285
FXUS64 KHUN 060639
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1239 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

 - Temperatures will be on the rise this week, with highs reaching
   the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thursday.

 - Low-medium rain and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) return
   Thursday and Friday.

 - We are monitoring the Friday system with some indications that
   there will be a low chance for a few strong to marginally
   severe storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Under the influence of sfc high pressure to our east, southerly to
southwesterly winds are forecast to continue advecting moisture
and subsequent cloud cover into the TN Valley through Tuesday.
Overnight, fog should be discouraged from the cloud cover as well
as elevated winds (gusts up to 15-20 mph at times). Low
temperatures are forecast to remain relatively warmer due to the
ongoing cloud cover, only dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s.
Zonal flow aloft will continue this pattern into Tuesday, during
which highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s under
continued cloud cover. A weak disturbance will allow a low chance
(less than 20%) of drizzle, primarily along and east of I-65
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

As upper level ridging begins to build into the area from the
west, above normal highs continue through mid week with
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. This is around
20 degrees above normal for this time of year. As a sfc low
transitions southeast into the Mississippi Valley, a weak cold
front is forecast to move through our area from the northwest.
No significant rainfall or change in temperature is expected with
this. However, winds will shift to be northeasterly for a brief
window before becoming SSE overnight into Thursday morning. On
Thursday, highs will once again reach the upper 60s (with several
spots forecast to reach 70). Our primary role in the short term
will be keeping up with trends of an upper level low forecast to
shift northeasterly out of the Baja California region. There is
still disagreement on the speed of this system (as well as
subsequent threats/rainfall amounts), however, a cold front will
likely move through the TN Valley in the long term period. Ahead
of this, a ~50 kt LLJ will influence the region on Thursday. This
will cause gusty, southerly winds up to 20-30 mph that will
persist through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Our primary concern in the long term period will be the
aforementioned cold front, forecast to swing through the area
Friday night into Saturday morning. This front will bring medium
to high chances (60-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. At this
time, threats include heavy rainfall/flooding, gusty to damaging
winds, and a very low tornado threat. PWATs on Friday are forecast
to reach 1.2-1.4" throughout the area, which is above the 90th
percentile per BMX sounding climatology. Despite a disagreement in
models on the amount of rainfall, these storms will likely be
efficient rainfall producers and cause ponding of water in low
lying areas. We will be monitoring the potential for flash
flooding and rises in creeks, rivers, and streams as we continue
through the week and models fall more in agreement. As far as the
severe threat goes, instability and lapse rates continue to look
relatively meager. Shear, however, continues to support at least a
gusty wind threat and the potential for organized convection. SPC
has outlooked portions of NW AL in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather on Friday into Saturday morning. Recent
ensembles have supported this threat to potentially be expanded
southeastward. We will continue to monitor trends through the
week, and we encourage all to check back in for updates.

Saturday, low rain chances (less than 20%) remain possible within
blended guidance due to the disagreement on what time the front
will officially clear the area. Post-frontal conditions are
forecast to be dry with CAA moving into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals early in the
forecast period, featuring a bkn layer of Ci and light SSE wind.
However, current satellite imagery does indicate that low stratus
clouds to our south will expand northward rather quickly early
this morning, resulting in MVFR cigs by 9-10Z. Once established,
overcast stratus will persist for much of the day, with cloud
bases falling to IFR-levels at times (along with some patchy/light
drizzle and rain). Conditions will begin to improve as skies
clear late this aftn (and especially this evening) due to a minor
surge of drier air spreading southeastward in the wake of a
weakening cold front. As moderately strong SW flow at the sfc
transitions to lgt/vrbl with the approach of the front, conditions
could become favorable for development of BR/FG late Tue evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD