Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
096 FXUS66 KHNX 132308 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 408 PM PDT Tue May 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A disturbance is expected to move through Central California today, with strong winds over the Sierra Nevada crest into the Kern County desert through late tonight. 2. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes and the Kern County Desert through 2 AM PDT tonight, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph expected during that time. 3. Cold air aloft along with mid level moisture may allow for some isolated thunderstorms to develop along the Sierra Nevada crest today, with a 15 to 30 percent chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 4. Another disturbance during this weekend will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada, as well as gusty winds over the Sierra crest and Kern County desert. && .DISCUSSION... Low clouds have formed over the San Joaquin Valley as an upper- level trough of low pressure impacts our region. Cooler than normal temperatures with breezy to locally gusty conditions will occur once again today. A chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms exists for the Sierra today with a 15 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. The best chances for thunderstorms will be towards the Yosemite high country and the Sierra Nevada crest mainly Fresno County northward. However, moisture will be limited with the potential for dry lightning with some storms. A zonal flow will prevail the next few days with temperatures warming back to around seasonal averages until Friday. Another upper-level disturbance passes over our area by Saturday. This will also provide another opportunity for mountain showers with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Gusty winds will also redevelop in the Kern County desert. As of now, the probabilities for gusts at least 45 mph are up to 80 percent toward the Mojave Desert slopes on Saturday. Chances for gusts this strong will continue into Sunday, but will be a bit lower. A ridge of high pressure returns early next week, with above normal highs by next Tuesday. Some uncertainty exists given our recent changing pattern that is typical of spring, as well as the history of strong ridges of high pressure not lasting over our area for longer than a couple of days at a time so far this spring. Eventually, the ridge pattern will develop over us and persist longer. && .AVIATION... 00Z Update: MVFR conditions with local IFR due to mountain obscurations with showers and thunderstorms (30%-40% chance) over the Sierra Nevada through 06Z Wednesday. Westerly winds with gusts to 40-45 kts are expected in the Kern County desert until 09Z Wednesday. VFR conditions will otherwise continue for the next 24 hours in Central California. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339. && $$ BSO/Molina weather.gov/hanford