105
FXUS64 KHUN 041440
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
840 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 840 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

 - Confidence continues to increase in frontal passage on Friday
   contributing to high rain chances and strong to severe storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 840 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Clear and calm overnight conditions allowed for temps to drop into
the high 30s to 40s this morning with waterways and valleys seeing
some patchy to locally dense fog. With sunrise fog has already
begun to dissipate and temps have warmed several degrees into the
low to mid 40s. Surface high pressure centered over the TN Valley
will drive our weather today with subsidence promoting clear skies
allowing temps to rise into the high 60s to perhaps the low 70s in
some urban locations. The pleasant day time conditions will carry
into the night with the warming trend yielding lows several
degrees warmer tonight in the mid 40s. Dew points look to remain
in the low 40s dissuading any widespread fog formation despite the
clear skies. Rather waterways and valleys will be most
susceptible to some patchy to locally dense fog during the
sunrise hours tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 840 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The short term will offer more of the same through Thursday.
High pressure and ridging aloft will slowly shift east placing us
in a return flow pattern through Friday. This will prolong our
warming trend with highs in the 70s each day and lows in the 40s
and 50s. With benign weather through the middle of the work week,
our attention quickly switches to Friday where a frontal passage
will bring our next chances of rain and potential for some strong
to severe storms.

Our rain and storm chances will be driven by a mid to upper level
low passing through the Great Lakes region with several
shortwaves rippling along the base of the trough through the TN
Valley. At the surface, an attendant cold front looks to move
through the region on Friday however cluster analysis still
disagrees slightly on the time frame between afternoon Friday to
early morning Saturday. While several details, like timing, will
take a few more days for the models to resolve, there are a few
trends that are becoming apparent. This looks to be a more typical
cool season high shear low CAPE event, thus the presence of
instability (or lack of) will have a significant impact on our
severe chances. Along and ahead of the front moisture transport
from SW winds will aid in returning our dew points to the 50s.
However, uncertainty remains in exactly how moist and unstable we
may be able to get. Likewise, due to the significant distance from
the parent low, there is some uncertainty regarding how strong
the frontal forcing will be this far south. It is likely that
there will be a geographic sweet spot where enough forcing will
overlap with enough instability to trigger some strong to severe
storms however it is unclear if we will be in that sweet spot or
if it may be offset to the north of us. We will continue to
monitor these trends as the period draws closer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Two main features of focus for the long term period will be a
system that brings potentially strong storms Friday and an influx
of cold air early next week. Significant disagreement remains in
clusters regarding the evolution and track of an upper level
disturbance shifting generally eastward throughout the U.S. into
the Tennessee Valley vicinity this weekend. LREF shows up to
400-500 J/kg of CAPE moving in along and west of I-65 Friday
afternoon/evening, which could allow some strong storms if
realized. However, confidence remains low due to the
aforementioned disagreement. Blended guidance was kept in the
forecast through the long term due to uncertainty, which brings
medium chances of showers and thunderstorms into the area by
Friday afternoon and continues rain chances through Friday
evening.

Ensembles are agreeing on an influx of cold air early next week,
in which we could drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for overnight
lows (potentially prompting freeze products). The Climate
Predication Center (CPC) has outlooked portions of NE AL in a
moderate risk (40-60%) for much below normal temperatures on
November 11th. Therefore, if you have any agricultural or outdoor
interests, it will be important to stay up to date on the latest
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions with light winds will continue through the TAF
period. Added a tempo group this morning for the potential for fog
to reduce visibilities. While none has impacted the terminals as
of yet, satellite imagery shows it along the TN River.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The Climate Prediction Center has included areas along and east
of I-65 in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures for
November 11th. Temperatures below 28-32 degrees F are possible
during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH