357
FXUS64 KHUN 241755
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1255 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A decaying mesoscale convective complex moving ESE across the
OK/AR, should be south of our area by the evening. Even though
this complex should continue fading, decent upper level support
accompanying it will help bring unsettled weather to the Tennessee
Valley for the rest of today and tonight. For most of the mid
morning, the majority of lightning was mainly over parts of NW
Alabama and south of the Tennessee River for the central and
eastern areas.

That could change as we go into the late morning and this
afternoon, as several more areas of more intense convection nears
from the WNW. A first of this activity was now entering NW
Alabama, with another area nearing the Mid South and NW
Mississippi. Activity within these convective maxima`s could bring
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The
main threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, with a
low tornado risk. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out under the
heaviest showers.

With plenty of clouds from the approaching MCS, am doubtful that
any direct sun will be experienced today. Thus, high temperatures
will remain mainly in the mid 70s. Any sun that breaks through
could result in local temperatures nearing 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Unsettled and at times stormy weather will continue for the start
of the new week. A stationary front now draped from central MS to
southern AL/GA will slowly move northward as a warm front on
Sunday/Monday. Although the boundary should remain south of the
Tennessee Valley through Memorial Day, it`s presence and a high
probability of more passing disturbances and possible convective
complexes, will keep moderate to high chances for more showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center now
has most of the forecast area in a Slight (2/5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms, with a 1/5 Marginal Risk on Monday.

In addition to a severe thunderstorm risk, episodes of moderate
heavy showers could bring more instances of water ponding in low
spots as well as a flash flooding risk. These odds will increase
should any of the area be impacted by locally heavy rainfall.

Thanks to more extensive clouds and elevated rain chances, cool
conditions for the start of the summer vacation season are
forecast. High temperatures both Sunday and Memorial Day will
only rise to around 80, about 5 degrees cooler than seasonable
norms. Lows will be close to norms in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Yet another trough axis arrives Tuesday, with widespread showers
and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain expected. As an upper low
or trough takes shape over the western Great Lakes into the
northern Plains, westerly flow at 5h will be forced to persist
across the southern U.S. This keeps a rather active parade of
shortwaves and thunderstorm chances through the week. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly below normals, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A weakening thunderstorm complex moving ESE across OK/AR, is
forecast to pass across central AL this evening. Upper level
support and other convection preceding it will help keep chances
of showers/thunderstorms for the TAF. One such complex was nearing
the I-65 corridor south of the TN River, with other disturbances
headed this direction from the WNW. The main portions of those
disturbances should remain south of the terminals this evening,
but will be close enough to warrant a vicinity mention. Shower
activity should wind down from west to east in the late evening
and overnight. Additional development is possible late in the TAF
Sunday morning, but chances are too uncertain for TAF inclusion
this issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RSB