Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
692 FXUS66 KHNX 221029 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 229 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures will warm to around 5 to 10 degrees above climatological normals today. 2. A strong winter storm system is forecast to impact Central California Friday night through this weekend. Portions of the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada. 3. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Sierra Nevada above 6,500 feet valid from 4 PM Friday through 4 PM Tuesday. Accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at the high elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour. The probability of receiving 24 inches of snow by 10 PM Saturday is 42% for Tuolumne Meadows and 43% for Tioga Pass. 4. The probability of receiving between one half and one (0.5-1.0) inch of rain by 4 PM Saturday is 90% for Merced decreasing towards the south to 70% in Fresno, 55% in Visalia, and 15% in Bakersfield. && .DISCUSSION... Today will be the last day of calm weather and above normal temperatures before the first strong winter storm of the season begins to impact Central California. The ridge currently over the southwest will give way to the low pressure system that is spinning over the Pacific Ocean off the northwest coast of the CONUS. Precipitation is expected to begin this afternoon around 4 PM. That is also when the Winter Storm Warning that was issued recently will go into effect for the Sierra Nevada. Moderate to heavy snow can be expected for elevations above 6,500 feet, with total accumulations of 10 inches to 2 feet of snow, and up to 4 feet for the highest elevation peaks. The heaviest snowfall is expected to be late Friday evening into Saturday morning, and will continue until Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations are expected to slow down Sunday, but then ramp up slightly through Tuesday. Strong winds can also be expected with the system as it crosses the region, with gusts up to 50 mph forecast for the Sierra Nevada. The Winter Storm Warning will be in effect until 4 PM Tuesday. The San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills can expect to see moderate to heavy rainfall at times with this system this evening through Saturday, with the Foothills north of Oakhurst likely seeing 2 inches of rainfall or more Saturday. Current probabilities for that amount of rain in the Foothills are 45% near Oakhurst and 75-85% in the Foothills portion of Mariposa County further to the north. Similar to the Sierra Nevada mountains, there is a somewhat clear break in the rain for the Foothills on Sunday before to ramps up again Monday through Wednesday, with probabilities of 1 inch of rain or more in Mariposa County being 30-35% on Sunday and 50-60% on Tuesday. The San Joaquin Valley can also expected moderate rainfall on Saturday, with current probabilities for select locations and rain fall amounts below: Probability for 0.75 inches on Saturday: Merced: 85% Madera: 80% Fresno: 70% Probability for 0.5 inches on Saturday: Visalia: 60% Coalinga: 55% Hanford:55% Lemoore: 50% Porterville: 50% Tulare: 45% Bakersfield: 15% The first wave of precipitation for the Valley will be on Saturday into Sunday, and the second wave from Monday through Wednesday, similar to the Sierra Nevada mountains and foothills. Calm weather can be expected to return by Thursday, on the Thanksgiving holiday, with long range models indicating it may stay calm through the first few day of December. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior until 06Z, when a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions begin, along with mountain obscuring IFR conditions. This is expected to continue through at least 12Z tomorrow. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 11/21/2024 14:42 EXPIRES: 11/22/2024 23:59 On Friday November 22 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-326>331. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather........EW DSS/PIO.............................CM weather.gov/hanford