990
FXUS64 KHUN 121705
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Upper level ridging across the Southeast US continues today with
high pressure centered near the Gulf Coast. Another hot and humid
day is in store for the Tennessee Valley as mostly sunny skies
this morning have already warmed temperatures into the lower 80s
with heat index values in the upper 80s to around 90F as of 10am.
By this afternoon, temperatures will top out in the lower 90s
with the heat index peaking between 100-105F. The highest values
will be along and west of I-65. The biggest uncertainty is how
much diurnally driven storms do we see today? NBM PoPs trended
down with a low to medium (20-40%) chance of precip this
afternoon. Morning CAMs paint a mostly dry forecast. However,
would not be surprised to see a few storms initiate across the
terrain in northeast AL and southern middle TN. Some of these
storms could become strong given 1500-2000 J/kg of forecast SBCAPE
with the main hazard being gusty winds. PWs continue to be around
1.75-1.9 inches meaning that storms will be able to produce
locally heavy rainfall.

Storms will gradually diminish after sunset. Skies will clear out
and with light winds fog formation may occur, especially in areas
that see some rainfall this afternoon. Overnight lows drop down
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Heat and humidity continue to build as we head through the second
half of the weekend and into next week. Upper level ridge over the
Southeast amplifies bringing afternoon highs Sunday and Monday up
to the low to mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s this will raise max heat index values between 100-105F. While
this is just below Heat Advisory criteria this is still dangerous
heat. If you are outdoors during the afternoon, please take some
precautions and limit the amount of time exposed in these hot and
humid conditions. Unfortunately there will not be much relief
overnight as temperatures only drop down into the low to mid 70s.

Low to medium (25-45%) chances for diurnally driven thunderstorms
are forecast both Sunday and Monday. Any storm that does form will
once again be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Storms will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Bottom line up front - continued daily chances of showers and storms
as well as very hot conditions, possibly reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, through the next work week.

Upper level ridging will persist over the Southeast through the work
week; however, ripples of shortwaves look to traverse the
Mississippi Valley and east over the Ohio Valley. Additionally,
surface high pressure will dominate over the Appalachians down
through the northeastern Gulf. Thus, the summertime pattern continues
with daily chances of showers and storms (mainly in the afternoon
and evening) as well as hot and humid conditions.

Ample instability in the afternoons along with bulk shear below 20
knots will lead to general thunderstorms/downbursts that are typical
for this time of year. Although, instability values will allow for
the potential for some stronger storms capable of producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Moisture will remain elevated as well
and as such, showers/storms will be efficient rainfall producers. At
least nuisance flooding will be a concern for storms that move over
the same locations repeatedly. Overall, if you have outdoor plans,
remember storm and flood safety - when thunder roars, go indoors!
Turn around, don`t drown if you encounter flooded roads!

As we are in the middle of summer, it`s no surprise that it will
continue to be hot during the afternoons. Highs will mostly top out
in the lower to mid 90s each day, with lows in the lower to mid 70s
for most locations. This, combined with elevated moisture, will lead
to heat indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria each day, with
some spots possibly meeting that criteria. This will be monitored,
since more widespread coverage of showers/storms would potentially
dampen the heat a touch. Regardless if we issue a Heat Advisory or
not, heat safety will remain important for everybody. Make sure to
drink plenty of water, take breaks in the shade, and never leave a
person or pet in a vehicle!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions with light westerly winds are forecast through the
TAF period. Based on where the afternoon Cu field has developed,
have opted to leave mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.
However, if things change amendments will be issued.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...GH