Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
105 FXUS66 KHNX 250132 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 116 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong winter storm system will continue to impact Central California through mid week. 2. The winter storm system will bring an additional round of precipitation to the area on Monday and Tuesday. Portions of the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada. 3. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Wednesday. Total snowfall accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at the higher elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour. The probability of receiving another 18 inches of snow by 4 PM Tuesday is 88% for Tuolumne Meadows and 92% for Tioga Pass. 4. The probability of receiving at least one inch of rain by Wednesday is 85% for Merced, 96% in Fresno, 90% in Visalia, and 60% in Bakersfield. && .DISCUSSION... We are currently in a lull this afternoon before the rain we are expecting late tonight into tomorrow. We have a trough off the coast along with very high probabilities of Integrated Water Vapor Transport values of at least 250 kg/(m*s). This high IVT values brings a strong 60 to 95 percent probability of an inch or more of rain in the San Joaquin Valley by Wednesday morning. The high moisture value also brings high probabilities of heavy snow with a 30 to 50 percent probability of 18 inches or more of snow at 7,000 feet. There is a 50 percent chance of at least 24 inches of snow or more total above 8,000 feet. These high values have resulted in a continuation of the Winter Storm Warning through Wednesday afternoon. The highest probabilities will be in Fresno County and northward. However, Tejon and Tehachapi Passes will not see any snow due to the very warm nature of this storm. Model ensembles are showing the trough to exit California on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Ensembles are in agreement that a rex block off the coast will be established on Thursday leading to continuing spotty showers through Friday. However, the pattern changes as the rex block turns into a ridge. Latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have a 40 to 60 percent chance of below average precipitation and increasing probabilities of above average temperatures. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: We are expecting VFR conditions until 6Z when spots of MVFR starts appearing from north to south due to the rain showers and lower clouds. The Sierra Nevada can see IFR to MVFR conditions in the snow after 6Z. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 11/23/2024 14:38 EXPIRES: 11/24/2024 23:59 On Monday November 25 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ323- 326>331. && $$ public...JPK aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford