July).
Currently, temperatures range between the mid to upper 60s for
most locations; although, Huntsville still remains at 70 degrees
and Muscle Shoals at 71 degrees as of this writing. As mentioned
previously, if the temperature drops below 70 degrees this morning
for both of these locations, it`ll be the first time since July
4th that this has occurred.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for today. Surface high
pressure over the Appalachians and a stalled front near the Gulf
coast will keep easterly flow in place over the region, leading to
cooler temperatures (mid 70s in the east to lower 80s in the
west). Chances for showers and storms will be highest over
northeast Alabama (30-50%), with low chances (~20%) elsewhere.
Model guidance indicates that bulk shear increases to around 30
knots or so in the west later this afternoon into early this
evening, but instability will be rather limited due to cloud cover
and lower temperatures. Thus, while there is enough shear and
instability for thunderstorm development, severe weather is not
expected today. We`ll need to continue to watch northeast Alabama
for any flooding concerns though, as this area has seen a lot of
rain recently. Remember, turn around, don`t drown if you encounter
flooded roads!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Not much of a change in the weather pattern as we head into the
middle of the week. An upper level trough axis will be situated
across the Mississippi River Valley which will allow for some weak
shortwaves to propagate northeastward from the eastern Gulf into
the Southeast. The bulk of the precip should south and east of the
local forecast area, however, given the moist atmosphere cannot
rule out daily low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and
thunderstorms with the greatest potential across northeast AL.
Cloud cover and precip chances will hold afternoon highs both
Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s east of I-65
and mid to upper 80s west of I-65. Overnight lows each night will
dip into the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A gradual warming trend is forecast as we head into the long term
forecast period. Mid to upper level ridging begins to amplify
across the Desert Southwest. As the ridge shifts eastward heading
into the weekend, afternoon highs push back into the upper 80s to
lower 90s, which is close to climatological normals for this time
of year. Medium range guidance shows a cut-off low centered across
the Southeast Thursday through Saturday. This will provide low to
medium (20-40%) chances of daily diurnally driven thunderstorms.
Wide spread severe storms are not expected as these will be the
typical summertime storms. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the
main threats.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A low stratus deck has overspread much of the Tennessee Valley
overnight. This has led to MVFR CIGs that will continue through
much of the day (especially east of I-65). Low clouds may scatter
out later this afternoon for areas west of I-65. If clouds thin
over locations east of I-65, it likely won`t be until this
evening. For rain chances today, higher chances (30-50%) will be
concentrated over northeast Alabama through the day, with low
chances (15-20%) elsewhere in the afternoon. Chances are too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. A concern for late tonight is
low CIGs once again, but with conditions forecast to drop to IFR.
Confidence is low whether much fog will form and if it does,
whether it will impact the terminals. This will be reassessed with
future updates. East to southeast winds today will range between
5-10 knots, with gusts to between 15-17 knots along and east of
I-65. Winds will then decrease through this evening to be light
and variable by late tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26