028
FXUS66 KHNX 110856
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
156 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooling Trend continues through weekend into next week.
Tuesday is coolest day of the week.

2. Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM Saturday through 5 AM
Sunday. 50 to 90 percent chance of 45 mph max gusts in the
Mojave Slopes and Desert on Saturday.

3. Large trough bringing in a lot of moisture to the area. There
is a 25 to 65 percent chance of at least an inch of rain in the
Valley in 24 hours ending at 5 pm Tuesday.

4. Winter Storm Watch in effect from 11 AM Monday through 5 PM
Wednesday.

5. 70 to 95 percent chance of a foot or more of snow above
6,500 feet in 72 hours between 5 am Monday and 5 am Thursday.

6. There is a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall along the Sierra Nevada foothills and for most of the
Valley on Tuesday due to the heavy rain expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have a trough sliding across the California-Oregon border
which will help bring cooler temperatures through the weekend
along with an increase in wind gusts today due to the tight
pressure gradient. Wind speeds especially pick up in the late
morning and will remain gusty well into Sunday morning for the
Mojave Slopes and Desert due to the direction of the upper level
flow. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM this morning
through 5 AM Sunday.

The big story is the next trough which slides down the
California coast Monday as it brings even more cooler
temperatures which will lower the snow level. In addition, the
setup will allow for Integrated Water Vapor Transport values of
at least 150 kg/(m*s) to be advected into the area as models
show a 80 to 95 percent chance of values that high moving in.
Latest probabilities have a 70 to 95 percent chance of at least
a foot or more of snow above 6,500 feet between Monday morning
and Thursday morning. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from 11
AM Monday through 5 PM Wednesday.

However, we have a 25 to 65 percent chance of at least an inch
of rain in the Valley in 24 hours ending at 5 pm Tuesday. This
has led the WPC to put much of the Valley, the Sierra foothills,
and West Side Hills under a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday. The biggest concern with this
heavy rain is any debris flows from heavier amounts of rain over
the burn scars.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
CAZ337>339.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for CAZ323-326>331.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford