Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
539 FXUS66 KHNX 231133 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 333 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions will prevail through at least midweek as a ridge of high pressure dominates. 2. There is a high probability for much above normal maximum temperatures this week. A few record highs may be broken. 3. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating a 70 to 80 percent chance for above normal temepratures in the 6 to 10 day period and a 33 to 50 percent chance in the 8 to 14 day period. 4. There is a low to moderate probability (25 to 50 percent) for measureable rainfall late week as a disturbance approaches the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite loops show mainly clear skies prevailing across the central California interior tonight. Extensive cloud cover is noted across northern California with the southern extent down to around Madera County. Latest HREF guidance is showing a low probability for visibility less than one quarter mile in dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley through this morning. Chances are north of Kern County along the Highway 99 corridor with the highest probabilities at 30 percent from Kingsburg to Traver to Goshen and west to around Hanford. Probabilities lower to only 20 percent Sunday night into Monday morning with just isolated patches indicated. An upper ridge over the region will maintain dry conditions and bring further warming today into Monday. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be around 8 to 12 degrees above climatological averages for this time of the year, which is generally in the middle 60s across the San Joaquin Valley in late February. The probability for a high temperature greater than 75 degrees this afternoon is 20 percent for Merced, 35 percent for Fresno and Visalia, 65 percent for Hanford, and 80 percent for Bakersfield. Similar probabilities are indicated for Monday. An upper trough is expected to move over the Pacific Northwest on Monday night causing some brief cooling. But highs are still forecast to be around 3 to 7 degrees above average on Tuesday. The upper ridge then amplifies over the west coast on Wednesday and temperatures climb back to 8 to 12 degrees above average for Wednesday and Thursday. Model ensembles and cluster analysis continue to show a closed upper low approaching the central coast late week and then moving over southern California Friday into Saturday with a chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across interior central California for the next 24 hours. Only a 30 percent probability for MVFR visibility in haze/mist around KVIS from 12Z-16Z this morning. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Sunday February 23 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford