848
FXUS64 KHUN 221132
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
632 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A cold front that moved southward across the area about a day ago
was now stationary, extending from northern Lousiana to SW of
Atlanta to across the Carolinas. Slightly cooler and drier air has
arrived, as weak high pressure over the southern Great Lakes
regions builds to the SE. This has resulted in temperatures
ranging in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and similar dewpoints. Thus
with nearly saturated conditions, some patchy fog was beginning to
form, more likely to impact those normally more prone locations.

Otherwise a very warm day is forecast, with high temperatures in
the mid 80s east to around 90 west, and light NE-E winds. Moisture
seeping northward through the front to our south will pool more
over the SE states for the next several days. Enough of it
returning will bring low/medium (20-60%) chances of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee
Valley, with the highest chances over far NE Alabama, and lower
chances west. This morning, the models overall were showing a
larger coverage of showers in comparison to yesterday.
Thunderstorm intensity should remain "general" with a risk of the
usual gusty outflow winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Friday night into Saturday will be nearly identical to the short
term. Mild conditions will continue as we remain post frontal.
Easterly flow along surface high pressure will again support
afternoon rain and storm chances in NE AL with a low chance of any
strong or severe storms. The interesting portion of the short term
will arrive on Sunday during the day when a true cold front moves
through the TN Valley. The cold front will be the surface
appendage of a much larger trough pushing east through the eastern
CONUS. Locally, the weak front looks to provide enough support
for scattered shower and thunderstorms through the day on Sunday.
The prefrontal moist conditions will allow for modest
instability. This paired with the weak shear present with the
frontal passage may support a few stronger storms with damaging
winds being the main concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

By Sunday night, an upper level trough axis will dig south and east
across the Tennessee Valley. An associated cold front will be pushing
through the forecast area producing a low to medium (20-40%) chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, a cooler and drier airmass
will filter in behind the cold front as it pushes to the south and
east of the local forecast area. This will allow temperatures Sunday
night to dip down into the low to mid 60s.

Cooler and drier conditions will continue heading into next week.
Monday will be the warmest day as afternoon highs top out in the mid
to upper 80s. Then a secondary dry cold front pushes in from north
to south on Tuesday. This will bring in an early taste of fall
weather with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper
level ridging begins to amplify by the middle of next week to our
west and by Thursday it slowly shifts eastward. This will help
moderate temperatures a bit back into the mid 80s and provide some
chances for showers and storms. However, still lots of uncertainty in
the medium range guidance on how far east the upper trough gets
pushed and hence, impacting our rain chances. If it remains
entrenched across the Southeast then our precip chances would
decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions should continue into the early afternoon, as weak
high pressure over the southern Great Lakes builds to the SE. A
return of lower level moisture from the E-SE, along with daytime
heating and resultant instability, will bring isolated to
scattered showers/storms this afternoon. The more prevalent
showers will be more to the east, with lesser rain chances west.
The models to a degree where showing showers forming close to the
KHSV terminal, so kept a VCSH in this afternoon. Later updates
may need change that to TS if greater instability is realized.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB