525
FXUS64 KHUN 040320
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Much of the shower and storm activity over northwest Alabama, and
into north-central Alabama, has diminished over the past hour or
so. Low chances (10-20%) of lingering showers will remain for most
of the local area through the overnight, but the main concern
will again be patchy fog. This is especially true for areas that
saw rainfall today (like NW AL). Some fog may become locally
dense, so we`ll monitor observations through the night in case a
Dense Fog Advisory is needed. If you`re traveling later tonight
and/or early Thursday morning, be cautious. Slow down if
visibility is reduced and use low-beam headlights!

A deepening upper trough as well as an approaching surface cold
front will bring low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and
storms on Thursday, with the highest chances over northeast into
north-central Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. In addition,
model guidance indicates instability values between 1700-2200 J/kg
as well as bulk shear near or at 30 knots Thursday afternoon.
Therefore, there is a low chance of strong to severe storms
bringing the potential for gusty to damaging wind gusts, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning. Instability and shear gradually
trend downward through the evening, so the current thinking for
the main time window is between 2-8 PM on Thursday. Check back for
updates as timing may be refined further. Also, make sure to have
multiple ways of receiving warning information, especially if you
have outdoor plans!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday Night through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The aforementioned surface cold front is expected to weaken and
dissipate as it makes its way into north Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee Thursday into Thursday evening. Shower and storm
activity is therefore forecast to wane by mid-evening, with little
to no rain overnight. Additionally, not anticipating cooler
temperatures due to the weakening front, as lows are forecast to
actually be slightly warmer (in the mid to upper 60s) Thursday
night. Patchy fog development may again be a concern Thursday
night as well.

Warm conditions, warmer than we`ve seen recently, will be the
main theme on Friday along with little to no precipitation
chances. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s for most
locations; although, dew points are shown by most guidance to
only reach the lower to mid 60s. Thus, it will not be as muggy as
earlier this summer (like in late July). However, it`s always a
good idea to make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in
the shade if working or playing outside.

By Friday evening, a stronger surface cold front will approach
the local area and quickly move through the region Saturday
evening/night. Additionally, an upper level trough looks to swing
over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through Saturday night.
Therefore, shower and storm chances will increase Friday night
ahead of the surface front, progressing from northwest to
southeast through the day on Saturday. Instability looks to be
fairly modest, but bulk shear values approach or reach 30 knots
early Saturday morning and through the afternoon. Strong to severe
storms are not anticipated at this point, but we`ll need to keep
an eye on this in case these trends change. Shower and storm
chances then dwindle through the evening hours, with cooler low
temperatures forecast in the wake of the front (upper 50s to lower
60s) Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

On Sunday, with sfc high pressure centered in the Northern Plains
and Midwest building in behind the departing upper level trough,
CAA will keep daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s! This is ~10
degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs this time of year.
Overnight lows Sunday night would have all of us in the 50s.

As the trough swings through Quebec and the Northeast, we will be
placed in generally zonal flow on Monday while sfc high pressure
builds across the Midwest, the OH Valley and portions of the
Southeast. The increase in heights will warm us up by a few
degrees on both Monday and Tuesday where we will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s. By Wednesday, the sfc high pressure center will
shift eastward and weaken but the upper ridge will stand strong
and serve as a blocking pattern to the trough along the West
coast. Under the continued influence of high pressure, we will be
back in the 80s on Wednesday and conditions will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions were observed at issuance which will largely
prevail through the evening hours. A low (~20%) chance of patchy
fog is anticipated later tonight, especially over NW AL where
there are ongoing showers and storms. Although MVFR VIS is
forecast for MSL at this point, we`ll need to keep an eye on the
potential for patchy, dense fog leading to lower VIS. Otherwise,
there is a low chance (10-20%) of lingering showers overnight
along with light and variable winds. By Thursday morning, winds
will become southwesterly and increase to around 5-10 knots by the
afternoon. Showers and storms are again forecast Thursday
afternoon (low to medium chances; 20-40%), with the highest
chances over NE AL and into north-central AL. There is also a low
chance that a couple of these storms become strong, with gusty
winds being the main hazard. Lower VIS and CIGs are possible in
the heavier rain/stronger storms as well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26