838
FXUS64 KHUN 250002
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
602 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Southerly flow will persist tonight as a low pressure system
advances into the upper Midwest and an attendant cold front moves
southeast through the Ozarks and Red River Valley. Low clouds are
forecast to develop across the Gulf South and advect rapidly
northward into the TN valley late tonight. Dew points will
increase through the 40s east to lower 50s west by morning as
well, so overnight lows may occur sometime during the evening or
middle of the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The cold front will advance southeast into central KY, western TN
to northeast LA by late afternoon. A mild and mostly cloudy day is
anticipated with persist southwest to west flow from low to mid
levels. This flow generates a strong inversion and EML which
should trap the clouds and moisture through the day. A few
showers may just start to enter far northwest AL toward sunset.
The front and showers will reach near a Winchester- Huntsville-
Bankhead NF line by 06Z and exit the I-59 corridor close to 9-11Z.
Forecast soundings are not indicating any substantial CAPE as the
inversion weakens, so have opted to keep thunderstorms out of the
forecast. North winds may gust at 15-25 mph immediately behind
the front Monday night, but should temper down on Tuesday as high
pressure shifts into the mid MS valley. Highs should only reach
the 50s followed by lows in the middle to upper 30s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Wednesday we begin to transition airmasses as zonal flow aloft
begins to shift more to the southwest and moisture increases
across the region. Sfc cyclogenesis will occur east of the Rockies
and will shift east through the southern Plains on Wednesday.
Temperatures will climb into the the low to mid 60s during the day
with increasing cloud cover during the afternoon. High chances
for showers and thunderstorms will move in Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as the sfc low tracks northeast through the area
and a cold front enters the Tennessee Valley. Gradient winds will
begin to increase Wednesday night and will remain elevated until
Friday morning, with gusts up to 30mph possible at times.

Much like the past several days, The ECMWF continues to take the
track of the sfc low more to the north and would result in at
least some threat for strong/severe thunderstorms in addition to
localized flooding. The GFS still favors a more southern sfc low
track which would lower severe storm chances but still pose a risk
for localized flooding. With the varying deterministic solutions,
have focused more on blended guidance at this time range. For now
storm total rain amounts look to range between 0.5-1.3" which
would not pose much risk for flooding, but would like to see
better model consistency before we rule anything out, and that
will come with time.

Rain should come to an end Friday morning, and the coldest
airmass of the season will move into the area for the weekend.
High temperatures will be limited to the 40s on Friday and
Saturday with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. These lows
have trended colder each night over the past few days and could
result in wind chills as low as the upper teens. This will be the
first of several cold days to begin the month of December, so
enjoy the warmer temperatures this week while they last.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals this evening, with
sct high-lvl clouds and a SSE wind of 5-10 kts. If the boundary
layer begins to decouple arnd or shortly after Midnight (and winds
subside), patchy BR/FG may result in a brief period of MVFR vsby
reductions btwn 7-10Z. However, with time, we expect to see fog
transition into a layer of low stratus clouds as low-lvl moisture
advection increases ahead of an approaching cold front, and this
will provide overcast cigs arnd 1500 ft btwn 10-16Z. Muted warming
of the sfc layer and strengthening SW flow in the low- levels
will effectively lift the stratus deck to 2.5-4 kft by 16Z.
Although not explicitly noted in this forecast, a few lgt SHRA or
sprinkles of rain will also be possible btwn 22-0Z (primarily
focused across northwest AL/southern Middle TN).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD