Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
843 FXUS66 KHNX 160600 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures will remain near season averages through next week. 2. Breezy conditions over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through next week. && .DISCUSSION... A calmer pattern has set up over California for this weekend as the region is caught between two contrasting air masses. A high pressure ridge is currently centered over the southern United States with a low pressure system located in the Eastern Pacific. Weak flow aloft in this transition zone between the systems is bringing about cooler temperatures relative to the previous few weeks, but which are near season averages for this time of year. Gradually into the early week period, the area of high pressure is poised to overpower the low, building over the Desert Southwest and Central and Southern California. The high will remain in place through the remainder of next week, resulting in a slight warming trend. Each day through Tuesday, ensemble guidance from the National Blend of Models expresses less than a 25 percent probability for afternoon highs to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, however these probabilities rise to 40 to 50 percent on Wednesday and Thursday. Near 100-degree heat is expected for the lower elevations in the afternoons, but seasonable minimums will also occur, leading to widespread Minor Heat Risk except for the foothill areas where the thermal belt is typically at its strongest. In the San Joaquin Valley, there is less than a 10 percent probability for lows to exceed 70 degrees through the week outside of the larger urban areas such as Fresno and Bakersfield; each of these locations has a 55 to 65 percent probability to exceed 70 degrees each day this week. The gradual warm-up with affect relative humidities across the region, causing minimums to gradually decrease through the week. Daily minimums in the valley areas are largely expected between 20 and 30 percent which will also extend into the Sierra Nevada. Desert minRH values are expected to hover between 10 and 15 percent. However moderate to good overnight recoveries at 50 to 60 percent will limit significant fire weather concerns for the non-desert areas. Breezy conditions will exist over typical wind- prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through next week, though otherwise, winds will be mainly light and diurnal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford