Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
938 FXUS66 KHNX 191927 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1227 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 40 to 60 percent probability for 0.10 inch or more of rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley today and a 10 to 25 percent probability for 0.25 inch or more. 2. There is a 50 to 80 percent probability for 0.25 inch or more of rainfall across the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County north and less than a 50 percent probability south of Fresno County. There is a 25 percent probability for 0.50 inch or more rainfall in Yosemite Valley today. 3. There is a 49 percent probability for 1 inch or more of snowfall at Tioga Pass on Today and a 24 percent probability for 2 inches or more. Snow levels will be around 9,000 feet. 4. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance for thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada and West Side Hills today, highest around Yosemite NP. There is a 15 to 20 percent chance for thunderstorms across the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills today. 5. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal today and warm slightly on Friday. Temperatures will warm significantly this weekend into next week. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of High temperatures reaching 100 degrees by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... For the remainder of today and tonight, expect the most active weather over the next several days. At this time, we`re mainly seeing minor changes in terms of the probabilistic data mentioned above. Latest radar data shows isolated thunderstorms developing in Yosemite NP; otherwise, a few light showers continue over the forecast area. Activity will continue to ramp up later this afternoon and evening, as the upper-level low moves south along the Central CA coast, and the heaviest precipitation will be mainly over western Kern County where the Flood Watch remains in effect until late this evening. Snow will likely develop later this afternoon or this evening over the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada, with the highest amounts (or around 2-4 inches) towards the crest; the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until late this evening for these areas. Afterward, the low will shift inland over southern CA by early Friday morning. Low cloud cover and lingering showers will continue over the Sierra and Kern County mountains until Friday afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures will be on the upward trend during Friday, with more noticeable warming over the weekend. Dry conditions prevail this weekend as high pressure ridging rebuilds over the Western U.S. Highs will rise towards seasonal averages on Saturday and above average by Sunday. A slight warmup occurs early next week, and highs will rise to the mid- upper 90`s on Monday. Above average temperatures persist for much of next week, and the best chance for a triple digit reading will be in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday (latest ensemble guidance shows at around 30-50 percent). && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires. Mountain obscuration over the Sierra Nevada through 12Z Thursday due to rain and snow showers. MVFR and local IFR ceilings/visibility and SHRA until 00Z Saturday for the Kern County mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ308-313-336. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ323- 326-328-330. && $$ BSO/AS weather.gov/hanford