Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
438 FXUS66 KHNX 141646 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 946 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seasonably warm temperatures with dry conditions prevail until Friday. 2. A cooldown occurs this weekend, with gusty winds over the mountain ridges and peaks, as well as the Kern County desert. 3. A 10-20 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms exists for both Saturday and Sunday. 4. Another warmup is expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite loops show mainly clear skies over our portion of Central California, except for a few low clouds over the Kern County mountains that are gradually diminishing. Expect a sunny day with warmer, though seasonal, temperatures today. Some additional warming will occur on Thursday and Friday, with highs slightly above seasonal averages. Dry conditions will prevail until then. Cooler temperatures with increased winds return this weekend. The probability will be high, or at least 90 percent, for a 55 mph gust along the Mojave Desert slopes on both Saturday and Sunday, with Saturday`s chances a little higher than Sunday`s. The desert floor can expect the best chances for similar gusts towards Ridgecrest and the Indian Wells Valley. Showers and a slight (10-20 percent) chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will accompany this cooldown on both Saturday and Sunday. A drying and warming trend returns for next week, as daytime highs exceed 90 degrees in the warmest areas by Tuesday. The probability for a 90 degree reading on Tuesday is about 55-75 percent for the SJ Valley and the desert portions of eastern Kern County. Even higher chances are in store for next Wednesday for these areas, but a return of triple digit heat remains unlikely (or up to a 10 percent chance) for now. Remember to practice cold water safety during this snow melt season, as waterways are running cold and fast! Above average temperatures continue until at least the middle of next week, although uncertainty exists regarding how long this pattern will last and how warm we end up. It appears we will keep warming a bit after next Wednesday, and the chances for above average temperatures are around 50 percent, per the Climate Prediction Center for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours in Central California. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/SM weather.gov/hanford