Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
133 FXUS66 KHNX 070912 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 212 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seasonable temperatures with dry conditions are expected through much of the upcoming week. There is a 50 to 60 percent probability to exceed 90 degrees today in the San Joaquin Valley. 2. A low pressure system will bring chances for precipitation to the area Friday and Saturday. There is a 20 to 30 percent probability for measurable rainfall in the desert and valley areas and a 30 to 40 percent probability for the central Sierra. 3. Cooler air with the system brings a 15 to 25 percent probability for 1 inch or more of snow Friday into Saturday mainly for elevations above 10000 feet. 4. Maximum wind gusts along the crests of the Sierra have a 40 to 50 percent probability to exceed 40 mph Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... A slight warmup is anticipated today as a low pressure system sits off the central California coast, causing warmer air to encroach on our region from the southwest. There is a 50 to 60 percent probability for temepratures to exceed 90 degrees this afternoon in the San Joaquin Valley, with these temperatures around five degrees warmer than season averages. More seasonable conditions are expected for Wednesday as the this system weakens and tracks into the Great Basin. However, as Thursday approaches, cluster analysis indicates a robust low pressure system will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest region from the Gulf of Alaska, causing stronger winds to propagate across central California. As stated in last nights discussion, tropical moisture associated with current Hurricane Priscilla will be pushing northward into the weekend, however the aforementioned low pressure system is anticipated to redirect the moisture into the Desert Southwest region, with minimal moisture making it to central California. This being said, there remains a 20 to 30 percent probability for measurable rainfall in the Mojave Desert Friday into Saturday. A combination of moisture from both systems also has a 20 to 30 percent probability for measurable rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley and 30 to 40 percent for the central Sierra. With cooler air assoicated with the northerly system, there is a 15 to 25 percent probability for an inch or more of snowfall in the central Sierra, mainly above 10000 feet. Cooler air will also entrain across the San Joaquin Valley, with afternoon highs in the low 70s, around ten degrees below season averages. While this system approaches in the mid to late week period, stronger winds will move over the Sierra crests, with a 40 to 50 percent probability to exceed 40 mph on Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through 00Z Wednesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford