997
FXUS64 KHUN 171706
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The Tennessee Valley sits underneath high pressure today. As a
result, another hot day is forecast as mostly sunny skies will
rise afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Given that
we should exceed convective temps at most locations today, a low
chance of a thunderstorm is possible which would be capable of
producing some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The bigger
concern today is the heat as hot and humid conditions will raise
heat index values into the 100-104F range. Boundary layer mixing
should help keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, therefore
keeping our heat index values below criteria. Regardless, its
going to be hot and it you are spending time outdoors this
afternoon, practice heat safety, take frequent breaks, and stay
hydrated.

Warm and muggy conditions will continue through tonight as
overnight lows only dip into the low to mid 70s. Calm winds and
clear skies will make the formation of fog late tonight possible.
However, expecting it to be contained in our typical fog prone
areas within sheltered valleys and along area bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Not much change in the hot weather pattern as we head into the new
work week. High pressure remains dominant overhead and combined with
synoptic level subsidence dry conditions should prevail.
Unfortunately this will limit the amount of cloud cover, hence
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s both
Monday and Tuesday with heat index values reaching into the triple
digits. Therefore a Heat Advisory has been issued for areas along
and west of I-65 starting 10am Monday and continuing through 8pm
Tuesday. Overnight temps will not provide much relief from the
heat as they only dip into the low to mid 70s. Due to the heat
make sure you stay hydrated and avoid doing strenuous outdoor
activities during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Global models suggest that a broad/weak mid-level trough axis
will drift slowly southeastward from the Mid-MS Valley into the
central Gulf Coast states over the course of the long term period,
as the parent low lifts out to the northeast. This feature will
be accompanied by a subtle surface trough that should provide a
notable increase in coverage of showers/thunderstorms and a
decrease in temperatures through Saturday. At the onset of this
regime, there will likely be a favorable overlap of instability
and storm coverage on Wednesday afternoon/evening, as there are
still indications that a small MCS could evolve early in the day
in the Lower OH Valley vicinity that would spread southeastward
into our region by late afternoon/early evening. Should this
occur, a more widespread wind damage event may unfold, as this
system will enter a hot/unstable environment across the TN Valley.
Beyond Wednesday, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
remain fairly high during the day and at night through the end of
the forecast period, with locally heavy rainfall once again
becoming a concern as PWAT values will surge back above 2". Due to
the increasing coverage of clouds and precipitation, highs will
fall back into the 80s Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with light NW
winds. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm near the terminals
this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-
     096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH