422
FXUS64 KHUN 242310
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
610 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A QLCS has come together just to our south and west across
central Mississippi. This feature will continue to track ESE into
central Alabama late this afternoon and evening -- with the
severe threat from this line of storms remaining south of the
region. Much of the Tennessee Valley has been worked over from
several hours of showers and storms and for that reason,
instability remains very limited. A glance at observational data
suggests that we are largely capped with only a few hundred Joules
of elevated CAPE available. However, one strong storm is
currently persisting over the Bankhead National Forest and should
linger for another hour or two before weakening as it travels east
of the area. With a front in a vicinity tonight we`ll have to
watch for additional clusters of showers and elevated storms,
especially after Midnight and for this reason have medium (60-70%)
chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Temperatures
won`t budge at all given the dense cloud cover and rain chances
with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Unsettled and at times stormy weather will continue for the start
of the new week. A stationary front now draped from central MS to
southern AL/GA will slowly move northward as a warm front on
Sunday/Monday. Although the boundary should remain south of the
Tennessee Valley through Memorial Day, it`s presence and a high
probability of more passing disturbances and possible convective
complexes, will keep moderate to high chances for more showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center now
has most of the forecast area in a Slight (2/5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms, with a 1/5 Marginal Risk on Monday.

In addition to a severe thunderstorm risk, episodes of moderate
heavy showers could bring more instances of water ponding in low
spots as well as a flash flooding risk. These odds will increase
should any of the area be impacted by locally heavy rainfall.

Thanks to more extensive clouds and elevated rain chances, cool
conditions for the start of the summer vacation season are
forecast. High temperatures both Sunday and Memorial Day will
only rise to around 80, about 5 degrees cooler than seasonable
norms. Lows will be close to norms in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Yet another trough axis arrives Tuesday, with widespread showers
and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain expected. As an upper low
or trough takes shape over the western Great Lakes into the
northern Plains, westerly flow at 5h will be forced to persist
across the southern U.S. This keeps a rather active parade of
shortwaves and thunderstorm chances through the week. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly below normals, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. After a brief lull early this
evening, some clusters of SHRA/TSRA may develop develop along the
front (south of the terminals) and have maintained a VCTS after
06z to account for this. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will develop
Sunday afternoon and have added a PROB30 between 18-00z to
highlight the potential for a TSRA impacting each terminal. AWWs
and amendments may be needed during this timeframe.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP.24