Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
867 FXUS66 KHNX 082305 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 405 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Thick smoke from the Garnet Fire will move across the Sierra Nevada portions of Madera, Fresno and Tulare Counties this afternoon and overnight into Tuesday morning. A Dense Smoke Advisory is in effect for poor air quality and low visibilities affecting those areas. 2. Temperatures continue to drop through the week before a brief rebound over the weekend. 3. Thunderstorm chances are expected to return to the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday and last through Thursday, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and Thursday with a 10-30% probability for development concentrated to the mountains north of Tulare County. && .DISCUSSION... A major trough is making its way to California over the next few days bringing cooler temperatures. Latest probabilities have a major drop to a 20 percent chance or less of high temperatures of at least 85 degrees on Wednesday. In addition, Tuesday through Thursday brings a 10 to 40 percent chance of rain accumulation in the San Joaquin Valley with Merced and Mariposa having the highest probabilities. The foothills will have a 10 to 30 percent chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rain Wednesday and Thursday. Frontal thunderstorms also are possible over the Sierra Nevada TUesday through Thursday with a 10 to 30 percent chance. However, the trough pattern will continue to help push smoke from the Garnet Fire northeast into Nevada. Temperatures rebound on Friday and Saturday as the initial trough moves out and a weak ridge develops. However, a smaller second trough will slide into California Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures will slightly drop due to this second trough. && AVIATION... 00Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. Areas of low visibility in smoke will be lingering across the Sierra Foothills in Madera/Fresno/Tulare Counties through 18Z Tuesday, after which southwesterly flow aloft will push much of the smoke upslope towards the Sierra crest. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ320-325>329. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ320- 325>329. && $$ JPK/CM weather.gov/hanford