Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
742 FXUS66 KHNX 061150 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 450 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Minor Heat Risk across the lower elevations of central California over the weekend and into next week. 2. Increased fire risk through the weekend, particularly Saturday with low relative humidity and moderate winds. 3. Strong winds expected for the Mojave Desert Slopes, the Kern River Valley and around the San Luis Reservoir from tonight into Sunday morning. 4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Stagnant air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere created a region of subsidence over California today which led to warmer conditions with above-average high temperatures across much of the central portion of the state. Much of the lower elevations including the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert reached into the upper 90s with localized areas reaching triple- digits. A cooling trend is expected to set up for the weekend and into early next week as a low pressure trough tracks through the Pacific Northwest, with its axis extending south through California. The energy associated with the trough will strengthen wind gusts across the region on Saturday, especially in lee side of area mountain ranges and in areas with steep elevation changes. As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes in the lee of the Tehachapi Range and Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for Lake Isabella and San Luis Reservoir, all valid until late Saturday evening. These winds are expected largely from the northwest, driving a cooling trend across central California which will cause afternoon temperatures to return near season averages: highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s for the San Joaquin Valley. However, due to the incoming air originating from drier regions, relative humidity values across the San Joaquin Valley will remain below 20 percent, and less than 15 percent across the Mojave Desert. This will continue concerns for grass fires when paired with the stronger winds across the region. Stagnant air will return to the area midweek as the multi-day troughing pattern shifts further eastward. This will cause a warming trend to set up again towards the late week, with a 60 to 70 percent probability for highs to exceed 95 degrees for the San Joaquin Valley both Friday and Saturday. Ensemble cluster analysis shows growing confidence for a high pressure ridge to build in over the western United States next weekend into the following week, which will raise temepratures further across the area. Guidance from the National Blend of Models highlights a 50 to 60 percent probability for highs to exceed 100 degrees across much of the lower elevations beginning next Sunday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ300-301. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ332. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy/CM weather.gov/hanford