Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
985 FXUS66 KHNX 211745 AAA AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Hanford CA 945 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Key Messages and Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week as high pressure off the coast moves inland this weekend. 2. There is a high probability for a warming trend across the region this weekend with above average temperatures continuing through next week. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating an 70 to 80 percent chance for above normal temperatures in the 6 to 10 day period and a 40 to 50 percent chance for above normal temperatures in the 8 to 14 day period. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite loops show mainly clear skies prevailing across the central California interior tonight. There were some low clouds along the Sierra foothills in Tulare and Kern Counties Thursday evening and Tehachapi was reporting one quarter mile visibility in fog for a couple of hours. But the clouds and fog have now cleared out and visibility in Tehachapi is back up to 10 miles. Latest HREF guidance is showing 50 to 80 percent probabilities for visibility less than one quarter mile in dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley through this morning. The highest probs are focused over Kings and Tulare Counties. Probabilities drop to 20 to 50 percent on Friday night into Saturday morning. An upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will build inland this weekend providing dry conditions and warming temperatures. The probability for a high temperature greater than 70 degrees this afternoon is 20 percent in Fresno and 70 percent in Bakersfield. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be around 3 to 6 degrees above climatological averages, which is generally in the middle 60s across the SJ Valley this time of the year. Further warming will push highs to 6 to 9 degrees above average on Saturday and then 8 to 12 degrees above average on Sunday and Monday. Chance for a maximum temperature greater than 75 degrees on Monday is 30 percent in Fresno and 75 percent in Bakersfield. An upper trough is expected to move over the Pacific Northwest on Monday night causing temperatures to nudge down a few degrees Tuesday. But highs are still forecast to be around 5 to 8 degrees above average. The upper ridge then amplifies over the west coast on Wednesday and temperatures climb back to 8 to 12 degrees above average for Wednesday and Thursday. Model ensembles and cluster analysis show a closed upper low just off the California coast next Thursday that could bring precipitation by the end of next week. && .AVIATION...18Z: In the San Joaquin valley, areas of MVFR visibility in mist and haze until 22Z Fri with local IFR in mist thru 20Z Fri. After 22Z Fri, VFR conditions will prevail thru 18Z Sat. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail thru 18Z Sat. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Friday February 21 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public...DCH aviation...DAS weather.gov/hanford