075
FXUS64 KHUN 060436
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 955 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Sunday due to
   Major HeatRisk, along with afternoon heat indices rising up to
   105-109 degrees in portions of the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Thunderstorms that formed earlier have since dissipated and dry
conditions are ongoing through the Tennessee Valley. CAMs are
performing very poorly as far as initialization goes, however, all
seem to agree on a low chance (10% or less) of showers late
tonight into early Sunday. With the loss of daytime heating, not
anticipating any strong to severe storms. Otherwise, in areas of
clearing, there will be a low chance of patchy fog development.

A cold front should push through sometime Sunday morning as a sfc
low shifts southward into lower GA. This system will bring
increased PoPs south of our area, but we should remain fairly dry
in a post-frontal air mass. The ongoing Heat Advisory remains
valid through 8 PM CT Sunday night. The cold front may prevent
some of the Tennessee Valley from officially reaching Heat
Advisory criteria for the day (105+ heat index temps), however,
there is still a low-medium chance we hit it in several locations
and there will be additional exposure to potential heat illness
over the holiday weekend with many spending time outdoors.
Therefore, continue to remain hydrated and seek shade while
outdoors during the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The short term period will be driven by the upper level ridge as
it shifts slightly westward to begin the work week then quickly
returns eastward, bringing continued above normal temperatures to
the Tennessee Valley. During this time, high temperatures are
forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s (with warmer
temperatures remaining in NW AL) and heat indices up to near 100
degrees. These relatively cooler (than the past week) temperatures
will keep heat products off the table since we will be below
criteria, however, be sure to continue practicing heat safety to
avoid heat illness if spending time outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

As the upper level ridge remains the main influence over the area
through the long term, there will also be another feature to
watch. As an upper level shortwave and subsequent low pressure
system shift eastward north of the Great Lakes, a weak ridge will
develop ahead of this in the northern Appalachian region and bring
subsequent sfc high pressure. In turn, weak CAD will advect into
the eastern portions of the area, which will likely set up a
differential heating boundary by early to mid week and allow low
chances of thunderstorms (30% or less) each afternoon. This will
be dependent on where the sfc high officially sets up. Otherwise,
mostly dry conditions are forecast with continued high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Beyond the long term, the
Climate Prediction Center keeps us in an area for likely above
normal temperatures for the 8-14 day period. Therefore, relief
from this heat is not currently in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both sites with
a low chance (15%) of shower or thunderstorm development at KHSV
over the next 1-2 hours. This has not been added to the official
TAF due to very low confidence in this affecting the terminal.
Otherwise, a low chance of patchy fog exists during the early
morning hours on Sunday. Confidence remains low in this affecting
the terminal.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC