427
FXUS66 KHNX 240129
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
148 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A strong winter storm system will continue to impact Central
California through this weekend with showers tonight and
Sunday.

2. Another winter storm system will bring an additional round
of precipitation to the area on Monday and Tuesday. Portions of
the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see
moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy
snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada.

3. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Tuesday. Total snowfall
accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet
at the higher elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles
per hour. The probability of receiving another 24 inches of
snow by 4 PM Tuesday is 90% for Tuolumne Meadows and 95% for
Tioga Pass.

4. The probability of receiving at least one inch of rain by
Tuesday evening is 85% for Merced, 90% in Fresno, 80% in
Visalia, and 50% in Bakersfield.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large upper low off the PAC NW coast continues
to pull pacific moisture into central California. The
atmospheric river which brought heavy rainfall to much of
northern California between Wednesday and Friday weakened by
the time it reached our area on Friday evening. Rainfall totals
across our area were nowhere near the amounts received in
northern California, but the higher Sierra Nevada and adjacent
foothills north of Fresno COunty generally picked up between
0.75 and 1.5 inches of liquid precipitation with up to near 2
inches at some stations near Yosemite Park. Much of the San
Joaquin Valley from Fresno northward picked up between 0.5 and
0.75 inches of rainfall while amounts were lower further
southward with many stations in Kings and Tulare County picking
up between a tenth of an inch and half an inch of rainfall
while much of Kern County only picked up a tenth of an inch or
less. Satellite imagery is showing a very impressive 120+ KT
250 mb jet stream out of the southwest pushing across our area
and radar imagery is showing some light upslope precipitation
continuing in the mountains.

The ensembles continue their good run to run consistency at
maintaining the strong upper low off the PAC NW coast through
Monday then move the this feature eastward across the PAC NW on
Tuesday. The NBM has been trending stronger with a system being
pulled up by the large trough moving through central CA on
Monday and Tuesday bringing another round of moderate to heavy
precipitation to our area.

Probability for 0.50 inches for selected cities on Monday:

Mariposa 85%
Oakhurst 80%
Merced: 65%
Madera: 75%
Fresno: 75%
Visalia: 60%
Coalinga: 60%
Lemoore: 55%
Hanford: 60%
Porterville: 60%
Bakersfield: 45%

Probability for 0.50 inches for selected cities on Tuesday:

Mariposa 96%
Oakhurst 96%
Merced: 80%
Madera: 75%
Fresno: 90%
Visalia: 75%
Coalinga: 65%
Lemoore: 70%
Hanford: 75%
Porterville: 75%
Bakersfield: 55%

This system will bring another round of snow to the SIerra
Nevada although snow levels have been trending upward with it
as well. Snow levels are expected to be around 6000 feet in
Yosemite Park and near 8000 feet along the Tulare/Kern County
border on Monday afternoon rising by 1000 to 1500 feet by
Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada above 6500 feet through 400 pm PST Tuesday.

Slightly cooler and showery weather will prevail on Wednesday as
this system moves to the east of our area. High pressure is
progged to nudge into CA by Thanksgiving Day which will bring a
drying trend to our area before a weak southern stream system
undercuts the ridge and brings a chance of some light
precipitation into our area by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread mountain obscuring IFR conditions in
precipitation and low clouds across the Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi Mountains. Areas of MVFR conditions in low clouds and
precipitation across the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra
foothills. VFR conditions will prevail across the Kern County
Desert.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Sunday November 24 2024,
Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in
Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern
(Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-326>331.

&&

$$

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