720
FXUS64 KHUN 140458
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1058 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - A warming trend and dry weather pattern will continue through
   Saturday.

 - A cold front will bring an increase in clouds and some light
   rain to the region on Sunday morning, followed by a brief
   intrusion of cooler/drier air Sunday night.

 - Chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase on
   Tuesday, with a period of heavy rainfall possible on Wednesday.
   Conditions will remain warm for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A dry northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots will persist across the
TN Valley throughout the near term period, as a mid-level ridge
builds northward into the southern Plains and a longwave trough
shifts slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic. At the
surface, a high (initially centered across the Cumberland Plateau
region of Middle TN) will weaken and drift south-southeastward,
providing calm winds tonight and a light SSW return flow tomorrow.
Although a broken coverage of high-level clouds will be possible
at times during the overnight period, conditions will be generally
favorable for the development of mist and fog in our normally
fog-prone locations (especially those adjacent to large bodies of
water) as temperatures fall into the l-m 40s. The combination of
mostly sunny skies and a gradual increase in low- level warm
advection will support highs tomorrow around 3-5 degrees warmer
(compared to today) with values ranging from the m-u 60s in
elevated terrain to the mid 70s in the valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A strong northern stream mid-level trough (initially located
across northern Manitoba) will develop southeastward into New
England and adjacent portions of the Canadian maritime provinces
over the course of the short term period, resulting in an increase
in WNW flow aloft to 40-50 knots across the TN Valley. As a cold
front attached to the system`s surface cyclone sweeps eastward
across the Upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes on
Friday night, a contracting pressure gradient north of a high
centered along the northeastern Gulf Coast will sustain light-
moderate SSW winds, which will veer to SW and strengthen further
during the day on Saturday. Although boundary layer dewpoints will
recover into the l-m 50s as this occurs, no rain is expected,
with overnight lows in the u40s-l50s (a bit cooler in northeast
AL) followed by warm afternoon temps in the m-u 70s (aided by a
WSW low-level jet that will strengthen to 25-35 knots by late
afternoon).

During the period from Saturday night-Sunday night, a lower-
latitude frontal wave is predicted to evolve across the Great
Lakes, with this feature expected to deepen at a steady rate as it
reaches the coast of New England late in the period. The trailing
cold front will cross our region at some point late Sunday
morning, with low clouds and perhaps some pockets of light
rain/drizzle possible both immediately ahead of and behind the
front (with slightly greater chances for light but measurable
rainfall across the eastern half of the CWFA). After mild morning
lows on Sunday in the m-u 50s, a cooler/drier mixture of North
Pacific and Canadian air will be advected southward into the
region Sunday afternoon, with highs in the u60s-l70s followed by
lows Monday morning in the l-m 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Latest extended range forecast data from the global models still
indicates that a compact 500-mb shortwave trough will track
eastward across the central Plains on Monday, in the anticyclonic
flow to the north of an expanding subtropical ridge at lower
latitudes. Although it still appears as if this system will
deamplify Monday night as it encounters increasingly confluent
flow between the ridge to our south and a trough over the
northeastern CONUS, there is still considerably uncertainty
regarding how fast the remnant vorticity lobe will move eastward
across the Mid-Atlantic states and offshore Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Model consensus at this point suggests that the system`s decaying
surface low will shift east-southeastward from the central High
Plains into the Mid-South region by Tuesday morning, before
advancing into the central/southern Appalachians later in the day.
As this occurs, a warm front will lift northward across our
region late Monday morning, perhaps resulting in some shower
activity followed by an increase in southerly low-level flow and
moisture advection Monday afternoon. Depending on the eventual
path of the surface low and position of the warm front, additional
showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon
and into Monday night with CAPE up to 500 J/kg possible across our
portion of the warm sector. However, present indications are that
this axis of rain and weak convection will setup to our northwest
(from to Ozarks into the Upper OH Valley). As a weak trailing
cold front drops southeastward into the region Tuesday, additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible (especially Tuesday
afternoon/evening). With WNW flow of 40-50 knots in the mid-
levels, deep-layer shear would raise concern for organized
convection in the presence of sufficient instability, but CAPE
even during this timeframe appears to be rather low due to
preceding clouds and weak lapse rates. Highs early next week will
remain in the u60s-l70s, with lows in the u40s-l50s.

During the period from Wednesday-Thursday, winds aloft will back
to SW and increase to 45-55 knots as an amplified southern stream
trough tracks eastward from the southwestern deserts into the
southern Plains. In the low-levels, a warm front will lift slowly
northward through the region once again Wednesday in response to
cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains, and this could
potentially focus a swath of heavy rain and some thunderstorms
across our region (but this will depend on the speed and eventual
position of the boundary). As a secondary and stronger surface low
evolves across the southern High Plains on Wednesday
night/Thursday, our region will remain within a moistening warm
sector airmass, with the risk for widespread rain and
thunderstorms displaced to our west and north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation
forecast reasoning. However, with the coverage of Ci on a
decreasing trend and narrowing dewpoint depressions noted at
regional ASOS/AWOS sites, we have included a TEMPO group for MVFR
vsby reductions btwn 9-13Z. Sfc winds will remain calm thru 15Z,
but a lgt SSW flow will resume late Fri morning and continue thru
the end of the TAF period as a ridge of high pressure migrates
south-southeastward to the northeastern Gulf Coast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD