Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
376 FXUS66 KHNX 040509 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1009 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit high temperatures are expected again today in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert. A cooling trend is indicated in the latest model guidance by Friday and next weekend. 2. Dryness is expected to continue through the next week with steady minimum RH`s in the 15 to 25 percent range in the Central Valley and in the single digits for the Kern County desert. Light winds will keep fire risk low. 3. Temperatures will warm back up Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Expect one more hot day in the Central Valley for today before a noticeable, but brief cooldown occurs on Independence Day and Saturday. Some locations are projected to reach below average, though generally in areas outside of eastern Kern County. This is due to an upper-level trough over Northern CA and the Pacific NW along with a zonal flow setting up over Central CA. Breezy conditions with locally gusty winds along the West Side Hills and Kern County desert, including along the slopes, will occur today and Independence Day. Gusts may locally reach advisory criteria (45 mph or stronger) along the Mojave Desert slopes this evening and again on Independence Day, although it appears marginal, based on latest high resolution guidance. Otherwise, hot temepratures will persist in parts of the Kern County desert even through the holiday weekend, such as the Indian Wells Valley, as there is some probability of triple digit heat over the next several days (it`s still at least 60-90 percent for the Indian Wells Valley on Independence Day and Saturday. However, chances are much lower, or about 15-30 percent for the remaining portions of the desert floor for these two days). Warming returns beginning Sunday and will continue into next week, as high pressure rebuilds over our forecast area. Probabilities of triple digits return to the SJ Valley by Monday (mostly 20-30 percent, except around 30-50 percent for Kern County) and will increase by the middle of next week. Overall, it will become a more typical pattern for July. The Climate Prediction Center shows above average temperatures for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks (about 40-50 percent chance), with a moderate risk of hazardous temperatures over the Central Valley for late next week. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BSO aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford