715
FXUS64 KHUN 161135
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Cooler temperatures expected tonight behind a dry cold front.

 - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
   night through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 144 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A batch of broken to overcast mid level clouds are moving through
the TN Valley at this hour, ahead of the approaching cold front
that is currently exiting the Bootheel of MO. Wind gusts have
been under preforming so far tonight, however, obs upstream do
show them increasing ahead of and along the front. Despite the
wind gusts at the sfc, will note that winds aloft this morning
will be gusty enough to create wind shear issues which is further
discussed in the Aviation portion of the AFD.

As the front moves through later this morning, we`ll experience
those gusty sfc winds up to 20 kts and clouds clearing out
leaving us with mostly sunny skies. Should be able to afternoon
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, which will be a few
degrees cooler than Saturday, but still several degrees warmer
than normal. Heads up, that CAA behind the front will really
filter in tonight, making the lows ~10 degrees cooler than this
morning, with values reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s. So make
sure you are bundled up for the bus stop and morning commute
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The aforementioned dry front will pass through the CWA during the
day with NW flow both at the surface and aloft. While post frontal clear
skies and calm winds will allow temps to rise into the mid 60s to
low 70s, the full effect of NW flow induced CAA will be felt on
Sunday night. Temps will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s area
wide providing a significant shake up from our recent mild nights.
The good news is this cool down will be short lived as surface
high pressure builds in behind the front. A warming trend will set
up from Monday through Wednesday with temps warming from the mid
60s to the high 70s. As we approach mid week the pattern will
become a little unsettled as the first of several shortwaves pass
by the TN Valley. Locally this will result in cloud cover
increasing from Tuesday into Wednesday as well as the return of
low rain chances (10-30%) or areas north of the TN River on
Wednesday. This unsettled pattern will continue into the long term
forecast with additional uncertainty as we head into the end of
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The long term forecast will be slightly more unsettled as a low
pressure system pushes into the western coast and translates east
across the county. A surface low with a trailing cold front and
attached warm front looks to accompany this feature and impact
our weather locally through the weekend. Along and ahead of the
passage of the cold front, cloudy conditions will plague the
local area from Wednesday through Friday. Low rain chances will
also be present (10-30 %) for areas north of the TN River. The
broad WSW flow will allow some moisture to return to the area
returning dew points to the 60s and nudging temps into the mid to
high 70s each day.

The front looks to pass on Friday however ensemble models remain
unresolved regarding specific timing and strength of the front.
While rain continues to look likely on Friday (50-70%),
thunderstorm chances look much more questionable. Ensembles show
favorable low and mid level shear however the persistent overcast
conditions may limit instability. The fine details will determine
our storm chances on Friday and unfortunately we will have to wait
a few more days for this time frame to be within HIRES model
coverage. Until then we will continue to monitor the trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

MVFR CIGs and wind shear concerns will diminish over the next few
hours as the cold front arrives. Behind the front, winds will
veer to become more northerly with wind gusts up to 15 kts and VFR
CIGs will return. Winds will slack with sunset and VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of the TAF package.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS