113
FXUS64 KHUN 051018
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
518 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A weak 5h trough axis was slowly shifting southwest through the TN
valley into west GA this morning. A weak low level inverted
trough and convergence zone was also shifting west through AL and
middle TN this morning with a surface ridge axis building in from
the central Appalachians into north GA, east TN and northeast AL.
A cluster of showers has developed in the past couple of hours in
Winston and Walker Counties and are moving westward with the
inverted trough axis. Drier easterly flow will advect PW values
dropping below 1.25 inches this afternoon. However, strong heating
should result in scattered cumulus and isolated SHRA/TSRA again
today as indicated by some of the CAMS, especially west of I-65.
Another hot day is anticipated with highs in the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A series of shortwaves will round the ridge of high pressure in
place, weakening it through the weekend. However, it will still be
able to hold onto keeping us mostly dry and hot through the
holiday weekend. By Monday, we will see the return of diurnally
driven convection (low chances of ~20%) and a cold front will
start to slide southward into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley that
will play a role in our weather mid week.

Highs this weekend into Monday will be in the 89 to 96 degree
range primarily (upper 80s mainly in higher elevations) while
overnight lows will in the upper 60 to lower 70s. With an
increase in moisture during this time, heat index values will
climb back up into the upper 90s to lower 100s. As for this
forecast package, seems like it will remain below Heat Advisory
criteria of 105, however trends will be monitored. Regardless,
heat safety will remain important for everyone. Enjoy your holiday
weekend but continue to practice heat safety by never leaving
people or pets in vehicles, drink water and seek shade.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure will begin to break down just of the Atlantic coast
and begin building more over the Gulf to begin the work week.
This will ultimately result in increasing chances for diurnally
driven showers and storms beginning Monday. A weak frontal
boundary may begin to approach the area as early as Tuesday into
Wednesday, with PoPs increasing to 40-60% mainly focused during
the afternoon and evening hours. Chances will increase closer to
the frontal boundary on Thursday when it appears the front will
push through the TN Valley. Although not currently outlooked for
severe weather, some of these storms could be strong especially
toward the later half of the week. Heat will continue to be a
threat as afternoon heat indices remain between 100 and 105 each
day. Flooding may have to be monitored towards the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Prevailing VFR flight weather conditions are forecast at KMSL and
KHSV. Isolated SHRA or TSRA will develop by 17Z, but the
probability is too low to include at either TAF site.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17