484
FXUS64 KHUN 010603
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
103 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An upper low will slowly make its way off the eastern Atlantic
coast as troughing/northwest flow enforces seasonably cool
temperatures across much of the eastern CONUS. Not expecting much
if any weather impacts overnight as temps fall to the low to mid
60s with light easterly winds and mostly clear skies. Cloud cover
may begin to increase over northeast AL close to daybreak as
moisture begins to increase ahead of a series of shortwaves poised
to ripple along the aforementioned trough. This will bring low to
medium (20-40%) chances for rain and thunderstorms this
afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, some storms could
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The localized
flooding risk will be low given the recent dry pattern, but some
nuisance flooding could occur in areas that experience multiple
thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s west
of I-65 to lower 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The upper level pattern will change little through Wednesday as we
remain under the influence of troughing over the eastern CONUS
while strong ridging holds over the west. This will keep low to
medium chances for storms in the forecast as an additional
shortwave swings through the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing
the risk for localized flooding and a strong storm or two.
Afternoon instability will increase during this timeframe and
enough shear may be present to support a few stronger updrafts,
but the risk for more organized severe weather appears low at this
time. It will be worth keeping an eye on as we close out the
holiday weekend. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler during
this period as well thanks to the added cloud cover, limiting
highs to the upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows will remain in the low to
mid 60s making for quite pleasant evenings across the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The main feature to discuss in the long term will be a cold front
forecast to move into the area from the northwest on Thursday
morning. This front will stem from a low pressure system slowly
pushing eastward through the Great Lakes region, bringing an upper
level trough southeastward into the Ohio River and Tennessee
Valleys. Ahead of the front, on Wednesday into Wednesday night,
low to medium chances of showers/thunderstorms are forecast,
bringing a low chance of some stronger storms. CAPE continues to
look unimpressive, however, ~30-40 kts of shear coupled with
decent low level lapse rates (~7-7.5 C/km) will allow gusty winds
to be a threat in stronger storms. Additionally, PWATs up to
1.5-1.6" will be around the 75th percentile per OHX sounding
climatology and storm motion is forecast to be relatively fast
(around 35-40 mph). Therefore, flash flooding is not a concern at
this time.

After the front moves through on Thursday, dry and relatively cooler
weather is forecast to move in through the weekend into early next
week as sfc high pressure takes over the area from the north. Highs
are forecast to remain in the 80s with overnight lows dropping into
the 50s for most of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The coverage of both low and mid-level clouds will increase over
the course of the valid TAF period, as a shortwave disturbance
will drop southeastward across the central Plains and begin to
interact with a sfc trough lifting slowly northwestward over the
TN Valley. At this point, we will indicate few-sct clouds in the
4-6 kft layer (beneath a bkn layer of As btwn 10-20 kft) thru
early Mon evening, with an increasing coverage of both cloud
layers expected thereafter. As SE flow in the wake of the sfc
trough begins to advect richer moisture northwestward into the
region, a few SHRA/TSRA will be possible invof the terminals
(primarily btwn 20-2Z). Although weak instability will limit both
updraft intensity and the overall coverage of thunderstorms, AWWs
for occasional lightning may be warranted during this timeframe.
Light NE sfc winds will veer to SE by 12-15Z, with prevailing
speeds in the 5-10 kt range.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD