808
FXUS64 KHUN 261555
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1055 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

This morning we remain on the western periphery of high pressure. SW
flow around and along the ridge continues to support a moist tropical
environment that can be seen in our current low stratus deck. Through
the day today the ridge is forecast to continue to amplify and push
west into the SE CONUS. This will aid in eroding our current cloud
deck and supporting temps rising into the low 90s area wide. Being
just outside the center of the ridge will keep us largely out of Heat
Advisory Criteria for one more day with afternoon heat indexes
peaking just over 100. Regardless, heat and sun safety should still
be observed for those partaking in outdoor activities.

Low rain and storms chances will exist this afternoon with coverage
mirror what we have seen the last few days. Storms will die off with
sunset with muggy conditions developing overnight as lows only drop
into the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Through the short term forecast, ridging will continue to build and
anchor itself over the TN Valley. At the surface this will amount to
a significant warming trend in both our temperatures and heat
indexes through mid week. Temps look to rise from the low 90s on
Sunday to the high 90s on Tuesday. These temps couples with dew
points in the mid to high 70s will amount to heat indexes also
increasing steadily through mid week. Values look to increase from
100-105 on Sunday to 105-110+ by Tuesday.

We have rather high confidence in seeing these
values as long range models have been hinting at this pattern for
over a week and probabilities of seeing 100-105+ heat indexes continue
to increase in the LREF and NBM. With that being said, Heat Products
will be needed for a majority of the area through mid week. For this
forecast update, a Heat Advisory has been issued for NW and north
central Alabama along with Lincoln and Moore counties in southern
middle TN from 11 AM to 9 PM tomorrow on Sunday.

While we look to meet Heat Advisory Criteria again through the start
of the week, we will postpone issuing additional products until
tomorrow to allow for more in depth analysis of HIRES model guidance
to aid in differentiating who will see a Heat Advisory and who will
see an Extreme Heat Warning through mid week. Currently NW AL looks
most favorable to see and Extreme Heat Warning. Regardless of the
exact products issued, it will be incredibly important to continue to
practice proper heat and sun safety through the week. We will be in
major heat risk for the entire area through mid week meaning this
level of heat will impact anyone and everyone without proper heating
and hydration and could result in a strain on health care services
and our cooling infrastructure. Make sure to have a plan for you and
your loved ones including pets for dealing with the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the Southeast and
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, then stretch westward over the Plains
by midweek. From Wednesday through Friday, an upper trough over
eastern Canada will dive southeast over the northeastern U.S.,
shifting the greater influence of the ridge over the central CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure looks to persist over the Appalachians
until a surface front traverses the Midwest and Ohio Valley by
Wednesday. This feature is shown to then gradually make its way
south, progressing over the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday.
Thus, very hot conditions (the hottest of the year so far) will
comprise the first half of the long term period, with higher
shower/storm chances and somewhat cooler conditions to follow by late
week.

As moisture remains elevated for the region through the period, this
combined with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s will lead to
very hot conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, it will be the
hottest heat wave we`ve seen so far thus summer, as heat indices are
expected to reach between 105-115 degrees! Yes, it`s summer and it`s
hot during the summer. However, to put it into perspective a little
bit: in Huntsville so far this July there has only been one day with
high temperatures below 90 degrees and 18 days with heat indices at
or above 100 degrees. Yes, it is hot, but Tuesday and Wednesday will
be exceptionally hot. Criteria for an Extreme Heat Warning requires
heat indices at or above 110 degrees or air temperatures greater than
105 degrees. Therefore, as has been the trend the past couple of
days, it`s looking more and more likely that we will meet this
criteria with our forecast heat index values. That being said, heat
products will be necessary in the coming days to account for this.
So, what can you do to be safe in this extreme heat? Make sure to
drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade, wear light-
colored and light-weight clothing, and never leave people or pets in
vehicles!

As we move into the latter half of the week, the aforementioned
upper trough and surface front will bring much needed relief from the
oppressive heat. Highs are expected to "cool" into the upper 80s to
lower 90s by Friday along with increased shower and storm chances
both Thursday and Friday. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated, but any storm that becomes strong will be capable of
producing gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. For
those working outside or have outdoor activities, remember: when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Although there have been no major changes to forecast reasoning
since the aviation update at 6Z, development of a lower stratus
layer has warranted a TEMPO groups for MVFR cigs at both terminals
thru 15Z. Otherwise, it still appears as if the stratus layer
will erode later this morning, with development of a diurnal Cu
field expected to begin as this occurs. Isolated-widely scattered
SHRA/TSRA will likely form early this aftn, but with storms now
predicted to be most concentrated in areas of higher terrain,
uncertainty in storm coverage invof the terminals is too high to
include PROB30 groups attm. Skies will clear early this evening,
with winds becoming lgt/vrbl as well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>008-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...70