Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
066 FXUS66 KHNX 052337 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 940 AM PST Wed Feb 5 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Next system will usher in more precipitation Thursday into Friday, with valley rain and mountain snow. 2. Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 6500 feet in the Sierra Nevada with accumulations of one to two feet of new snow. 3. Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The western states remain under the influence of a broad trough off the west coast of Canada. A shortwave moving across the central Pacific today should keep the broader trough at bay, keeping zonal flow in place today. Minus a bit of light rain over the South Valley and Kern County Mountains this morning things will dry out today into tomorrow morning. Early tomorrow the shortwave will get phased into the broader trough allow it to dig further south. This trough will bring much colder air with it than the previous, so lower snow levels will be likely Thursday and Friday. However, snow levels will transition higher on Thursday after as the energy from the aforementioned shortwave and its associate more tropical moisture moves onshore. Snow levels will then drop early Friday with the frontal passage. The path of the moisture coming onshore will result in a fair amount of rain shadowing on the west side but most of the Valley should see a few hundredths of precipitation, with closer to a quarter to half inch possible further east. Upslope precipitation amounts will likely double or quadruple those values, with the most likely scenario being foothill communities receiving around 1.5" in the North to 1" in the South. Snow can`t be ruled out for our foothill communities though the likely scenario is it will be all liquid precipitation. For the high terrain, snow will be the precipitation type with accumulations up to three feet, with many locations likely to see up to a foot. For the desert locations, a few hundredth of an inch is the most likely scenario, with increasing winds on Friday as the system exits the region. However, not expecting significant winds over the mountains though the usual areas will see elevated winds. After this system exits, the whole region will see a return to much cooler temperatures and drier conditions through early next week. Midweek models solutions are diverging on how much influence the Pacific Ridge will have on the West Coast which will influence how additional storms move in. && .AVIATION... In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR conditions are present along the eastern valley into the Sierra Foothills due to low level cloud cover; these conditions will gradually decrease through the remainder of the afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected to move into the other portions of the valley near 09Z-10Z Thursday with areas of light haze and mist developing. VFR conditions are likely to return for the southern San Joaquin Valley by 18Z, but with MVFR continuing in the northern valley due to scattered showers and ceilings 3,000-5,000 feet. These conditions will spread to the southern valley areas between 20Z Thursday and 00Z Friday. In the Sierra Nevada, VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Thursday. Cloud cover will gradually move in through the remainder of the day, with mountain-obscuring cloud cover by 00Z Friday. Rain showers are anticipated after 12Z, with snow showers above 5,000 feet; snow levels rising through the day to 8,000 feet by 00Z Friday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 02/04/2025 14:18 EXPIRES: 02/05/2025 23:59 On Wednesday February 5 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM Friday for CAZ323-326>328-330. && $$