Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
049 FXUS66 KHNX 031816 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1116 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near average temperatures are expected across much of the region today. There is a 10 to 25 percent chance to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley today and Saturday. 2. Increased fire risk this weekend with widespread minimum relative humidity between 15 and 25 percent for the non-desert areas. Min RH expected less than 10 percent in the Mojave Desert with gusty winds in the afternoon to evening. 3. Slight cooling trend early next week before returning above triple digits. 10 to 20 percent chance for highs of at least 105 degrees in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley next Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... The ridge that has been present the past few days that brought us back to our seasonal temperatures and spots of triple digits has slowly weakened today. This has led the probabilities of triple digits for today to drop 5 percent from yesterday to be at 10 to 25 percent for the area. We also can see higher winds today as a trough begins to move in across the Northwest today through Monday. Slightly below average temperatures return on Monday on this trough before returning to normal on Tuesday. Triple digit chances return on Wednesday and remain in the 50 to 90 percent range for much of the Valley for the remainder of the week. However, Merced and locations north of Fresno have lower chances due to the influence of the winds from Pacheco Pass. The latest probabilistic model runs have a 15 percent chance or less of highs of at least 105 on Wednesday and Thursday as compared to a 15 to 40 percent chance from a few days ago. This in combination with lower deterministic high temperatures and low temperatures has lowered the confidence of issuing a heat product at the moment for later this week. In the Kern County Desert and Slopes regions, the strong winds every evening and low humidities at or below 10 percent will persist for the next several days keeping a low but still increased fire risk. In the San Joaquin Valley, the humidities will stay in the 15 to 25 percent range but the gustier winds today slightly increases the fire risk. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation.....JPK idss/pio............EW weather.gov/hanford