079
FXUS64 KHUN 060126
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Medium to high chances (40-80%) of showers and thunderstorms
   return Sunday through early next week.

 - A more summerlike pattern sets up by midweek, with low to
   medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms during the day
   then tapering out in the evening.

 - High temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s
   Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening and
overnight as an area of high pressure remains in control of our
sensible weather. Other than some bands of cirrus passing
overhead, it should be another mostly clear and comfortable night
in this dry air mass. As a result, temperatures will drop into the
lower 60s in most locations by early Saturday morning. The
aforementioned area of high pressure will scoot east of the region
on Saturday as winds increase out of the southeast. This will help
advect some Gulf moisture back into the region and result in a
warmer, more humid day as highs reach the mid/upper 80s to around
90 degrees. A few storms may develop to our south, but other than
some added cloud cover, think subsidence is too strong and that
Saturday will likely be another dry day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A return to a more active pattern will occur early next week as a
trough of low pressure develops over Texas Saturday night into
Sunday and moves across the Mid South and Ohio Valley on Monday,
dragging a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity of the region. This
feature will bring low to medium (30-60%) chances of showers and
thunderstorms (aided by diurnal heating) during the afternoon and
evening hours. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower
70s and PWATs in the 1.8" to 2.1" range, this activity will be
capable of producing locally heavy downpours and potentially a few
instances of minor flooding should slow-moving convection train
over the same area. Bulk shear values aren`t too impressive
pretty weak so would expect this activity to be somewhat
disorganized and pulse-like in nature -- with perhaps a storms or
two becoming locally strong and capable of producing gusty winds.
Otherwise it will be very warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s
and peak heat index values around 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A shortwave will continue its journey to round the Southeast`s ridge
on Tuesday, before shifting the ridge eastward thereafter. This will
help keep low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast Monday night through Tuesday. With the sfc high
centered in the Mid- Atlantic, southerly winds will continue to
advect in warm, moist air into the region through mid week. During
this time, another ridge amplifies up from the Southern Plains
into the Great Lakes, but will be blocked on progressing eastward.
This will provide us with an increase in temperatures (upper 80s
to lower 90s) through the week. With the amount of moisture in
place, there will be diurnally driven convection along with heat
index values in the upper 90s. Yes, it`s June, but these hot and
humid conditions will create elevated Heat Risk values, so ensure
you are staying cool and hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
with light winds out of the SE. A scattered Cu field around 4 kft
will redevelop by late Saturday morning through the afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24