106
FXUS66 KHNX 061355
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
655 APM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Below average temperatures continue for central California
through the weekend before a warming trend next week.

2. Moisture over southern California brings a 50 to 60 percent
probability of precipitation for the Kern County Desert Sunday.

3. Strong winds expected over the Sierra Nevada crest Saturday
and Sunday.

4. Medium probability (40 to 50 percent) for Moderate Heat Risk
in the San Joaquin Valley Thursday.

5. Additional chances Wednesday for rainfall in the Sierra
Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cut-off low sitting over the Pacific Northwest is expected
to weaken over the next day or so, resulting in a slow warming
trend through early next week as 500mb heights rise slightly
over Central California. At the same time, moister being pulled
in from Tropical System Marie will lead to precipitation for
Southern California and into the southeastern corner of Kern
County tomorrow. Current chances for rainfall in our portion of
the Mojave Desert is about 50-60%, with about a tenth of an inch
of rainfall expected during that time.

As we move further into next week, the remmants of Tropical
System Marie are expected to form another area of low pressure
cut off from the pattern further north and move farther west
into the Pacific, dragging a ridge in the same direction. This
new ridge will lead to a continuation of the warming trend
starting Monday and push highs across the region 5 to 10
degrees above normal by Thursday. This day will also see
Moderate Heat Risk for much of the Valley and Desert due to
these increased temperatures. As this transition is occuring,
additional moisture from Marie may make its may into Central
California and produce a small amount of precipitation along the
Sierra Nevada and into the foothills from Tuesday into
Thursday, with a 20-40% chance of a quarter of an inch of
rainfall or more mainly in Fresno and Tulare Counties from
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.

Later next week into next weekend, the cut-off low off the coast
is expected to rejoin the larger pattern as a proper trough and
push the ridge that set up over Central California east,
resulting in lowering 500mb heights and causing a cooling trend
from this coming Friday into the upcoming weekend. This trough
over the Pacific Northwest may hold its position through the
week after next, with the Climate Prediction Center holding near
normal Temperatures for that region and Central California in
the leaning above normal category for both the 6 to 10 and 8 to
14 day outlooks. Our area is also in the leaning above normal
for precipitation for both outlooks due to this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A 20-50 percent
chance of showers across the Kern County Desert through 06Z Monday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

EW/CM

weather.gov/hanford