966
FXUS64 KHUN 192352
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
652 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a convergence axis to
our east, which have caused a few showers in northeastern Alabama
this afternoon. As we progress into the evening hours, CAMs
continue to hint at coverage slightly increasing in northeast AL.
Additionally, a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms is
forecast through northwest AL and portions of southern middle TN
ahead of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Rain chances
are forecast to continue through the late evening hours before
dissipating around midnight. Any storm that forms will be capable
of becoming strong, which will bring threats of lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall. Due to lack of wind shear, severe
weather is not forecast. Lingering cloud cover should prevent
widespread fog formation, however, low chances of patchy fog will
be possible throughout areas that receive rainfall today. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Our main feature to watch in the short term will be a cold front
that is forecast to move in on Wednesday evening into Thursday as
an upper level trough shifts eastward into the Tennessee Valley.
Ahead of and along the front, increased chances of
showers/thunderstorms are forecast with some storms having the
potential to be strong- bringing gusty winds and frequent
lightning as a result of continued sufficient environmental
instability. Lack of wind shear will discourage any widespread
severe potential, however, locally damaging winds with any strong
storm cannot be completely ruled out.

Increased heat will continue to be a concern Wednesday, however,
we are currently forecasting most areas to stay below Heat
Advisory criteria. Isolated areas in NW AL and portions of N
Central AL are forecast to reach up to 105-106 heat index,
however, most spots should be in the 99-102 range as cloud cover
and increased rain chances persist over portions of the area.
Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. Despite the lack
of heat product, we continue to urge everyone to stay hydrated,
avoid strenuous outdoor activities, and never leave pets or people
in vehicles.

After the front moves through, we will cool down Thursday and
through the weekend along with continued daily low-medium rain
chances. Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices remaining below 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Remaining in a troughing pattern through the weekend, low to
medium chances of daily rainfall continues. Our main feature to
look forward to (for those of us who are growing tired of the
heat) will be another cold front moving through the area on
Sunday- stemming from a low pressure system set to move into the
Ohio Valley. Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms
are possible along and ahead of the cold front, which will be
capable of becoming strong with threats of gusty winds and
frequent lighting along with heavy rainfall. Behind this cold
front, temperatures are forecast to cool down to highs in the low
to mid 80s (possibly even isolated areas dropping into the upper
70s) with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s through early
next week. These cooler temperatures will be accompanied by dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions (featuring sct Cu and lgt SE-SSW winds) will
continue at the HSV/MSL terminals for much of the upcoming
forecast period. However, isolated SHRA/TSRA have recently
developed across our region, both in the higher terrain of
northeast AL and in the vicinity of a broad low-level confluence
axis extending horizontally across northern portions of MS/AL.
Although convection from HSV eastward will likely dissipate
shortly after 0Z, coverage to the west may actually increase over
the course of the evening, especially if outflow from a couple of
larger storm clusters (currently in progress across eastern
AR/western TN) spreads southeastward and begins to interact with
the confluence axis. At this point, confidence in this scenario is
high enough to include a TEMPO group for convective impacts at
MSL btwn 2-6Z. A greater spatial coverage of showers and storms is
anticipated within the warm sector to the southeast of an
approaching cold front tomorrow, warranting PROB30 groups at both
terminals btwn 18-24Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD