Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
043 FXUS66 KHNX 261647 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 947 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Windy conditions are expected across the Mojave Desert until early Sunday morning with a High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes. 2. Temperatures will be much cooler than climatological average this weekend then trending warmer next week. 2. Winter-like weather today, or valley rain and mountain snow, will be observed. 3. A slight chance (15%) for thunderstorms today, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite loops show the upper-level low along the coast near Pt Conception. At this time, this feature is bringing showers to our southern areas, including in the valley and West Side hills, as well as Southern CA. These showers are spreading northward and are approaching Fresno. This is a cold system for this time of year, with snow levels expected around 5,000 feet. It will also produce unstable conditions, sufficient for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. In addition, gusty winds will develop this afternoon and continue until late tonight/early Sat AM. Showers will continue overnight into Sunday morning, though mainly over the higher terrain. Amounts will generally be light over most of the region, based on latest best/worst case scenario amounts (or anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to just above 0.25 inch in the SJ Valley). Also, amounts in the Sierra Nevada will range from 0.50 inch to over 1.00 inch in the highest elevations, with several inches of snow up to a foot; however, in the worst case scenario, amounts could exceed 1.50 inches (about a 10 percent chance). By Sunday morning, some low clouds will linger above the Central Valley, though the favored areas are towards the southern and eastern sides due to northwest flow aloft. Cooler than normal temperatures will last through at least Sunday, before a ridge of high pressure moves in and builds. Expect temperatures closer to seasonal averages on Monday and back to above normal by Tuesday. Well above average temperatures are in store for Wednesday until Friday before temperatures lower back towards normal by next weekend. Another trough of low pressure will bring a chance for some precipitation to mainly the mountains next Saturday, although it doesn`t appear quite as cold as the current one. More to follow, as we get closer. Current 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, overall favor above normal temperatures but near to above average precipitation. However, it appears periods with cooler or seasonal temperatures combined with precipitation will be relatively brief, as both of these periods cover the early part of May. && .AVIATION...18Z Update: In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, areas of MVFR and local IFR in low clouds and showers thru 12Z Sun. A 15 percent chance for thunderstorms exists from 19Z Sat to 03Z Sun. Across the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, widespread mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds, rain and snow thru 18Z Sun. A 15 percent chance of thunderstorms exists from 19Z Sat to 03Z Sun. Across the Kern County portion of the Mojave Desert, expect wind gusts greater than 50 kts along the Mojave Desert Slopes. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central CA interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339. High Wind Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ323- 325>331-333>336. && $$ BSO/JPK weather.gov/hanford