Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
405 FXUS66 KHNX 101058 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 358 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .UPDATE... This is a correction of the AFD. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cooling Trend continues through weekend into next week. Tuesday is coolest day of the week. 2. Tropical moisture from the south will result in a 5 to 10 percent probability for thunderstorms in the Kern Desert Friday. 3. Maximum wind gusts along the crests of the Sierra have a 40 to 80 percent probability to exceed 40 mph Friday. 4. Potential for a deeper system to develop into next week, with widespread 25 to 65 percent probabilities for half an inch or more of precipitation in the Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. 5. 50 to 80 percent chance of a foot or more of snow above 6,500 feet in 72 hours between 5 pm Monday and 5 pm Thursday. 6. There is a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the Sierra Nevada foothills and in the Valley from Fresno County northward on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... We currently have a trough spinning off the coast of Oregon and California. This trough is helping draw moisture from the remnants of Priscilla into the Desert areas. However, most of it is remaining east of Kern County but there is still a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms today for the Kern Desert. As the trough makes its way inland today into tomorrow it will bring cooler air into the area helping bring us down. However, the big story is once this first trough moves off is a much larger trough which will retrograde and slide down the Pacific Coast early next week. This second trough brings much colder air that snow levels will drop to 6,500 to 7,000 feet. This trough also will help bring a 60 to 70 percent chance of a water vapor transport of at least 150 kg/(m*s) into the area. Latest model ensembles show a 50 to 80 percent chance of a foot of snow between Monday evening and Thursday afternoon above 6,500 feet due to the high moisture amounts. Down in the Valley, we are looking at a 25 to 65 percent chance of half an inch or more both on Tuesday and Wednesday. Portions of the Valley and West Side Hills are under a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Saturday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford